Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

It’s time for our annual review!It has become tradition that at the beginning of each year, World in 30 Minutes host Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro, Research Director at ECFR, predict ten bright and bold policy projections for the year to come. Predictions for 2020 took a real beating from the coronavirus pandemic, but thanks to some very generous rounding, the end of year score came to 6 points out of 10. What are your foreign policy predictions for 2021? Let us know by tweeting at us @ecfr or comment here below or on Facebook.This podcast was recorded on 13 January 2021.Further reading: The long year: Top foreign policy trends for 2021: https://buff.ly/3636nLQTop ten foreign policy trends in 2020: https://buff.ly/2XE1G6qCheck out all predictions since 2016: https://buff.ly/3oJbwA8Bookshelf:- “The Mermaid from Jeju” by Sumi Hahn- “Cyber War & Cyber Peace in the Middle East" edited by Michael Sexton and Eliza Campbell Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In the early days of covid-19, it became clear that none of the great powers were looking to the multilateral system to provide an answer. As the death count rose, every country acted as if it was on its own, closing borders, stockpiling medical equipment, and introducing export controls. The blame game conducted by Beijing and Washington over the WHO showed how geopolitics is increasingly undermining multilateralism. While it seems increasingly evident that the global challenges of today require global solutions, how can we explain the current crisis of the liberal international order? In this week’s podcast, Mark Leonard is joined by John Ikenberry, Albert G. Milbank Professor of International Affairs at Princeton University, to discuss the roles of the US and the EU in supporting liberal internationalism to address the problems of modernity and build a world safe for democracy.This podcast was recorded on 9 December 2020.Further reading:“The Next Liberal Order” by John Ikenberry: https://buff.ly/3j50qTC “Why Liberal Internationalism Is Still Indispensable—and Fixable” by Michael Hirsh: https://buff.ly/3gkxgilBookshelf:• “A World Safe for Democracy: Liberal Internationalism and the Crises of Global Order” by John Ikenberry• The “FDR at War” series by Nigel Hamilton• “Brideshead revisited” by Evelyn Waugh Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As Europe is in the middle of the second wave of the covid-19 pandemic, everyone hopes that a vaccine will put an end to it and thereby stop raising the death tolls and repeating lockdowns. In this week’s episode, Anthony Dworkin takes over the podcast to talk to Gunilla Carlsson, ECFR Council member and Vice-Chair of the Global Fund Strategy Committee, and Ilona Kickbusch, founding director and chair of the Global Health Centre at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva about the global distribution of covid-19 vaccines and the geopolitics surrounding this. What are upcoming challenges for the COVAX initiative? How should we expect European countries to balance their commitment to protect their own populations vs global responsibilities?This podcast was recorded on 17 December 2020.Bookshelf:• "Risk society" by Ulrich Beck • Swedish poetry• "Why the Germans do it better" by John Kampfner Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The corona outbreak has put the world’s leaders and the way they communicate to their people, to the test. Each country wants to project a positive self-image, portraying itself as a strong and capable crisis manager. In these past months, there have been attempts to discredit other countries, their political systems, and their responses to the pandemic. Also, scientific facts have been under scrutiny and challenged by “alternative facts” and disinformation. This week’s host, Susi Dennison, director of ECFR’s European Power programme is joined by ECFR Council Members Christine Ockrent and Julia De Clerck-Sachsse to talk about what HR/VP Josep Borrell called a “global battle of narratives and a struggle for geopolitical influence.”This podcast was recorded on 10 December 2020.Further reading:“La guerre des récits. Xi, Trump, Poutine: la pandémie et le choc des empires” by Christine Ockrent“From Brussels with love: How the European Union can win the battle of narratives” by Julia De Clerck-Sachsse: https://buff.ly/3kj6Uxy“Together in trauma: Europeans and the world after covid-19” by Susi Dennison & Pawel Zerka: https://buff.ly/37qdxelBookshelf:•The magic mountain by Thomas Mann•Love in the Blitz by Eileen Alexander •A country for dying by Abdellah Taïa•Ghana must go by Taiye Selasi•The world of yesterday by Stefan Zweig•Impossible by Erri De Luca Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

ust over a month ago, Abiy Ahmed, Prime Minister of Ethiopia and 2019 Nobel Peace Prize winner, ordered a military offensive against regional forces in Tigray. Since then, the situation has been spiralling out of control, with increasing international concern over access to the Tigray region and reports of attacks against UN personnel trying to gain access. ECFR’s Susi Dennison takes over in this week’s episode to discuss the regional implications of the conflict and the prospects for transatlantic cooperation around the issue. She is joined by Theo Murphy, Director of ECFR’s Africa programme, Payton Knopf, Senior Advisor to the Africa programme of the US Institute for Peace, and Alexander Rondos, ECFR Council Member and EU Special Representative to the Horn of Africa.This podcast was recorded on 9 December 2020. Further reading:- “Final Report and Recommendations of the Senior Study Group on Peace and Security in the Red Sea Arena”, U.S. Institute of Peace: https://buff.ly/2JS25PqBookshelf: - “Afropean: Notes from Black Europe” by Johny Pitts - “America in the World: A History of U.S. Diplomacy and Foreign Policy” by Robert Zoellick - “The Shadow King” by Maaza Mengiste - “Swimmer Among the Stars” by Kanishk Tharoor Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The election of Joe Biden presents an opening to strengthen transatlantic diplomacy on Iran. Biden has already outlined his intention to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran, primarily by ensuring the US re-joining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), from which the US unilaterally withdrew under outgoing President Trump. However, to what extent can and will Iran policy be a priority of the incoming administration? What can Europeans do to bolster transatlantic diplomacy on Iran? This week Mark Leonard is joined by Nasser Hadian, professor of political science at the University of Tehran, Ilan Goldenberg, director of the Middle East Security Program at the Center for a New American Security and ECFR’s Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy head of our Middle East and North Africa programme to discuss these issues. This podcast was recorded on 2 December 2020.Further Reading:“A call for Europe to bolster transatlantic diplomacy on Iran”, a joint statement by ECFR Council Members: https://buff.ly/3qfKrFCOn Iran, the Next Administration Must Break With the Past by Elisa Catalano Ewers, Ilan Goldenberg, and Kaleigh Thomasin Foreign Affairs Bookshelf:• “Losing the Long Game: The False Promise of Regime Change in the Middle East”, by Philip H. Gordon• “A Promised Land” by Barack Obama Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The geopolitical grouping known as the “frugal four” — Austria, Denmark, Sweden and the Netherlands — has emerged as a key power centre in this year’s negotiations over the EU’s next budget and the covid-19 recovery fund. However, flying the “frugal” banner now seems like it could become a trap — both for the countries themselves and for the rest of the EU. In this week’s episode, host Mark Leonard is joined by Catharina Sørensen, deputy director of the Danish “Think Tank Europa”, Caroline de Gruyter, ECFR Council Member and Europe correspondent and columnist for the Dutch newspaper NRC Handelsblad, Daniel Sachs, ECFR Council member and CEO of the board of Sweden-based Proventus AB, and ECFR policy fellow Pawel Zerka. Does “frugality” actually reflect the public sentiment in those countries? How do the citizens really feel about the recovery fund? And how could the leaders of the frugal states reposition their countries as transformative engines for the EU?Further reading: The transformative five: A new role for the frugal states after the EU recovery deal, by Pawel Zerka and Susi Dennisonhttps://ecfr.eu/publication/the-transformative-five-a-new-role-for-the-frugal-states-after-the-eu-recovery-deal/This podcast was recorded on 25 November 2020.Bookshelf:- The Mirror & the Light (Thomas Cromwell #3), by Hilary Mantel- Team of Rivals: The Political Genius of Abraham Lincoln, by Doris Kearns Goodwin- Leaving, by Vaclav Havel- The Magic Mountain, by Thomas Mann- The Joe Biden Experience, The Ezra Klein Showpicture (c) picture alliance / AA | Abdullah Asiran Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Almost a year ago, when EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made her first business trip outside the EU, she chose the African Union headquarters in Addis Ababa as her destination and took quite a stand . Also this year was supposed to be a “decisive year” in African-European relations: The German Minister for Economic Cooperation and Development talked at the beginning of 2020 about a “treaty of the century” which should have been sealed at the AU-EU Summit. However, with the pandemic ongoing, the Summit was postponed, and priorities shifted. Where do we stand now in building a “strategic partnership” between the European and African continent? And can we actually consider it a “strategic” one? What impact has the competition between the US and China on these relations?In this week’s episode, host Mark Leonard is joined by Faten Aggad, Senior Advisor to the AU High Representative on AU-EU negotiations, Mark Malloch Brown, former deputy secretary‐general of the UN under Kofi Annan and minister of state in the UK foreign office, and ECFR Africa’s director Theodore Murphy to discuss challenges and possible opportunities of the AU-EU relationship.This podcast was recorded on 9 November 2020.Further reading:“Trump, Biden, and Europe’s place in the Africa great power competition” by Theodore Murphy https://ecfr.eu/article/trump-biden-and-how-europes-losing-the-great-power-competition-in-africa/Bookshelf: •JFK: Volume One, by Fredrik Logevall•Shaping the Future of Power, by Lina Benabdallah•The Chronicles of Narnia, by C.S Lewis•A World Safe for Democracy, John IkenberryPodcast:•Global Translations, POLITICO Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Joe Biden has won the US elections and in January 2021 will become the 46th president of the United States of America. While that is not yet official, it is clear. But what is also clear is that we cannot go back to the pre-Trump world. When Biden returns to the White House, he will look for a Europe that brings solutions rather than problems. Europeans should show they can be an equal partner and offer him a new transatlantic bargain. This week, host Mark Leonard is joined by our ECFR program directors: Susi Dennison, Janka Oertel, Julien Barnes-Dacey, Nicu Popescu, and Theodore Murphy to analyse how a “European offer” could look, with topics ranging from climate to trade, to multilateralism. Further reading: - ECFR topic page: https://ecfr.eu/topic/us-election-2020/ - “The best defence: Why the EU should forge security compacts with its eastern neighbours” by Gustav Gressel & Nicu Popescu: https://buff.ly/3jTzMMv This podcast was recorded on 12 November 2020.Bookshelf:• "Africa first" by Jakkie Cilliers • "Forget unity – now elections deliver revenge as much as representation" by William Davies in The Guardian• "This is not normal" by William Davies • "My Brother’s Road, an American's Fateful Journey to Armenia" by Markar Melkonian • "The Nine Lives of Pakistan" by Declan Walsh in The Guardian• "Sharp: The Women Who Made an Art of Having an Opinion" by Michelle Dean • "Blood and Oil: Mohammed bin Salman's Ruthless Quest for Global Power" by Bradley Hope, Justin Scheck Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With Trump´s inauguration in 2017 and his claims about NATO and the transatlantic relationship, Europe began to realize that it needed to take better care of its own security. With the official election result looming, host Mark Leonard talks to ECFR’s heads of offices from Berlin, Paris, Madrid, and Warsaw – Jana Puglierin, Tara Varma, Jose Ignacio Torreblanca and Piotr Buras – as well as Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR´s research director and in-house US expert: How much impact does the future US president have on the very concept of European sovereignty? Will the idea and initiatives to build more strategic autonomy in Europe be put back to bed with Joe Biden in the White House? Or does Europe have to forge its own agenda?Further reading:• Topic page US elections and their impact on Europe and the world: https://buff.ly/3jQeFdV • “Independence play: Europe’s pursuit of strategic autonomy” by Ulrike Franke & Tara Varma: https://buff.ly/3jXaCwJ • "An American chasm" The Rachman Review with Jeremy Shapiro: https://buff.ly/2JG7QiUThis podcast was recorded on 5 November 2020.Bookshelf:• “These truths: a history of the United States” by Jill Lepore h• “We the People: a history of the United States” by Bidna, David et.al • “Yoga” by Emmanuel Carrère • “The tribalization of Europe: a defence of our liberal values” by Marlene Wind • Transcript Of John McCain's concession speech • TV show “Emily in Paris” • TV show “Patria” Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.