

More or Less: Behind the Stats
BBC Radio 4
Tim Harford and the More or Less team try to make sense of the statistics which surround us. From BBC Radio 4
Episodes
Mentioned books

May 6, 2019 • 10min
Avengers - Should we reverse the snap?
Anthropologist Professor Sharon DeWitte and fictionomics blogger Zachary Feinstein PHD discuss the economics of Thanos' snap, comparing it to historical events like the Black Death. They explore the consequences of restoring the population versus embracing a reduced size, effects of population loss on Earth, and debunk Malthusian economics in light of real-world examples.

May 3, 2019 • 24min
Nurses, flatmates and cats
Nurse suicide ratesThere were some worrying figures in the news this week about the number of nurses in England and Wales who died by suicide over the last seven years. We try to work out what the numbers are really telling us. Are 27 million birds killed a year by cats?Newspapers reported this week that 27 million birds are killed by cats each year. We find out how this number - which might not really be "news" - was calculated.How rare are house shares?A listener got in touch to say she was surprised to read that only 3% of people aged 18 to 34 live in a house share with other people. She feels it must be too low – but is she living in a London house-sharing bubble? We find out.Proving that x% of y = y% of xWhy is it that 4% of 75 is the same as 75% of 4? Professor Jennifer Rogers from the University of Oxford joins Tim in the studio to explore a mind-blowing maths ‘trick’.Presenter: Tim Harford
Producers: Charlotte McDonald, Darin Graham and Beth Sagar-Fenton

Apr 29, 2019 • 10min
Bernie Sanders and the cost of having a baby
Bernie Sanders, a Senator in the United States and one of the front-runners in the campaign to be the Democratic presidential candidate, said on Twitter that it costs $12,000 to have a baby in his country. He compared that figure to Finland, where he said it costs $60. In this edition of More or Less, Tim Harford looks at whether Sanders has got his figures right. With Carol Sakala of US organisation Childbirth Connection and Mika Gissler of the National Institute for Health and Welfare, Finland. Producer: Darin Graham
Presenters: Tim Harford and Charlotte McDonald Image: A newborn baby's hand.
Credit:Getty Images/TongRo Images Inc

Apr 26, 2019 • 28min
Hottest Easter, Insects, Scottish villages
Was it a surprise that Easter Monday was so hot?A heatwave struck the UK over Easter – and in fact Easter Monday was declared the hottest on record in the UK. But listeners asked - is it that surprising that it was the warmest when the date fell so late in April? We crunch the numbers supplied by the Met Office.InsectageddonInsects live all around us and if a recent scientific review is anything to go by, then they are on the path to extinction. The analysis found that more than 40% of insect species are decreasing and that a decline rate of 2.5% a year suggests they could disappear in 100 years. And as some headlines in February warned of the catastrophic collapse of nature, some More or Less listeners questioned the findings. Is insect life really in trouble?Collecting income tax from the 1%Recently Lord Sugar said in a Tweet “The fact is if you taxed everyone earning over £150k at a rate of 70% it would not raise enough to pay for 5% of the NHS.” Is that true? Helen Miller, Deputy Director and head of tax at the Institute for Fiscal Studies looks at how much such a policy might raise from the 1% of tax payers who earn over £150,000.Where is Scotland’s highest village?A battle is brewing in the Southern Scottish uplands between two rival villages. How can statistics help determine which village should take the crown? Wanlockhead and Leadhills both lay claim to the title of Scotland’s highest village but there can only be one winner. More or Less attempts to settle the age old dispute once and for all.Image: A man and woman sitting on deckchairs on the beach
Credit: Getty Images

Apr 19, 2019 • 9min
The economic impact of mega sporting events
The Olympic Games and the football World Cup, two of the biggest events in the world which are each hosted every four years, are big business. And it costs a lot of money to host them, and a lot of the money comes from public funds. In this week’s edition of More or Less, we’ll be finding out – after all the sporting activities are over – how realistic were those economic predictions? Producer: Darin Graham Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Editor: Richard Vadon Picture Credit: Fang Guangming/Southern Metropolis Daily/VCG

Apr 15, 2019 • 9min
Where is Scotland’s highest village?
A battle is brewing in the Southern Scottish uplands between two rival villages. How can statistics help determine which village should take the crown? Wanlockhead and Leadhills both lay claim to the title of Scotland’s highest village but there can only be one winner. More or Less attempts to settle the age old dispute once and for all. Presenter: Phoebe KeanePicture: A village in the Southern Scottish uplands.
Credit: Jan Halfpenny

Apr 8, 2019 • 9min
Rounding up the weed killer cancer conundrum
A recent scientific review claims the weed killer glyphosate raises the risk of developing the cancer non-Hodgkin lymphoma by 41 percent. But deciding what causes cancer can be complicated and there are lots of people and organisations on different sides arguing for against this. So in this edition of More or Less, we look at the disagreements and how the authors of the review came up with the results. With cancer epidemiologist Dr Geoffrey Kabat, Toxicologist Dr Luoping Zhang and statistician Sir David Spiegelhalter. Producer: Darin Graham Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Editor: Richard Vadon
Picture: Tractor spraying a field of wheat
Credit: Getty Images

Apr 2, 2019 • 10min
Chess cheats and the GOAT
Who is the greatest chess player in history? And what does the answer have to do with a story of a chess cheating school from Texas? In this week’s More or Less, the BBC’s numbers programme, David Edmonds finds out what a statistical analysis of chess moves can teach us about this ancient board game. Presenter: David Edmonds
Producer: Darin GrahamImage: A Chess Board
Credit: Getty Images

Mar 25, 2019 • 9min
Is Mansa Musa the richest person of all time?
Mansa Musa, the 14th century Mali king, has nothing on Jeff Bezos - read one recent news report. Musa set off on a pilgrimage to Saudi Arabia in the 1300s and it’s said he left with a caravan of 60,000 people. Among them were soldiers, entertainers, merchants and slaves. A train of camels followed, each carrying gold. In recent reports, he has been described as the richest person that ever lived. He has been compared to some of the wealthiest people alive today. But how can we know the value of the ‘golden king’s’ wealth and can we compare a monarch to the likes of Amazon founder Bezos? In this edition, historian Dr Emmanuel Ababio Ofosu-Mensah of the University of Ghana in Accra explains who Mansa Musa was and Kerry Dolan of Forbes talks to us about rich lists. Producer: Darin Graham
Editor: Richard Vadon (Image: Painting of Mansa Musa, Credit: Getty Images)

Mar 18, 2019 • 9min
Day light saving time and heart attacks
Does the sudden loss of an hour of sleep raise the risk of having a heart attack?