Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

Our beloved predictions episode is back! As they do every year, Mark Leonard and ECFR research director Jeremy Shapiro forecast the foreign policy trends and events for the year ahead.If other analysts saw it coming, Mark and Jeremy certainly didn’t. Their 2022 prediction of “no large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine” really threw last year’s scoring off leaving them with only 6/10 points. Will they do better this time? And what are your foreign policy predictions for 2023? Send us an email or tweet them to us using #Worldin30Minutes! This podcast was recorded on 4 January 2023.Further reading:2023: The year we learn to stop worrying by Mark Leonard & Jeremy ShapiroBookshelf:•Vladimir by Julia May Jonas•Anéantir by Michel Houellebecq•Exhalation by Ted Chiang Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

After the EU finally came to an agreement with Hungary over financial aid for Ukraine, all eyes are now on Poland and its own protracted conflict with Brussels over its rule-of-law inadequacies. Meanwhile, a series of public spats between Warsaw and Berlin has drawn attention to the rifts within the EU and a new East-West divide. In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard is joined by Piotr Buras and Jana Puglierin, heads of ECFR’s Warsaw and Berlin offices respectively and senior policy fellows. Together they talk about Poland’s standing within the EU and Polish-German relations. What is the state of the rule of law in Poland? How has the war in Ukraine affected Polish politics and Poland’s relationship to its neighbours and the EU? And finally, why does Poland have it out for Germany? This podcast was recorded on 16 December 2022. Further reading - “The final countdown: The EU, Poland, and the rule of law” by Piotr Buras: https://buff.ly/3WjF7k6 Bookshelf - “Spat Over Patriot Missiles Reveals Deepening Rifts in Europe Over Ukraine” by Steven Erlanger in the New York Times - “Barcelona” by Robert Hughes - “Youth: Scenes from Provincial Life II” by J. M. Coetzee Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

New mini-series! Subscribe here: https://soundcloud.com/ecfrclips China is becoming ever more important to global affairs. But the covid-19 pandemic, as well as political and geopolitical challenges, mean that Europeans’ ability to engage with Chinese thinkers and understand their views and ideas about the world has diminished. In this mini-series, Mark Leonard and Janka Oertel will try to change that by engaging in conversations with some of the best Chinese academics, researchers, writers, and journalists on diverse topics in Chinese internal debates that matter most to Europeans.In the first episode, the hosts are joined by Wang Jisi, the founding president of the Institute of International and Strategic Studies at Peking University and one of the world’s most prominent scholars on US-China relations. Together, we will learn about China’s understanding of global order and the recent developments in the geopolitical landscape with a focus on US-China. What can we take away from China’s stance at the G20 summit? What is to come for US-China relations going forward? And finally, what do the outcomes of the 20th Party Congress mean for Europe and the world?This podcast was recorded on 23 November 2022, one day before the Urumqi apartment fire, which was followed by nationwide protests against the zero-covid policy in China. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The European Council is considering freezing €7.5 billion in funds allocated to Hungary due to concerns about rule of law violations. Meanwhile, prime minister Viktor Orban has embarked on a controversial “national consultation” concerning EU sanctions against Russia, increasingly isolating Hungary among member states. In this week’s podcast, Mark Leonard is joined by Zsuzsanna Szelenyi, a Hungarian politician and foreign policy specialist, to discuss the situation in the country. What would the freezing of EU-funds mean for Hungary-EU relations and Hungary’s role in the union? What new alliances is Orban trying to foster among other illiberal governments in Europe? And finally, how could Hungary’s confrontational approach to Brussels shape European foreign policy when it comes to Russia, and even China?This podcast was recorded on 7 December 2022.Bookshelf:• “Tainted Democracy: Victor Orbán and the Subversion of Hungary” by Zsuzsanna Szelényi• “Mind the gaps: The pending suspension of Hungary’s EU funds” by Zsuzsanna Végh•“How to Stand Up to a Dictator” by Maria Ressa Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

From search engines to social media, from navigation systems to medical gear, our everyday lives are already intertwined with artificial intelligence. But as AI becomes ever more powerful, questions around security risks, ethical use and disinformation arise. In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard is joined by Stuart Russell, professor of electrical engineering and computer sciences and holder of the Smith-Zadeh Chair in Engineering at the University of California at Berkeley. They discuss artificial intelligence’s capabilities to solve global problems and humans’ ability to control its dark side. What benefits can AI bring to health and education? How do algorithms foster extremism and the polarisation of public debates? And finally, could lethal autonomous weapons be ethically used? This podcast was recorded on 3 November 2022. Bookshelf: -“Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies” by Nick Bostrom - “Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence” by Max Tegmark - “The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity” by Toby Ord - “The Culture series” by Iain M. Banks Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The semiconductor industry has become the cornerstone of the structure of the global economy and the balance of geopolitical power. And Europe has now joined the United States and China in a ‘chip war’ for global semiconductor domination.In this week’s episode, Janka Oertel, head of ECFR´s Asia programme and senior policy fellow, is joined by Chris Miller, assistant professor of international history at Tufts University, and Andrew Small, senior transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund and ECFR alumnus. They discuss how chips decide power in today’s geopolitical competition. What role does Taiwan’s leadership in semiconductor production play in tensions with China? And to what extent will Europe align and integrate with the United States’ China policy in the upcoming years?This podcast was recorded on 16 November 2022.Bookshelf:•“Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology” by Chris Miller• “The Rupture: China and the Global Race for the Future” by Andrew Small - One of the FT Best Books on Politics 2022• “Prestige, Manipulation, and Coercion: Elite Power Struggles in the Soviet Union and China after Stalin and Mao” by Joseph Torigian• “The Cashless Revolution: China's Reinvention of Money and the End of America's Domination of Finance and Technology” by Martin Chorzempa Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Many Europeans see the war in Ukraine as an attack on the ‘rules-based order’. But to many people in other parts of the world, there is no consensus on a set of rules to govern global affairs – and no sense of order. In this mini-series, Mark Leonard will go on an intellectual tour of the world, talking to key thinkers about how order is being defined by different powers. He explores how the clash between these different notions plays into the big shocks facing the world – from climate change and future pandemics to geopolitical struggles and technological disasters – and what this means for national and global politics.-----In this sixth instalment, Leonard is joined by Comfort Ero – president and CEO of the International Crisis Group – to learn more about the Nigerian perspective on global order. How can oil and gas output help Nigeria position itself advantageously in the context of the war in Ukraine? What role do African regionalism and Pax Africana play in building the continent’s capacity to respond to crises? And finally, to what extent do the recent crisis in Libya and the hypermilitarisation of the Sahel shape understandings about ‘order’ in Nigeria today?Further reading: • “Principles for global order: How Europeans and the global south can shape the international order together” by Theodore MurphyBookshelf:• “Africa and the International System: The Politics of State Survival” by Christopher Clapham• Africa Confidential newsletter• “Why is the US role in Africa Shrinking?” by Zainab Usman• “Imagine Nigeria: Exploring the Future of Nigeria” by the Government of Nigeria and UNDP Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

9 November is a day of low and high points in history – moments of both loss and of joy. Some important examples include the Pogromnacht in 1938 or the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, which marked the end of the cold war. But 9 November 2007 was also the day that brought ECFR’s 50 founding members together, united by a sense that the EU member states could combine their values and resources to become a prototype for a global open society.In this special episode, ECFR council member Mabel van Oranje hosts director Mark Leonard, as well as ECFR founding members Timothy Garton Ash, professor of European studies at the University of Oxford, and Ivan Krastev, chair of the board at the Centre for Liberal Strategies in Sofia. They explore how the momentous historical events of 9 November can help Europeans make sense of the current moment of disorder. Is a reversal happening of the world order brought about by 9 November 1989? What has ECFR’s role been in helping Europe find a strong, united voice and what will it be in the critical times ahead? And finally, can we expect a rebalancing of power in Europe after the war in Ukraine?This podcast was recorded on 9 November 2022. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Many Europeans see the war in Ukraine as an attack on the ‘rules-based order’. But to many people in other parts of the world, there is no consensus on a set of rules to govern global affairs – and no sense of order. In this mini-series, Mark Leonard will go on an intellectual tour of the world, talking to key thinkers about how order is being defined by different powers. He explores how the clash between these different notions plays into the big shocks facing the world – from climate change and future pandemics to geopolitical struggles and technological disasters – and what this means for national and global politics.---In this fifth episode, Leonard is joined by Vali Nasr – Majid Khadduri professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies at the Johns Hopkins -SAIS, and a non-resident senior fellow at Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center – to learn more about the Iranian perspective on global order. What role does anti-Americanism play in advancing Iran’s interest in the Middle East? How are notions of power, freedom, and justice between Iranian leaders and the population different? And finally, to what extent do the Iran-Iraq War and Western sanctions shape understandings about “order” today in Iran?Bookshelf:•“The Dispensable Nation: American Foreign Policy in Retreat” by Vali Nasr• “Forces of Fortune: The Rise of a New Muslim Middle Class and How it Will Change Our World” by Vali Nasr• “The Shia Revival: How Conflicts within Islam will Shape the Future” by Vali Nasr• “Persians: The Age of the Great Kings” by Lloyd Llewellyn-Jones Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Many Europeans see the war in Ukraine as an attack on the ‘rules-based order’. But to many people in other parts of the world, there is no consensus on a set of rules to govern global affairs – and no sense of order. In this mini-series, Mark Leonard will go on an intellectual tour of the world, talking to key thinkers about how order is being defined by different powers. He explores how the clash between these different notions plays into the big shocks facing the world – from climate change and future pandemics to geopolitical struggles and technological disasters – and what this means for national and global politics.---In this fourth instalment, Leonard is joined by Fyodor Lukyanov – chair of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy and editor-in-chief of the Russia in Global Affairs journal – to learn more about the Russian perspective on global order. Why is the Kremlin so keen on regional integration? How can power guarantee freedom and achieve justice in a rules-based order? And finally, what role do the Soviet Union and notions of imperial greatness play in Vladimir Putin’s ideal of Russia?Bookshelf:• Russia in Global Affairs journal, Issue 3 2022 July/September and Issue 4 2022 October/November• “Europe, Russia and the Liberal World Order: International Relations after the Cold War” by Timofei Bordachev• Complete works of Nikolai Gogol Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.