Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

Last week, the Chinese leader Xi Jinping completed a three-day visit to Moscow, his first since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Before the war, Xi and Vladimir Putin had famously announced a “friendship without limits”. But it is unclear whether that relationship is purely transactional, a marriage of convenience, or based on more fundamental, ideological factors. In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard is joined by the director of ECFR's Asia programme, Janka Oertel, and ECFR policy fellow, Alicja Bachulska, to discuss China-Russia relations. How best to explain the “friendship without limits”? What are the key takeaways from Xi's Russia trip? And how has Xi's embrace of Putin been perceived in central and eastern Europe? This podcast was recorded on 28 March 2023. Bookshelf: Our Share of Night: a novel by Mariana Enriquez Economists at War: how a handful of Economists helped win and lose the World Wars by Allan Bollard Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Last week, China helped broker an agreement between long-feuding Saudi Arabia and Iran to begin the process of normalising their relations. Both the deal and China’s role surprised many observers – especially in the West. So, how significant is the agreement, and what consequences will it have for the Middle East? To address this and other questions, Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme; Cinzia Bianco, ECFR visiting fellow and Gulf expert; and Andrew Small, China expert and senior transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund. Does this deal mean Beijing could play a constructive role in ending the war in Ukraine? Or should the United States be alarmed that China is encroaching on its traditional sphere of influence? This podcast was recorded on 22 March 2023. Bookshelf: Aftermath: Life in the Fallout of the Third Reich, 1945-1955 by Harald Jähner Berlin: The Story of a City by Barney White-Spunner Economists at War: How a Handful of Economists Helped Win and Lose the World Wars by Allan Bollard Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Christoph Heusgen, longstanding foreign policy chief during the Merkel years and now chair of the Munich Security Conference. They discuss Western and non-Western reactions to the war in Ukraine – and, in particular, the role of Germany. Should Berlin have taken a harder line against Russia after 2014? How can Scholz realise his vision for the Zeitenwende? And what is stopping Germany from engaging more in developing countries? This podcast was recorded on 13 March 2023. Bookshelf: The Age of Unpeace: How Connectivity Causes Conflict by Mark Leonard Führung und Verantwortung: Angela Merkels Außenpolitik und Deutschlands künftige Rolle in der Welt by Christoph Heusgen Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A year into the war in Ukraine, economic sanctions remain the West’s strongest instrument against Russia. But the Russian economy has proven surprisingly resilient: Russia still sells oil to Turkey and China, and – according to a recent investigation by The Economist and SourceMaterial – the Kremlin’s sanctions-dodging is becoming increasingly advanced. This week, Mark Leonard is joined by James O’Brien, head of the office of sanctions coordination at the US State Department, to discuss the efficacy of economic sanctions. What ripple effects have sanctions had for Western and third countries? Is the United States currently mulling sanctions against China? And what alternatives are there, if sanctions no longer work as intended?This podcast was recorded on 6 March 2023.Bookshelf-Backfire by Agathe Demarais-Russia’s sanctions-dodging is getting ever more sophisticated by The Economist and SourceMaterial -Talking to Terrorists by Jonathan Powell-We Don’t Know Ourselves by Fintan O’Toole-The Baseball 100 by Joe PosnanskiPicture (c) picture alliance / Consolidated News Photos | Rod Lamkey - CNP Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Some analysts argue that capitalism would work better without democracy, while others believe that democracy would be better off without capitalism – so what’s the solution? In his new book “The crisis of democratic capitalism”, Martin Wolf, chief economics commentator at the Financial Times, sets out how they actually need one another if either is to thrive. In this week’s episode, host Mark Leonard welcomes Wolf to discuss what democratic capitalism is all about and how it is threatened by two distinct authoritarian versions of capitalism. What does all this mean for the development of democracy and capitalism in developing and emerging economies? And what are the chances that democratic capitalism will remain the model to which countries around the world aspire?This podcast was recorded on 10 February 2023. Bookshelf - The crisis of democratic capitalism by Martin Wolf - Slouching towards utopia by J. Bradford DeLong Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A major new public opinion poll from ECFR indicates that, a year into Russia's war on Ukraine, the Western alliance is consolidating – but that there are divisions between the West and other global powers. These divergences range from their views of the conflict to their interpretations of democracy and their ambitions on the world stage. In this week's episode, the authors of the research – Mark Leonard, Timothy Garton Ash, and Ivan Krastev – discuss its main findings and the future of the world order. Does Europe have a strong role to play in a multipolar world, or will it forever live in the United States’ shadow? How can the West use the desire in emerging powers to act on their own terms to its advantage? And what principles should drive Europe’s engagement with those countries?This podcast was recorded on 18 February 2023.Further reading- United West, divided from the rest: Global public opinion one year into Russia’s war on Ukraine by Timothy Garton Ash, Ivan Krastev & Mark Leonard https://ecfr.eu/publication/united-west-divided-from-the-rest-global-public-opinion-one-year-into-russias-war-on-ukraine/ Bookshelf- Homelands: A Personal History of Europe by Timothy Garton Ash - The Frontline by Serhii Plokhy- The Shape of the Ruins by Juan Gabriel Vásquez Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine upended many Western leaders’ previous assumptions about security policy, warfare, and the international order. Mark Leonard and his ECFR colleagues Camille Grand, Jana Puglierin, and Ulrike Franke got together at the Munich Security Conference (MSC) last weekend to discuss the dramatic changes – such as Germany's Zeitenwende – that have taken place as a result of these revisions. They analyse MSC speeches from Volodymir Zelensky, Olaf Scholz, and Emmanuel Macron, as well as the announcement of a plan for peace talks by China's top diplomat Wang Yi. What is on the transatlantic to-do list? And how can the West forge more and better alliances with countries in the global south? This podcast was recorded on 17 February 2023.Further reading: - The Munich Security Report 2023 Bookshelf: - Au café de la ville perdue [FR] by Anaïs Llobet - Les Loups [FR] by Benoît Vitkine Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Michael Thumann, foreign affairs correspondent for the German weekly newspaper Die ZEIT, longtime expert on Russia, and one of the only German correspondents still reporting from Moscow. Following the publication of Thumann’s new book, “Revanche. Wie Putin das bedrohlichste Regime der Welt geschaffen hat” (“Revenge: How Putin created the most threatening regime in the world”, currently only available in German), he and Leonard discuss the roots of the Russian regime’s imperialistic behaviour. What is the relevance of Vladimir Putin’s interpretation of Russian history? Could Russia become a ‘normal country’ in the future? And how have Germans’ views of Russia changed since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine?This podcast was recorded on 1 February 2023.Further reading:- Revanche by Michael Thumann [available only in GER]: https://buff.ly/3lppnPn - The old is dying and the new cannot be born: A power audit of EU-Russia relations by Kadri Liik: https://t.co/W42ylXEfDp Bookshelf:- Geschichten aus der Heimat by Dmitry Glukhovsky [available only in GER]- Day of the Oprichnik by Vladimir Sorokin- The Frontline Essays on Ukraine’s Past and Present by Serhii Plokhy Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Over the last decades, sanctions have become the West’s diplomatic tool par excellence. Faced with wars, humanitarian crises, and human rights violations, the West’s response has often been to impose sanctions to avoid resorting to military force. This week, Mark Leonard invited Agathe Demarais, global forecasting director of the Economist Intelligence Unit and author of “Backfire - How Sanctions Reshape the World Against US Interests”, to talk about how sanctions work and how they can be truly effective. Have the sanctions on Russia been successful? Is there a danger of the West becoming over-reliant on them? And will they eventually be replaced by other economic weapons?This podcast was recorded on 24 January 2023.Further reading-ECFR’s work on geo-economics: https://ecfr.eu/category/europeanpower/economic-sovereignty/ - Backfire: How Sanctions Reshape the World Against U.S. Interests by Agathe Demarais- The global race for semiconductor hegemony with Janka Oertel, Chris Miller and Andrew SmallBookshelf- What You Have Heard Is True: A Memoir of Witness and Resistance by Carolyn Forché - Kochland by Christopher Leonard- Say Nothing by Patrick Radden KeefePicture © Agathe Demarais Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On 25 January, after months of deliberation, Germany's chancellor Olaf Scholz announced he would send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine – and permit other countries to do the same. What led to this turnaround? Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR heavyweights on security and defence policy – Camille Grand, Gustav Gressel, Jana Puglierin, and Jeremy Shapiro – to discuss what this decision means for the war in Ukraine, for German diplomacy, and for transatlantic relations. Will the unity on show at last week's Ramstein meeting continue in the long term? And what is the future of military aid for Ukraine? This podcast was recorded on 25 January 2023. Further reading - The Leopard plan: How European tanks can help Ukraine take back its territory by Gustav Gressel, Rafael Loss and Jana Puglierin: https://t.co/2798lmtF1x - Send in the Leopards: Why Western allies should deliver tanks to Ukraine by Margaryta Khvostova & Dmytro Kryvosheiev: https://t.co/BV7Hs0TvYx Bookshelf:- Les Ambitions Inavouées by Thomas Gomart- Putin's People: How the KGB Took Back Russia and Then Took On the West by Catherine Belton - Maybe Esther by Katja Petrowskaja - Peace Talks Between Russia and Ukraine: Mission Impossible by Sabine Fischer - The Bernie Gunther series by Philip Kerr Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.