More or Less: Behind the Stats

What do we know about how deadly the Ebola virus is, and how likely is it that there might be an outbreak of the virus in the United States or Europe?

After three tragic airline incidents in eight days, is flying becoming more dangerous? Wesley Stephenson looks at the statistics behind air travel to find out? And which is the most successful nation in Commonwealth Games history? Australia, Canada, England – not even close. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

The Pope was reported to have said that 2% of Catholic clergy were paedophiles. Is this a big number? Wesley Stephenson looks at the research on the prevalence of paedophilia and how the Catholic clergy compare to the world's population as a whole. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

The Tour de France has reached the mountains, but what does it take to be a good climber and why are the cyclists thin and bony, while sprinters are bigger with bulging muscles? And what is the best body type to win the yellow jersey? Also are 24,000 people really killed by lightning each year? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

Maths book author Rob Eastaway discusses the probability of winning a Golden Ticket in 'Charlie and the Chocolate Factory' with students. The episode also explores the impact of age on World Cup football outcomes and whether older players have an advantage. Insightful analysis on probability and sports dynamics.

Exploring the 'Obesity Paradox' and whether overweight individuals have a longer life expectancy, along with the impact of adult dietary choices on children's health. Delving into the correlation between FIFA bonuses and team performance at the World Cup, and examining the use of loss aversion as a motivational tool in football teams.

Football analyst Michael Cox from ZonalMarking.net joins the host to analyze if this is truly the greatest World Cup ever. They discuss the decline of tiki-taka, the evolution of playing styles, and the excitement of the tournament with high goal counts and talented teams.

Exploring the effectiveness of direct cash transfers in rural Kenya, the impact on household welfare, and the ethical challenges in aid projects. Could randomised controlled testing revolutionise how we measure the impact of aid?

Freakonomics guru Steven Levitt joins us to talk about an unusual experiment – getting people to agree to make major life decisions based on the toss of a coin. Is this really good social science? And what do the results tell us about decision making and happiness? And with 365 days in the year, it feels like a huge coincidence when we meet someone with the same birthday. But you only need 23 people to have a better than even chance that two will share a birthday. This counter-intuitive result is known as the birthday paradox, and the best place to look for proof is the World Cup, where 32 squads of 23 players provide an ideal data-set. Alex Bellos crunches the numbers for us. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

"Religion Makes People More Generous"- according to The Daily Telegraph's interpretation of a new BBC poll on charitable giving. Tim Harford investigates whether there is a link between practising a religion and whether we give. Plus: Big data - the hype says it will help deliver everything from increased corporate profits to better healthcare but are we being blinded to basic statistical lessons learned over the past two hundred years? And it feels like a huge coincidence, but you only need 23 people to have a better than even chance of meeting someone with the same birthday. This is the birthday paradox, and the best place to look for proof is the World Cup, where 32 squads of 23 players provide an ideal data-set. Alex Bellos crunches the numbers for us.