The Innovation Show

In this episode, Theodore Modis delves into the concept of 'Just-In-Time Replacement' and the optimal moment to introduce change in a natural growth process. He explores the science behind 'cascading S-curves' and how they influence industries, product families, and technologies. The episode also discusses the power of estimating overall saturation from life-cycle trends and offers insights into analyzing S-curves in different industries. Additionally, it explores the application of AI in identifying patterns and the Volterra-Lotka equation in predator-prey interactions.

Theodore Modis, author of "Predictions: Society's Telltale Signature Reveals the Past and Forecasts the Future," explores growth potential in China and India, the relationship between industrial innovation and economic development, the competition among diseases like cardiovascular and cancer, and the cycles and patterns of energy consumption worldwide.

Theodore Modis, expert in predicting social phenomena and author of 'Predictions: Society's Telltale Signature Reveals the Past and Forecasts the Future,' discusses the S-shaped growth curve, its application to organizations and species, the impact of speed limits on accident rates, natural growth curves and the wisdom of slow growth, and the importance of understanding invariants of human life and behavior.

In 2020, the World Economic Forum estimated that AI might destroy 85 million jobs by 2025. A 2022 study by the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) found that between 9 and 47% of jobs could be automated, particularly jobs requiring lower education levels or more routine tasks. Not surprisingly, workers, particularly low-skilled ones, perceive automation—specifically robots—as threatening their jobs. Fear and resentment toward job-stealing machines are not new. Throughout the series of overlapping industrial revolutions in history, many jobs were indeed diminished or replaced by machines. Yet, other jobs were created over time. Prof Yossi Sheffi shares his thoughts on the future of work and workers. We welcome back Professor Yossi Sheffi for the finale of our series on his book, "The Magic Conveyor Belt: Supply Chains, A.I., and The Future of Work."   00:00:00.000 The Impact of Automation on Jobs 00:02:39.488 The Fifth Industrial Revolution and Amplifying Human Creativity 00:03:46.708 Job Creation and Unemployment Rates 00:06:23.573 The Slow Pace of Job Displacement and Regulation 00:09:00.668 Technology Always Wins, Companies Must Invest in Workers' Skills 00:11:47.371 Negotiating for Skill Upgrades in the Advanced AI World 00:14:13.311 Regulation as a Short-Term Game, Reinvesting in Skills 00:16:12.024 The Impact of Automation on Logistics Jobs 00:17:26.473 The Rise of Autonomous Tracking and Workforce Preparation 00:19:36.312 The Impact of Model T on Job Creation 00:21:40.769 The Three Stages of Job Transformation: De-skilling, Scaling, Elimination 00:24:40.238 Job Changes and Creation in Automation 00:27:13.249 AI and Automation: Journalists' Fears and Future Job Opportunities 00:35:49.159 The Importance of Purpose After Retirement 00:36:50.790 The Importance of Investing in the Future 00:40:07.188 Staying Relevant in an Evolving Job Market 00:44:16.591 The Social Dimension of Automated Jobs 00:47:35.298 Embracing Change and Adapting to Working with Machines   That HBR article Yossi mentions:  https://hbr.org/2023/09/the-uaw-and-other-unions-must-focus-more-on-ai-and-automation-in-their-negotiations

Part 2 covers the “Further Complexity and Challenges” of supply chains, and you explore how the last 50 years have added even more complexity. This part covers the rising demand for goods and the increasing consumer expectations for fast, perfect delivery services. 00:00:00.751 Introduction: Further Complexity and Challenges in Supply Chains 00:01:41.748 The Evolution of Industrial Revolutions 00:14:39.859 Short-term Focus of Wall Street and Cost Cutting 00:16:51.371 Ethical Companies with Veto Power in Supply Chain 00:19:05.497 Complexity of Supply Chain Leads to Lack of Transparency 00:22:18.074 The Hidden Structure of Supply Chains Revealed 00:22:58.371 Supplier Secrecy and Business Management 00:24:55.140 The Horsemeat Scandal: Lack of Awareness 00:26:35.611 IKEA's Past Controversies and Sustainability Efforts 00:29:55.209 The Function of Free Trade Zones 00:35:23.620 The Dilemma of Climate Change and Consumer Behavior 00:39:22.406 VUCA: Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity in Supply Chains 00:41:55.300 Moving Final Production Step to Vietnam for Political Reasons 00:42:27.457 Environmental concerns and reliance on Chinese materials 00:45:22.956 Costly Investments in Emergency Operations and Drills 00:48:11.291 The Success Story of Private Equity and Innovation 00:50:47.965 The Bullwhip Effect: Supplier Reactions and Market Fluctuations Mentioned by Yossi: In a visit to MIT, FedEx founder Frederick Smith shares thoughts on innovation: https://news.mit.edu/2023/fedex-founder-frederick-smith-mit-visit-0215  

Today’s book explains why supply chains are complicated to operate (and getting more challenging!). Fortunately, future managers can employ a combination of suitably educated employees and digital technology to manage ever-higher complexity successfully. People and companies can use digital technologies to make themselves more efficient and more effective in addressing the expanding and changing needs of the planet. Our guest is the author of a 1985 textbook on transportation networks and eight management books dealing with supply chain resilience, sustainability, and industrial clustering; we welcome the author of The Magic Conveyor Belt: Supply Chains, A.I., and The Future of Work, we welcome Professor Yossi Sheffi.   00:00:00.067 The Challenges of Operating Supply Chains 00:03:23.626 The Complexity of Supply Chains and Appreciation for Efforts 00:05:21.979 The Complexity of Global Supply Chains 00:06:57.421 Complexity of Supply Chains in Automobile Industry 00:13:35.997 The Surprising Complexity of the Banana Supply Chain 00:18:23.385 The Supply Chain: Synchronizing Supply and Demand 00:24:35.818 Unforeseen Impacts: How Disruptions Ripple Through the Chain 00:30:00.944 Supply Chain Managers: Victims of their own Success 00:32:40.419 Insights on Outsourcing and Offshoring in China 00:33:34.670 China's Rise as a Manufacturing Powerhouse 00:38:56.587 Mysterious Fibers Replacing Materials in Airplanes 00:39:11.269 China's Dominance in Bonding Agents and Rare Earth Materials 00:40:52.177 The Unpleasant Choices in Balancing Priorities 00:43:40.989 Outsourcing, Offshoring, and the Complexity of Supply Chains 00:51:38.755 The Complex and Efficient Manufacturing of Cheap T-Shirts 00:53:42.528 Conspicuous Consumption and Food Waste in the United States

Gautam Mukunda is an internationally recognized expert in leadership and innovation. He often jokes that his life’s ambition is to have the world’s most confusing resume and that he’s most of the way there. Gautam is a Research Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Center for Public Leadership, Senior Advisor to America’s Frontier Fund, the author of Indispensable: When Leaders Really Matter (Harvard Business Review Press, 2012) and Picking Presidents: How To Make The Most Consequential Decision in the World (University of California Press, 2022), and the host of Nasdaq’s podcast World Reimagined with Gautam Mukunda. Gautam has been a professor at Harvard Business School and Distinguished Visiting Professor at Schwarzman College, Tsinghua University. He was Head of Research at Rose Park Advisors, a specialized investment firm founded by his mentor Clayton Christensen, that invests using the theories of disruptive innovation. He has published articles in Harvard Business Review, Foreign Policy, Security Studies, Slate, Fast Company, Parameters, Politics and the Life Sciences, and Systems and Synthetic Biology on topics including leadership, reforming the financial sector, military innovation, network-centric warfare, the security and economic implications of synthetic biology, and the TV show Mad Men. His work has been profiled in the New York Times, Atlantic, New Yorker, Economist, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, and on All Things Considered. He is the Exclusive Leadership Consultant to U.S. Soccer. Find https://www.gautammukunda.com/    

Paul Nunes, global managing director for thought leadership at Accenture Research, discusses creating a company that values innovators, balancing Wall Street expectations with innovation goals, managing to Wall Street, effective communication and leadership, predicting heart attacks and improving sleep patterns, the profound importance of cell phones, companies breaking new ground through strategies and resource allocation, and Jio's success in leveraging 4G technology.

This podcast explores the concept of the wise pivot and the importance of staying relevant in the digital age. It discusses the challenges companies face in balancing old, current, and new businesses, and the role of visionary leadership. The podcast also highlights the importance of leveraging technology to extend the life of old businesses and explores the challenges faced by senior managers in adapting to the rapidly changing digital environment.

In keeping with the metaphor of astronomy’s Big Bang theory, Paul named the four stages of the shark fin after critical events in the creation and predicted the end of our known universe. Let’s get into the four stages: The Singularity, The Big Bang, The Big Crunch and Entropy. Paul unpacks the rules that prop up these four stages.   00:00:00.769 Introduction and Overview of "Four Phases of Big Bang Disruption" 00:03:14.786 Importance of Truth Tellers and Pinpoint Market Entry 00:11:11.771 From Idea to Product: Rapid Sales Success 00:15:34.394 The Importance of Being First in a Competitive Market 00:17:00.996 The concept of bullet time in movies explained 00:19:11.133 The need to anticipate how incumbents will slow time 00:20:34.611 The Strategic Thinking in Chess and Business 00:30:44.407 Recognizing Industry Shifts: The iPod and Toshiba Hard Drive 00:35:05.831 Phillips' Transition to LED Bulbs and Exiting the Lighting Business 00:38:39.902 Profiting from the Wreckage: Escape Your Own Black Hole 00:41:02.475 The challenges of transitioning and maintaining customer commitments 00:44:31.607 Moving on from the past and finding new opportunities