On The Market

Rising interest rates, a new recession, high unemployment, and much more economic uncertainty could be on the way. But what can you expect after such a turbulent past few years? The US took significant financial and monetary moves to prevent an economic collapse in 2020, but as a result, mistakes were made. In 2023, we’re paying for the economic “errors” of our past, and many of them haven’t even caught up to us yet.Jason Furman, Harvard professor and former Director of the National Economic Council under President Obama, brings both optimism and realism to share. In Jason’s eyes, the “supply-based inflation” argument isn’t holding up, and something much more severe is causing prices to rise as rapidly as they are. So how do we get out of this bind? Jason shares the scenarios that would have to unfold for us not to end up in a recession or with higher interest rates, but reality foreshadows something much different.When will we break out of this constant cycle of price hikes? What has to happen for the Fed to finally take its foot off the gas? Will today’s strong employment last, or do jobs need to be cut for the economy to recover? Stick around to hear these questions, and many more, answered by one of the world’s leading economists.In This Episode We Cover2023 economic forecasts from one of the world’s leading economistsThe true cause of today’s rampant inflation and what could finally force it to stopThe “wage-price persistence” and why most people are wrong about price hikes Economic “errors” of 2020 and 2021 that we’ll be paying back for years to comeRising rates and whether or not the Fed is really done with bumping basis pointsUnemployment and how long today’s strong job market will actually lastConsequences of the US defaulting on its debt and the scary-enough odds that it could happen And So Much More!Links from the ShowFind an AgentFind a LenderBiggerPockets ForumsBiggerPockets AgentBiggerPockets BootcampsJoin BiggerPockets for FREEOn The MarketJoin the Future of Real Estate Investing with FundriseConnect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” ForumsSubscribe to The “On The Market” YouTube ChannelDave's BiggerPockets ProfileDave's InstagramKathy's BiggerPockets ProfileKathy's Instagram“Catastrophic” Consequences of the US Defaulting on Its DebtThe Fed Starts Playing “Mind Games” as Rates Rise, Home Prices FallConnect with Jason:Jason's TwitterCheck the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-106Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The most significant wealth transfer in American history could be upon us. As money-printing mania continues worldwide, dollars (and most other currencies) are worth less and less, while tangible assets, like real estate, are worth more. This is bad news for the average American, with most of their wealth trapped in a bank account or stock portfolio. If the most commonly used assets, like bonds, equities, and cash, become worthless, what happens to America?To help answer this seemingly unfathomable question is Chris Martenson, CEO of Peak Prosperity. Chris spent his early career working for some of the largest corporations in America, but after bubbles started to burst in the early 2000s, he took a look into the inner workings of the American economy. What initially started as a simple interest became an all-consuming quest to understand why political executives and massive institutions like the Federal Reserve were making irrational choices for the American people.In today’s show, Chris uncovers the truth behind quantitative easing, money-printing, and the Fed’s consistent financial swerving. He’ll also explain why bubbles are starting to burst in today’s economy, how interest rates had a large part to play in inflation, the new reality of de-dollarization, and why we may be on the cusp of the largest wealth transfer in American history. If Chris is correct, we could enter an entirely new era of the economy, one that only a few of us will thrive in.  In This Episode We CoverMoney-printing and the true effects of the Fed’s massive quantitative easingAsset price bubbles and which are the closest to bursting in 2023 Interest rate hikes and how they’ve contributed to hideous inflation De-dollarization and how America’s wealth could be at risk if USD loses its global statusDefaulting on the US debt and what happens if the government can’t pay its bills The new American wealth transfer and why only these “productive” assets will survive The most important “capital” anyone can have if/when the economy breaks down And So Much More!Links from the ShowFind an AgentFind a LenderBiggerPockets ForumsBiggerPockets AgentBiggerPockets BootcampsJoin BiggerPockets for FREEOn The MarketJoin the Future of Real Estate Investing with FundriseConnect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” ForumsSubscribe to The “On The Market” YouTube ChannelDave's BiggerPockets ProfileDave's InstagramJames' BiggerPockets ProfileJames' InstagramCommercial Real Estate Could Crash, But Are Everyday Investors Impacted?The BIG Economic Implications of US Bank FailuresGet Real Estate Market Insights from Cohen & SteersConnect with Richard:Richard's LinkedInCheck the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-105Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Multifamily and commercial real estate has been the butt of the joke over the past year. As mortgage rates started to rise, commercial real estate investors were hit hard, as profits became pitiful and asking prices laughable. For months, the media has been predicting a commercial real estate crash, citing a wave of mortgages coming due with sellers who won’t be able to pay the high price of a refinance. And while these fundamentals aren’t wrong, a mortgage meltdown might not be a reality.So instead of speculating, we brought on Richard Hill, Head of Real Estate Strategy & Research at Cohen & Steers, to differentiate the facts from fiction. Richard knows that loans are coming due, and buyers with low-rate adjustable mortgages may be in trouble. But that’s not the whole story, and some parts of commercial real estate could be primed for massive growth that residential investors have no clue about. The opportunities could be flowing soon for those who know where to look.In this episode, Richard will talk about the true risk of commercial real estate mortgages, which sectors are in the most trouble, which are being blown out of proportion, and how much investors can expect prices to drop. Plus, Richard gives his take on the three best times to invest in a quickly changing market like we’re seeing today. In This Episode We CoverThe commercial real estate “crash” and how far prices will actually fall Commercial debt coming due and which sectors have the highest risk Bank failures and what’s causing big banks to dump their commercial loans The future of financing for commercial investments and whether funding will become a challenge Mortgage exposure and why demanding LTV (loan-to-value) requirements make for better investments The astronomical tax implications of defaulting on your mortgage (DON’T Do this)When to buy and which industries are primed for growth in the next few years And So Much More!Links from the ShowFind an AgentFind a LenderBiggerPockets ForumsBiggerPockets AgentBiggerPockets BootcampsJoin BiggerPockets for FREEOn The MarketJoin the Future of Real Estate Investing with FundriseConnect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” ForumsSubscribe to The “On The Market” YouTube ChannelDave's BiggerPockets ProfileDave's InstagramJames' BiggerPockets ProfileJames' InstagramCommercial Real Estate Could Crash, But Are Everyday Investors Impacted?The BIG Economic Implications of US Bank FailuresGet Real Estate Market Insights from Cohen & SteersLinks from the ShowRichard's LinkedInCheck the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-104Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Homebuyers are gearing up for a hot summer housing market as demand starts to surge. At the beginning of 2023, nobody thought it possible that we’d be in the position we’re in today. Days on market have shrunk in some areas as listing attendance explodes and buyers' home-owning dreams resurface. But it’s not all sunshine and rainbows in the world of real estate; something bleak is on the horizon for large-scale investors.We’re halfway through Q2 of 2023, and the real estate market is changing fast month by month. Multifamily buyers are sitting on the sidelines, foaming at the mouth to dig in on deals that will soon be dead, but primary residence shoppers are facing another challenge. With a lack of inventory and mortgage rates on the verge of falling again, the buyers who were kicked out of the market last year are hungry to get back in the game.Don’t know whether now is the right time to buy your next rental property? Kathy and James give up-to-date advice on what they’re pursuing in today’s market and whether or not now is the time to get aggressive. If you want to get the data these (and many other) experts use to make their investment decisions, check out Dave’s newest Q2 housing market report!In This Episode We CoverA Q1 housing market roundup and why the market flipped even with high mortgage ratesNew inflation data and why consumer prices aren’t dropping yetWhether or not another interest rate hike could hit homebuyers this yearHousing demand and why sellers are seeing a BIG boost in buyer activityOur Q2 housing market predictions and what to do if you’re on the fence about investingThe BEST online sources to pull housing data from, plus Dave’s newest Q2 housing market report And So Much More!Links from the ShowFind an AgentFind a LenderBiggerPockets ForumsBiggerPockets AgentBiggerPockets BootcampsJoin BiggerPockets for FREEOn The MarketJoin the Future of Real Estate Investing with FundriseConnect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” ForumsSubscribe to The “On The Market” YouTube ChannelDave's BiggerPockets ProfileDave's InstagramJames' BiggerPockets ProfileJames' InstagramKathy's BiggerPockets ProfileKathy's InstagramGrab the Q2 ReportPast Episodes Mentioned in Today’s Show:Altos ResearchRocket MortgageConnect with Other Investors on the “On the Market” ForumsData Sources Mentioned:FREDHousing WireMarcus and MillichapRedfin Data Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-103Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Don’t you miss the “normal” housing market? You know, a few years back when buyers didn’t have to bludgeon other bidders just to get into a reasonably priced house? The times when the average American could afford a roof over their head, and sellers actually had a reason to put their homes on the market. Well, we may be returning to a “normal” housing market faster than you think, but a few key things will need to happen first.We’re back on On the Market, bringing you the most up-to-date housing market headlines, separating fact from fiction, and giving you everything you need to know to make the best investment decisions. This time, we’re running through four of the top stories in our newsfeeds. First, James touches on the $1.5T ticking time bomb that commercial real estate faces and what happens if a wave of debt gets defaulted on.Next, we’ll shift into more residential territory as Kathy dissects the “divided” housing market and updates us on how post-pandemic boomtowns are faring. Then, a return to normalcy, as Henry hits on how the 2023’s housing market correction could give homebuyers some leverage they deserve. Finally, mortgage rate updates and whether or not the spring season of homebuying will “survive” as buyers see a bump in their rates. Stick around to get all the info you need to build your real estate portfolio, so when ChatGPT takes your job, you’ll have some passive income to rely on!In This Episode We CoverPost-inflation car, food, and gas prices and Kathy’s $20 carton of eggs Commercial real estate debt and what happens if owners start to default The “divided” housing market and how cities that saw MASSIVE appreciation are faring nowThe 2023 real estate correction and good news for buyers as the market starts to stabilize Mortgage rate bumps and whether or not this will hurt the traditionally hectic spring homebuying season Using ChatGPT to find real estate deals, write property descriptions, and get more deals done And So Much More!Links from the ShowFind an AgentFind a LenderBiggerPockets ForumsBiggerPockets AgentBiggerPockets BootcampsJoin BiggerPockets for FREEOn The MarketJoin the Future of Real Estate Investing with FundriseConnect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” ForumsSubscribe to The “On The Market” YouTube ChannelDave's BiggerPockets ProfileDave's InstagramHenry's BiggerPockets ProfileHenry's InstagramJames' BiggerPockets ProfileJames' InstagramJamil's BiggerPockets ProfileJamil's InstagramKathy's BiggerPockets ProfileKathy's InstagramArticles Mentioned in Today’s Show:Commercial DebtDivided Housing Market2023 Housing Market CorrectionWill Spring’s Market “Survive?Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-102Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

High mortgage rates chewed up and spit out homebuyers, loan officers, and the mortgage industry. With a bump of a few percentage points, buyers exited the market quickly, and the number of mortgages got cut in half almost instantly. But what else can you expect from the most significant mortgage rate movement in forty years? Now, nearly a year after mortgage rates took their initial hike, there may be some hope on the horizon that we’re returning to better days for both buyers and sellers.But who better to ask about mortgages than the President of Rocket Mortgage, Tim Birkmeier? Tim has been in the mortgage industry for over two decades, working his way up from loan officer to president, helping turn Rocket Mortgage from a regional company into America’s largest mortgage lender. He knows loans inside and out and has some predictions on how loans could change over the next few years.Tim touches on why FHA loans are seeing a comeback (especially as their fees get cut), why HELOCs are in an equity-based revival, and how to “lock in” your mortgage rate so you don’t get stuck buying when basis points jump up. So if you’re itching to get back in the real estate game but don’t know how long high mortgage rates will last, stick around! Tim has answers only an industry-leading expert would know.In This Episode We CoverMortgage rate hikes and what 6% interest rates did to the housing marketFHA’s comeback and why your mortgage insurance cost is about to go downUpgrading vs. moving and why homeowners and taking more equity out than ever beforeRate buydowns and Rocket’s “Inflation Buster” program to keep your payment lowNew digital mortgage transactions and the future of getting approvedBuyer demand and whether or not the seller stalemate will soon be overAnd So Much More!Links from the ShowAgent FinderLender FinderBiggerPockets ForumsBiggerPockets AgentBiggerPockets BootcampsJoin BiggerPockets for FREEOn The MarketJoin the Future of Real Estate Investing with FundriseConnect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” ForumsSubscribe to The “On The Market” YouTube ChannelDave’s BiggerPockets ProfileDave’s Instagram2023 Mortgage Rate OutlookConnect with Tim:Tim's LinkedInCheck the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-101Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Got a high credit score? Your mortgage could get more expensive. And no, this episode isn’t releasing on Opposite Day. New mortgage rules are incentivizing those with poor credit while punishing those that have built up their credit. And while this may seem like we’re venturing back to the days of subprime mortgages, there may be some real reasoning behind this newest mortgage rule change.Welcome to the 100th episode of On the Market! It’s been a year since our first episode, and thanks to Dave, Henry, James, Jamil, and Kathy, we’ve rocked the charts with some of the most up-to-date real estate data around. This time, Dave and our panel of guests will share their favorite episodes and go over some of the latest headlines affecting the housing market.First, we’ll touch on how mortgage rules have changed and why high credit score borrowers could be in the crosshairs for more expensive fees. Next, California targets the upper-middle-class, kind-of-wealthy, but not-so-ultra-rich residents with their newest “mansion tax,” which targets houses that aren’t exactly mansions! Finally, a fractional ownership debate and an update on the latest landlord law that could give tenants more property protections.Thanks for joining us for 100 episodes of On the Market! And special thanks to our producer, Kailyn Bennett, for making it all happen. Here’s to 100 more episodes!In This Episode We CoverNew mortgage updates that could hurt high credit score borrowers California’s “mansion tax” and how it could affect far more than the “ultra-rich”Factional real estate investing and whether owning a “share” of a rental will ever beat buying properties Colorado’s latest landlords law proposal that could change the way you do leasing Homeownership for all and how unaffordability is putting pressure on lawmakers The On the Market panel’s favorite episodes of all time! And So Much More!Links from the ShowFind an Investor-Friendly Real Estate AgentLender FinderBiggerPockets ForumsBiggerPockets AgentBiggerPockets BootcampsJoin BiggerPockets for FREEOn The MarketJoin the Future of Real Estate Investing with FundriseConnect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” ForumsSubscribe to The “On The Market” YouTube ChannelDave’s BiggerPockets ProfileDave’s InstagramHenry's BiggerPockets ProfileHenry's InstagramJamil's BiggerPockets ProfileJamil's InstagramKathy's BiggerPockets ProfileKathy's InstagramJames' BiggerPockets ProfileJames' InstagramHomebuyers Are Getting Crushed: Are Landlords the Cause?Why NFL Players Are Buying Real Estate During the RecessionSVB’s Risky Bailout and The Bank Run “Domino Effect”2 Real Deals in 2023 That Could Come with Big Red FlagsCheck the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-100Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Don’t know how to run comps on a house? This single skill could be costing you, or making you, hundreds of thousands on every deal you do. No matter what level of real estate investor you are—rookie, intermediate, veteran—the ability to comp correctly will put you above the rest as you walk away from deals far richer than other investors. And during a housing market correction like we’re in today, this skill isn’t just something that’ll make you more money—it’s what will stop you from going broke.Comping, formally known as pulling comparables, is putting a potential property up against other properties in the area, finding a comparable price, and seeing how much can be made on a deal. Most real estate investors have pulled comps a few dozen times, but investors like James Dainard and Jamil Damji calculate THOUSANDS of comps monthly. They’re looking for the profitable property needle in the housing market haystack, and as two self-made multimillionaires, their experience shows that they know what they’re talking about.In this episode, James and Jamil will show you EXACTLY how expert investors comp properties, what you need to look out for when calculating your own, and the “appraisal rules” that were taken DIRECTLY from the source on valuing properties. The tips in this episode could make you six figures more on your next deal. DON’T miss this.In This Episode We CoverHow to determine the value of ANY property in ANY locationComping explained and why you MUST have this skill to invest in real estate successfullyThe “appraisal rules” Jamil uses to get perfect comps on any deal he doesCities vs. suburbs and the BIG mistake investors can make when comping these two areasWhere to find property information and the ONE source you should always start withComping during a housing market corrections and what to do when prices start to slideThe ONE tweak James made that helped his recent house flip make $100K+ moreAnd So Much More!Links from the ShowFind an Investor-Friendly Real Estate AgentBiggerPockets ForumsBiggerPockets AgentBiggerPockets BootcampsJoin BiggerPockets for FREEOn The MarketJoin the Future of Real Estate Investing with FundriseConnect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” ForumsSubscribe to The “On The Market” YouTube ChannelDave’s BiggerPockets ProfileDave’s InstagramJames' BiggerPockets ProfileJames's InstagramJamil's BiggerPockets ProfileJamil's InstagramGrab Jamil’s Appraisal RulesHow to Determine a Property’s Value Using Real Estate CompsWhat is a “Comp?” Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-99Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The housing market shoots up different signals every so often. For most investors, though, these fly under the radar. But for data-driven housing market experts like Mike Simonsen, these signals are hard not to notice. If you want to know where prices will go next, when inventory could spike, and whether or not demand will start to fall (or rise), you MUST know what these signals are and how to find them. Today, we’ll let you in on the not-so-secret way to predict housing market moves so you can invest better than the rest.Altos Research’s Mike Simonsen didn’t start as a housing market enthusiast. He was in Silicon Valley, working with data, just trying to buy his first overpriced house. But, through getting his foot in the door of real estate, he uncovered that no one had the data he needed to make better investments. So, he started Altos Research to finally give real estate investors, realtors, and everyday homebuyers the tools to make their best buying decisions.Over the past seventeen years, Mike has been analyzing, segmenting, and qualifying housing market data for some of the most prominent investors in America. And now, he’s here today to share his time-tested secrets with you. No matter your skill level, you’ll be able to pinpoint the housing market signals Mike showcases so you uncover where the market is moving before the masses. Whether you’re an investor, homebuyer, realtor, or renter, this data will help you build wealth better than ever.In This Episode We CoverThe housing market “signals” that can predict home prices, demand, and moreWhere to find FREE housing market data that’ll help you make the BEST investment decisions“Segmenting” your market and why you’re probably looking at homes all wrongThe biggest housing market surprise of 2023 and why the unexpected happenedWhat could cause homebuyer demand to DROP (and whether it’s possible this year)Housing inventory and why SO many homebuyers are hanging on to their housesHow Mike single-handedly saved the US economy from implodingAnd So Much More!Links from the ShowFind an Investor-Friendly Real Estate AgentBiggerPockets ForumsBiggerPockets AgentBiggerPockets BootcampsJoin BiggerPockets for FREEOn The MarketJoin the Future of Real Estate Investing with FundriseConnect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” ForumsSubscribe to The “On The Market” YouTube ChannelDave’s BiggerPockets ProfileDave’s InstagramUnlock FREE Housing Market Data from DaveRealtorRedfinZillowConnect with Mike:Altos ResearchAltos YouTube ChannelMike's LinkedInMike's TwitterCheck the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-98Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The US dollar is in danger. For decades, trading in USD (US dollars) has been the standard for almost every country on the planet. Thanks to America’s consistent economy, stable government, and growing global market share, the USD has become the most sound currency on earth. But things are starting to change. USD dominance is being threatened by BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), looking to ditch the dollar for a currency they control.But why are most countries trading in USD? When was USD chosen to be the world’s reserve currency? And what does “reserve currency” even mean? Dave Meyer breaks it down in this episode of On the Market, as he details the history of USD dominance, the post-World War rise of a reserve currency, and why the “petrodollar” may be losing steam as other economies grow larger.Dave will also go in-depth on the economic effects of leaving a USD standard, when the USD could be replaced, which currencies are competing, and why dollar dominance (probably) won’t be over anytime soon. American or not, decoupling from a USD standard could have huge effects on your investments, wealth, and spending power.In This Episode We CoverWhat a “reserve currency” really is and how the USD was chosen to be one BRICS' fight for economic dominance and which currency will come out on topHow the Ukraine-Russia conflict exacerbated the need for multiple reserve currencies Going off the gold standard and how a diluted US currency may have made things worse The “petrodollar” and why countries like Saudi Arabia are leaving the USD behind The often-untouched benefits of a non-USD-dominated world And So Much More!Links from the ShowFind an Investor-Friendly Real Estate AgentBiggerPockets ForumsBiggerPockets AgentBiggerPockets BootcampsJoin BiggerPockets for FREEOn The MarketJoin the Future of Real Estate Investing with FundriseConnect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” ForumsSubscribe to The “On The Market” YouTube ChannelDave’s BiggerPockets ProfileDave’s InstagramHow Does Money Work? The Complete Guide to Monetary SystemsPlanet Money Episode 553: The Dollar At The Center Of The WorldCheck the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-97Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices