More or Less

It’s the fourth anniversary of the earthquake which devastated the city of L’Aquila in Italy and which led to the conviction of six scientists and an official who failed to predict the disaster. Scientists and statisticians worldwide were alarmed at the six-year sentences for manslaughter the seven accused received. It was feared the prospect of being put on trial would put off scientists from even trying to communicate risk – a very difficult business. But the risk assessors’ pendulum seems to have swung the other way. Data and alarms about tremors are being issued regularly, triggering school closures and building evacuations. But how useful is this information? Ruth Alexander speaks to Ian Main, professor of seismology and rock physics at Edinburgh University in the UK, who puts the risks into context.

Expert in gold and its properties, Wesley Stephenson, discusses estimating the size of a cube made from all the world's gold. The podcast explores discrepancies in global gold estimates, historical records, past mining methods, valuable treasures, modern extraction technologies, distribution in jewelry and government reserves, skepticism surrounding Fort Knox's gold, counterfeit gold, and economic factors impacting gold reserves.

With an avalanche of 2.5 quintillion bytes of data generated daily, could this be used to change our lives and does it have a darker side?

Only last week Ivory Toldson heard the speaker say there are more black men in prison in America than in college. ‘Here we go again’ he thought. Only the week before he had written his second article on why this statistic is not true. This week Ruth Alexander looks at where this ‘fact’ came from and why it is still being used. Also, why the opinion polls got the Kenyan elections wrong.

With the news that a baby has been ‘cured’ of HIV what do the numbers tell us about the epidemic. Ruth Alexander looks at the changes in the way that the disease has been measured. Also the Dow Jones hit an all-time high this week so is it party time for investors?

Kenya votes for its next President on 4th March. The opinion polls show that it is neck-and-neck between the two main candidates but an influential Kenyan political scientists has warned that the polls are wrong. Mutahi Ngunyi’s predicting a win for Uhuru Kenyatta and his Jubilee Coalition because of what he describes as ‘the tyranny of numbers’ - there are simply more registered voters from the ethnic groups that are likely to support Kenyatta than those for his rival Raila Odinga. But will Kenyans vote along ethnic lines – Ruth Alexander finds out. Also, was the Pope the subject of divine intervention when lightning struck St Peter’s Basilica at the Vatican just after he announced he was stepping down? Or was it just a coincidence. More or Less looks at the chances of this occurring.

This week Tim Harford asks how the figure of 1.2 billion Catholics world-wide is calculated. He also tests the claims of the controversial video, 'Muslim Demographics' shown at the Vatican by the Ghanaian Papal candidate Cardinal Peter Turkson.

This week Ruth Alexander looks at Manchester United versus Real Madrid in the last 16 of the Champions League. Real Manager Jose Mourinho says this was the match the "world has been waiting to see". It pitched two of Europe's biggest clubs against each other in what is a supposed to be a money spinner for broadcasters and sponsors alike. But how do we know how big the interest is? Manchester United claim 650 million fans worldwide, but how can we know? Nick Harris of SportingIntelligence.com and Richard Brinkman of KantarMedia help us look at the figures. Also: this round of the Champions League has been a statistical surprise. The rehearsal and the real draw threw up the same fixtures meaning that the same teams were picked to play each other in both draws. Statistician Michael Wallace helps us calculate the chances of this happening.

Canada has stopped distributing its smallest coin –the one cent or the penny. This week Ruth Alexander looks at why some countries get rid of their smallest coins and some just cannot part with them. Also which country has the coin with the smallest monetary value?

This week Ruth Alexander looks at the extraordinary case of Andreas Georgiou the head of the Greek statistics agency, Elstat. He is facing criminal charges for what amounts to statistical treason. It is a story that goes to the heart of the Greek debt crisis, that includes extreme office politics, alleged e-mail hacking and a statistician facing at least five years in prison. We speak to Economists Miranda Xafa and Professor Yanis Vourafafkis as well as Syriza MP Dimitris Tsoukalas. Also: do American football players die earlier than their fellow Americans?