The Americas Quarterly Podcast

In the year since President Nayib Bukele marched soldiers into El Salvador’s legislative assembly, his critics say the leader’s threat to democracy has only grown. Now, as legislative elections on Feb. 28 promise Bukele a long-awaited majority, there are fears about what that could mean for checks and balances. In the latest episode of the AQ Podcast, guest host Brendan O’Boyle speaks to lawyer and researcher Claudia Umaña about the election’s stakes, Bukele’s resilient support, and the implications of a new administration in Washington.Guests:-Claudia Umaña is vice president of the Salvadoran Foundation for Economic and Social Development (FUSADES)-Brendan O’Boyle is senior editor of Americas QuarterlySupplemental Reading:"Surprise: El Salvador’s Anti-Corruption Commission Is Alive. But Can It Succeed?" by Noah Bullock and Chuck Call(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/surprise-el-salvadors-anti-corruption-commission-is-alive-but-can-it-succeed/)"Behind Nayib Bukele’s 'Shocking' Turn" by Brendan O'Boyle(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/behind-nayib-bukeles-shocking-turn/)"Q&A: Why El Salvador’s Crisis Is Different – and Worrying" by Brian Winter(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/qa-why-el-salvadors-crisis-is-different-and-worrying/)

Colombia reported some good news in 2020: The country’s homicide rate was its lowest in nearly five decades. But continued violence in rural communities – and a pandemic that is emboldening organized crime – has darkened the mood for many. Veteran foreign correspondent John Otis joins the podcast from Bogotá to break down what’s happening in the countryside and the implications for President Duque – and the coming contest to name his successor.Guests:- John Otis reports from Bogotá for NPR and The Wall Street Journal and is a consultant for the Committee to Protect Journalists.- Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Supplemental Reading:"School’s Out in Most of Latin America. Gangs Are Thrilled." by John Otis(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/schools-out-in-latin-america-gangs-are-thrilled/)"The Urgent Need to Reform Colombia’s Security Policies" by Juan Pappier(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/the-urgent-need-to-reform-colombias-security-policies/)

There are 16 candidates in Ecuador’s presidential election scheduled for Feb. 7, but polls suggest voters aren’t too excited about any of them. Whoever they settle on will have to work overtime to manage a country battered by a pandemic and a fiscal crisis. Political analyst Sebastián Hurtado joins the podcast to assess the country’s outlook and the leading presidential candidates, including a protégé of Former President Rafael Correa, the “incumbent” candidate who’s never been president, and the “outsider” who could surprise everyone.Guests:- Sebastián Hurtado is the co-founder and CEO of Prófitas, a political risk consultancy based in Quito.- Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Supplemental Reading:"Meet the Candidates: Ecuador"(https://americasquarterly.org/article/meet-the-candidates-ecuador/)"Who Is Andrés Arauz, Rafael Correa’s Pick to Lead Ecuador?" by Brendan O'Boyle (https://americasquarterly.org/article/andres-arauz-correa-proxy-or-new-leadership-for-ecuador/)

After a year like 2020, no one can confidently predict what the next 12 months will bring Latin America. What's clear, however, is that 2021 may be as transformative for the region as 2020 - for better or worse. The Council on Foreign Relation's Shannon O'Neil joins AQ's Brian Winter to preview the developments to watch in the new year, including the challenges of vaccine distribution, the questions looming over this year's critical elections, and the potential for collaboration with a new administration in Washington.Guests:-Shannon O’Neil is vice president and senior fellow for Latin America at the Council on Foreign Relations.-Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Supplemental Reading:"A Less Apocalyptic Case for Latin America," by Brian Winter(https://americasquarterly.org/article/a-less-apocalyptic-case-for-latin-america/)

When Luis Arce swore in as Bolivia's president a month ago, he confronted a dizzying host of challenges: a public health emergency, a polarized electorate, and an economy crippled by the pandemic. But Arce's first weeks in office have left many cautiously optimistic, including journalist Raúl Peñaranda, who sees the emergence of a "minimalistic" government that's less vengeful than he expected. On this week's podcast, Peñaranda discusses Arce's first month, the return of Evo Morales, the encouraging judicial reforms on the horizon, and the challenges of vaccine distribution and getting kids back in school.Guests:-Raúl Peñaranda is a Bolivian journalist and director of the news portal Brújula Digital.-Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Supplemental Reading:"Will Luis Arce Rebuild Bolivia’s Broken Judiciary?"(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/will-luis-arce-rebuild-bolivias-broken-judiciary/)

The arrest – and return – of General Salvador Cienfuegos by U.S. authorities were both surprising developments in what has already turned out to be an unpredictable U.S.-Mexico relationship under Presidents Donald Trump and Andrés Manuel López Obrador. But a “reevaluation of the Mexican approach” is likely in store when the Joe Biden administration takes over, says the Wilson Center’s Duncan Wood.Guests:-Duncan Wood is director of the Mexico Institute at the Wilson Center.-Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Supplemental Reading:"Latin America’s Militaries Are Back. What Does it Mean?" (https://www.americasquarterly.org/fulltextarticle/new-aq-latin-americas-militaries-are-back-what-does-it-mean/)

Joe Biden - not Donald Trump - will be the next U.S. president. What does that mean for Trump's biggest fan in South America, Jair Bolsonaro? How might a Biden victory change Brazil's relationship with China? AQ columnist Oliver Stuenkel joins editor-in-chief Brian Winter to break down what life after Trump could really mean for the Brazilian president and his base.Guests:-Oliver Stuenkel is a contributing columnist for Americas Quarterly and teaches international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in São Paulo.-Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Supplemental Reading:"Why a Trump Defeat Would Be a Disaster for Bolsonaro" by Oliver Stuenkel(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/why-a-trump-defeat-would-be-a-disaster-for-bolsonaro/)"Joe Biden Answers 10 Questions on Latin America"(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/updated-2020-candidates-answer-10-questions-on-latin-america/)

Chileans voted overwhelmingly to embark on what will be a long, expensive and imperfect journey to a new constitution. Despite the challenges, there's plenty of reason for optimism, says author and journalist Paula Schmidt. AQ's Brian Winter spoke with Schmidt about what we can expect next, the new constitution's potential to help close Chile's gender gap, and the marginalized community that Schmidt fears is being left out of the process.Guests:-Paula Schmidt is a journalist, a columnist in the digital newspaper El Líbero, and a professor at Chile’s Universidad de Los Andes.-Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Supplemental Reading:"The Politics of Chile’s New Constitution" by Patricio Navia (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/the-politics-of-chiles-new-constitution/)

Like his presidency in general, Donald Trump’s relationship with Latin America has not been without surprises. Among them: his unexpectedly close relationship with some of the region’s key leaders. But how have US-Latin America relations really changed under Trump – and where might they be headed if Trump surprises again and wins reelection? Juan Cruz, a former special advisor to the president, gave AQ’s Brian Winter an insider’s view on Trump’s approach to the region.Guests:- Juan Cruz is a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic & International Studies and the former point person on Latin America at the National Security Council under President Trump.- Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas QuarterlySupplemental Listening:"AQ Podcast: What a Biden Presidency Would Mean for Latin America"(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/aq-podcast-what-a-biden-presidency-would-mean-for-latin-america/)

The early days of the pandemic saw Argentines rally around their new president, Alberto Fernández. But “those days are over,” says pollster Alejandro Catterberg, who points to a resurgence in polarization as COVID cases spread and the economy sinks deeper into recession. That’s bad news for the half of the country that wants to move past the divisive politics of former Presidents Mauricio Macri and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, said Catterberg, who spoke to AQ’s Brian Winter from Buenos Aires.Guests:- Alejandro Catterberg is founder and director of Poliarquía Consultores, an Argentine polling firm.- Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Background Reading:"After the Default: Argentina’s Unsustainable '20/80' Economy" by Eduardo Levy Yeyati(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/after-the-default-argentinas-unsustainable-20-80-economy/)