Actionable Intelligence Alert

Japan is facing a tremendous energy crisis due to the fact it imports almost 100% of its domestic energy.   The government has been promoting conservation but that is not enough. The PM announced that it is time to turn Japan's idled nuclear fleet back on to avoid an energy crisis.

We are having inflation in fuel and food mostly because we do not have enough of these materials.  Yes, the monetary malfeasance of central banks has contributed to the price increases.   Nevertheless, we simply do not have enough oil and refined products to meet demand. The same is going to happen to food.

I don't know anyone that does not have a summer trip planned. Oil supply is already struggling to keep up with demand and we are looking at a big hike in jet fuel demand.    Diesel, the workhorse of the economy, is already struggling to keep up with demand.   But what price level finally cracks the economy?

The EU and US are on a sanctions escalator and prices continue to rise.    Meanwhile, the ECB and BOJ continue to print money. The world is facing a stagflationary mess.   Prepare for further food and energy price increases.

As long as oil prices stay reasonably high.   However, we have many headwinds to higher oil prices; tightening liquidity, rising rates, fiscal stimulus fading, and weakening economy around the world.    Nevertheless, this week's quarterly earnings reports from Halliburton and Schlumberger were very positive with the forward guidance positive also.

The knock-on effects of the Russian sanctions are exacerbating the deglobalization that was already happening.   Longer supply chains and less efficiency are going to lead to higher prices including possibly higher tanker rates.

Lots of positive news in the uranium and nuclear sector.    It appears that the uranium price is now entering a new upleg in prices. This is after the consolidation we have experienced in uranium share prices over the last six months or so.

Not sure the EU politicians contemplated that when they put sanctions on Russia because of its invasion of Ukraine they would experience any repercussions.    Russia is now demanding payment for the gas, and I suspect other commodities in the future, in rubles. Not sure the EU saw this one coming.    Panic is setting in among politicians and business leaders as no rubles equals no gas.

The EU and US have instituted the harshest sanction regime on Russia that has been seen on a country.   It seems the decision was made in haste without much consideration of the knock-on effects they would cause for their own economies and the world at large.

The title may be a little click baitey but consider the facts.    Plague=Covid, War=Ukraine, Famine=Result of bad decisions on sanctions   We are seeing more and more countries ban exports of food as it becomes increasingly likely we are going to be looking at shortages of many staples like wheat, soybeans, and corn.