The Americas Quarterly Podcast

Brazil's election results were much tighter than many predicted and former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and President Jair Bolsonaro are headed to a runoff on October 30. Although Lula is still a slight favorite, Bolsonaro has received key endorsements and bolsonarismo showed its strength, winning majorities in the House and the Senate as well as key governorships. In this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podcast, Brian Winter speaks to Sarah Maslin, Brazil correspondent for The Economist, about what explains the results and what we can expect from the campaign moving forward.

Colombian President Gustavo Petro was elected promising huge reforms. But since taking office, he has given mixed signals regarding how far, and how fast, his government might change Colombia’s economy, society and role in the world. Will the country’s class structure be significantly altered? Will there be a shift in drug policy? Will Colombia drop oil and coal from its energy matrix? And how much support do his proposals have? In this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podcast, Ricardo Ávila, senior analyst for the newspaper El Tiempo, takes stock of Petro’s first months as head of state and assesses how transformative his presidency could be.

As the dust begins to settle on Chileans’ emphatic rejection of their proposed new constitution, the political class has started negotiations for a new process. What provisions is the new charter likely to contain? Who might write it? Where does the rejection leave the young leftist president Gabriel Boric, and what will happen to Chile’s troubled economy amid such uncertainty? Isabel Aninat, Dean of the Faculty of Law at Adolfo Ibáñez University, answers these and other questions on this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podcast.

Brazil’s election is now entering its final stage, and President Jair Bolsonaro is consistently trailing former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. If the trend prevails, will Bolsonaro concede? Many in Brazil think he will not. In this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podcast, veteran political analyst Thomas Traumman examines the final weeks of the campaign and what could happen next. He discusses the latest poll numbers, Bolsonaro's narrowing options for victory, the crucial roles of gender and religion in the race, as well as what to expect from the military if Bolsonaro contests the results.

There is an unmistakable trend in Latin American politics today: the left is in charge in some of the region’s largest countries — Chile, Bolivia, Argentina, Colombia and Mexico. Brazil, the biggest economy, could soon join this cohort if former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the October election. This in many ways recalls the original pink tide of the 2000s. In this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podcast, international relations expert Oliver Stuenkel discusses what he expects from this new wave of leaders and what they represent for the region’s major economies and diplomatic relationships. He also gives his assessment of the presidential campaign in Brazil and what a Lula victory could mean for the region and for the new pink tide.

It has surprised many that there have been more disagreements between the US and Mexico under a Democratic presidency than under a Republican one. What explains this? Is the relationship, so critical to both countries, at risk of a genuine deterioration? What can we expect from Andrés Manuel López Obrador as he tries to navigate a weakened economy, rising violence and the upcoming 2024 elections? Professor, political analyst, writer and activist Denise Dresser takes on these and others questions in this episode of the Americas Quarterly Podcast.

Colombia’s Gustavo Petro will take office on August 7 with a lot on his plate. The country’s first ever leftist president has promised substantial reforms to Colombia’s economy and society. Polls show Colombians are optimistic and expectations are high. How much will it be possible to achieve? How pragmatic will a Petro government be and what are his odds of success? In this episode of the Americas Quarterly podcast, journalist Mariana Palau discusses the incoming government’s situation in Congress, as well as plans for the economy and peace in Colombia. Palau is a reporter with BluRadio and a Master of Public Policy candidate at Oxford University’s Blavatnik School of Government.

The surprise resignation of Argentina’s economy minister has raised concerns of an even deeper political and economic crisis. Where is the country headed? In this episode of the Americas Quarterly Podcast, María Esperanza Casullo, a political scientist and professor at the National University of Río Negro, explores what is behind the resignation, what can be expected from the new minister and from next year's presidential election, as well as why Argentina is not ripe for “outsider” candidates like much of the western world.

Across Latin America, talk is turning to the possibility of a global recession. How vulnerable is the region, and which countries might do better than others? In this AQ Podcast, Ernesto Revilla, head of Latin America economics at Citigroup, gives us an overview of the region’s economies, challenges like inflation and rising interest rates, and what the impact might be on politics, especially in countries with new governments like Colombia, Chile and Peru.

Colombia’s June 19 runoff between two strongly anti-establishment candidates tells us a lot about what’s happening in today’s Latin America, says Luis Alberto Moreno, a veteran observer of the region’s politics and former president of the Inter-American Development Bank. In this conversation, Moreno takes a long view of political developments, analyzing recent progress and setbacks. He discusses populism, inequality, economic growth and challenges to cooperation and trade between Latin American countries. Moreno does nevertheless have a glass-half-full perspective on the region, as outlined in a recent book. Moreno shares with the AQ podcast his reasons for optimism.