More or Less: Behind the Stats

Can horoscopes predict diseases? Analyzing birth month correlations with health risks. Evolution of Duckworth-Lewis method in cricket scoring trends, adapting to modern gameplay. Potential need for major revisions in scoring patterns.

Global Footprint We’re often told that we consume so much that we need one and a half planets. It comes from the Global Footprint Network a think-tank that has pioneered ecological foot-printing but what does that number even mean, and is it helpful? Chocolate makes you thinner We tell the story behind the chocolate experiment designed to deliberately fool the press. Concerned about the amount of pseudo-science surrounding diet and nutrition, John Bohannon and Peter Onneken ran a trial and had the results published in an online journal, sent out a press release. While the results were correct the trial wasn’t very robust but this didn’t stop the story that chocolate made you thinner running in newspapers, magazines and on TV around the world. Peter and John had fooled the press and they made a documentary about it. But the experiment has sparked a debate about whether it was ethical to fool the press in this way and whether the whole project was just self-serving.

It's the last in the series so we're packing in the statistical goodies so that you can go into numerical hibernation until August. We're looking at the street value of drugs: when police claim that they've confiscated hundreds of millions of pounds worth of narcotics, where do those numbers come from? And how has the dark internet changed drug prices? We'll also be looking at claims that those of us who aren't binging on drugs are binging on biscuits instead. Apparently much of the UK and almost the entire population of Ireland is going to be obese before long. But how have such alarming forecasts fared in the past? We're often told that we consume so much that we need one and a half planets - and not just to provide room for all those obese people. What does that number even mean, and is it helpful? And Richard Thaler, the co-author of "Nudge", joins us to talk about the psychology of risk.

The podcast explores the high number of migrant worker deaths in Qatar, comparing death tolls across different projects and investigating discrepancies in official data. It also delves into the challenges faced by migrant workers, including low wages and limited mobility. Additionally, the podcast discusses a challenging math exam question involving calculating probabilities with sweets.

Exploring the questionable link between World Cup and migrant deaths in Qatar. Debunking misconception of worker fatalities. Navigating vaccine controversies and scientific hoaxes. Discussing ethical media reporting and complex probability problems.

On 23 May, the mathematician John Nash was killed in a car crash, alongside his wife Alicia. The couple were in their 80s. Professor Nash was on his way home from Norway after receiving the prestigious Abel prize for mathematics. He also won the Nobel memorial prize in economics in 1994, and was made famous far beyond academia when he was played by Russell Crowe in the film, A Beautiful Mind. Tim Harford takes a look back at his life with economist Peyton Young who knew Nash well. Tim also looks at how many species of owl there are. A much more difficult question to answer than you would think.

This week: Seven Day NHS. As a commitment appears in the Queen's Speech to introduce a 'truly seven day-a-week NHS' we look at David Cameron's assertion that mortality rates are 16% higher for people admitted on a Sunday over those admitted on a Wednesday. And is seven day working really about saving lives. John Nash The mathematician and scientist, Nobel Laureate and subject of the film a beautiful mind was killed in car accident earlier this month. We look at why he was so important to game theory. Productivity? We're told we have a productivity problem in the UK. What is it, how is it measured and why is it so low in the UK compared to other economies. We get an economist to explain the answers to a listener. What is a generation? A loyal listener has asked how you measure a generation. We ask a sociologist and a demographer. Animal Slaughter How many animals are killed each day for food? One claim suggested it was half a billion worldwide, which sounds like a lot to us. Are we really pigging out to such an extent? Are we all so hungry we could all eat a horse? Or is this just a load of bull?

Death Row exoneration statistics. Recently it’s been claimed that for every nine people executed in the US, one person has been exonerated. Is this true – and do the statistics vary state to state?

The Police Federation says female drivers aren’t heeding the drink drive warnings. Tim Harford attempts to find out the numbers behind this. Plus: the Rotterdam Effect; Death Row exonerations; pub closures; and owl counting.

How computers are fooled by big numbers. Chris Baraniuk, technology journalist, talks about the simple software bug that has led to explosions, missing space probes, and more. Plus, an update on the two mothers-to-be whose due dates we analysed earlier on in the year.