The Americas Quarterly Podcast

Ecuador is facing many of the same issues we see across Latin America today. Long one of the region’s most peaceful countries, it has recently seen a daunting increase in violence, as international drug cartels use the country as a transit point. It is also immersed in a debate about how and whether to exploit its oil and minerals, during an era of rapid climate change. Politics have been unstable this year. In October there will be a runoff for a new president to serve out the rest of Guillermo Lasso’s term, after he invoked a constitutional mechanism that triggered fresh elections for both the presidency and the legislature. In this episode, Brian Winter and Will Freeman discuss the two candidates, Luisa González and Daniel Noboa, and how Ecuador might fit into wider regional trends when it comes to ideological tendencies and environmental issues. Freeman, a columnist for Americas Quarterly, is a fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and a political scientist.

Mexico’s economy is shifting into a higher gear in 2023, thanks in part to stronger than expected investment from nearshoring. This July, we saw a historic moment as Mexico passed China to become the biggest exporter of goods to the United States, reclaiming that title for the first time in 20 years. What does this transformation mean in practice for Mexico's industrial hubs? Is the country taking full advantage of the nearshoring trend, or could it be doing more? What is the relevance of politics and the 2024 elections to investors' decisions? Our guests today are two Bloomberg journalists who recently reported from the industrial hub of Monterey, in the north of Mexico: Maya Averbuch, an Economy and Government Reporter based in Mexico City, and Leda Alvim, Markets Reporter at Bloomberg News, based in São Paulo. 

This month will mark the 50th anniversary of Augusto Pinochet’s coup in Chile. President Gabriel Boric has made the commemoration of that tragic chapter in Latin American history a major moment in his government, taking several initiatives to atone for the past, but the right is pushing back, at a moment when public opinion about the coup is changing. In 2005, an average of 24% thought that the military was right in carrying out the coup. In 2023, that number has risen to 36%. In the background is Chile's turbulent recent history: the massive protests that took place in 2019, the pandemic, an economic downturn, a security crisis, the rejection of last year’s proposed constitution and the ongoing attempt at drafting a new one. In such a context, how are we to interpret such poll numbers? What do discussions about the coup say about the state of politics in Chile today? And what does this moment mean for the country's future? Robert Funk, assistant professor of political science at the University of Chile, joins the podcast to discuss. 

Recent scandals involving former President Jair Bolsonaro have left Brazil’s conservative movement in a state of flux. Meanwhile, the Lula administration is off to a relatively calm and successful start, with a 60% approval rating, the economy expected to grow more than predicted and inflation under control. What does that mean for the country’s politics going forward? In this episode, Brian Winter is joined by Fábio Zanini, editor of the “Painel” political column at Folha de S. Paulo, who has spent years covering the conservative movement that brought Bolsonaro to power. They discuss what to expect from the opposition and what the current political climate in Brasília means for President Lula's economic agenda.

This is a critical moment for Latin America’s economies, with analysts foreseeing better than expected GDP growth this year in countries like Brazil and Mexico. The outlook, however, is uneven. In Argentina, Peru and Chile, there are big questions about where economies are headed, largely because of politics. In today’s episode, an overview of what to expect in upcoming months — where the risks lie, where there might be reasons for optimism and how external factors, like China’s growing economic problems, could affect the region. Our guest is Ernesto Revilla, head of Latin America economics at Citigroup.

The radical libertarian economist Javier Milei placed first in Argentina’s primary election, upsetting the two-party system of the past 20 years. Milei describes climate change as a socialist lie, advocates for closing the central bank and chastises Argentina’s political class as a self-dealing 'caste'. Milei's success echoes that of recent outsiders on the right like Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro, both of whom Milei has said he admires. In this episode, Brian Winter and political analyst and professor Ignacio Labaqui examine what explains his rise and if he actually has a chance to win when the real voting takes place in October. They also discuss the possible paths forward for the other candidates, Sergio Massa, of the governing Peronist coalition, and Patricia Bullrich, of the center-right party of former president Mauricio Macri.

Latin America is the world’s most vulnerable region to cyberattacks, according to one study, and has suffered several dramatic hacks recently in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and elsewhere. In this episode, Randy Pestana, Associate Director of Cyber Policy Program at Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy, Florida International University, tells the stories of some of the region's biggest attacks in recent years and explains why some countries are particularly vulnerable, who is responsible for the attacks and what governments, companies and individuals can and should do to protect themselves. 

Bernardo Arévalo, an academic, former diplomat, and son of a famed revolutionary president surprisingly made it to Guatemala's election runoff, upsetting the country's ruling elites. What could happen next? Is his candidacy in jeopardy? Who makes up the group that Guatemalans refer to as the 'pacto de corruptos' trying to undermine the nation's democracy? Is the U.S. using its influence to push for free and fair elections in Guatemala? In this conversation, former ambassador Stephen McFarland discusses how power operates in the country where he lived and worked for years and an election he describes as the most surprising in recent Central American history.

Argentina's presidential elections will take place in October, but the country is now fully in campaign mode. In this episode, AQ's Brian Winter and María Esperanza Casullo discuss surprising recent developments, such as the ruling coalition's decision to back Economy Minister Sergio Massa as their candidate, and the apparent decline in support for the right-wing libertarian Javier Milei. They dissect the chances for the main contestants, and whether any of them would be able to rescue Argentina from its long stretch of economic troubles and take advantage of the country’s potential as a source of oil and gas, lithium, and other commodities. Casullo, who is based in the southern province of Neuquén, also describes what the election looks like outside the Buenos Aires metropolitan area.

In the 2010s, corruption investigations dominated news headlines in Latin America, from Lava Jato in Brazil to La Línea in Guatemala. Nowadays, prosecutors, activists and journalists across the region continue their work of holding powerful politicians and business leaders to account, but they face a more difficult environment. That's the conclusion of the fifth edition of the Capacity to Combat Corruption (CCC) Index, produced by the Americas Society/Council of the Americas and Control Risks. In this episode, Geert Aalbers, a partner at Control Risks, explores some of the reasons behind these challenges and discusses the delicate status of anti-corruption efforts in places like Brazil, Mexico and Guatemala. Aalbers also explains why countries like Uruguay, Chile and Costa continue to rank high on the index and describes how Panama and the Dominican Republic improved their scores.