Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik Presl

Do you want to support the podcast and get bonus content, early access and much more? Become a supporter on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics This is a conversation with Vlad Vexler, a fellow Youtuber and a political philosopher with excellent insight into the Russian state and society. We talked about Navalny, Tucker Carlson's Putin interview, why there is a lack of opposition to Putin's regime and what would it take for someone to successfully challenge him and many other things. It was one of the most interesting conversations I've had on the channel so far and I have a lot to think about now. 

Listen to the full episode on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics This is a conversation with David Rennie, a China-based reporter for the Economist, a head of their Beijing Bureau and a co-author of an excellent podcast on China, the Drum Tower. David has lived and worked in China for decades, he speaks fluent Chinese and talks to both Chinese officials and people on the ground on a regular basis.  And so we talked about whether the Chinese leadership wants to take Taiwan by force and if it's preparing to do that, why the growing disillusionment with the economy is making the government very nervous and why even Chinese leadership has to care about what people think. And about many other things. Thank you to everyone who has decided to support this podcast on Patreon, it means a lot. And now enjoy the conversation.

You can find the bonus part of the interview on ➡️ PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics Support this podcast on Patreon, help me make more episodes and get bonus content, early access and ask questions to the upcoming guests. Check out Anders's YT channel: https://www.youtube.com/@anderspuck This is a conversation with Anders Puck Nielsen, a military analyst at the Royal Danish Defence College, a former Captain in the Royal Danish Navy and a fellow Youtuber. We talked about which of the two sides in the war in Ukraine actually has time on their side, why Russians use meat wave tactics, why do we misunderstand what a NATO-Russia conflict would look like and how can Ukraine win this war. And many other things.  Thank you to all the people who support this podcast on Patreon because you make this possible. And now enjoy this conversation.  0:00 - Intro 01:19 - Ukraine War & Naval Warfare 09:59 - Ukraine War & Air Warfare 09:59 - Ukraine War & Air Warfare 14:39 - Land Warfare & Russian "Meat wave" Tactics 29:41 - How can Ukraine Win the War? 41:11 - Who has time on their side? 44:27 - What if General Zaluzhny gets replaced?

➡️ PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics Support this podcast on Patreon, help me make more episodes and get bonus content, early access and ask questions to the upcoming guests. This is a conversation with General Richard Shirref. General Shirreff was one of the highest ranking British military commanders and a second in command of NATO forces. He has been warning of the Russian threat long before it became mainstream and in 2016, after he left the military he published a book called War with Russia in which Russia attacks Ukraine and afterwards continues to invade the Baltics, catching NATO completely unprepared - a book that was meant as a warning for what might be coming. In this conversation, we talk about why he was one of the few people who saw the threat clearly years before everyone else, why it would be extremely dangerous to underestimate the Russians and how prepared is NATO for a Russian aggression. Richard is extremely candid in his answers and he's not afraid to be critical and say things as they really are and so I think it's an extremely interesting conversation. Thank you to everyone who supports this show on Patreon because you make this possible, and now enjoy the podcast. 00:00 - Intro 01:17 - Predicting Russian Invasion 06:51 - Why we refused to see the Russian threat 11:09 - Russian Invasion in 2022 13:15 - Underestimating the Ukrainians 18:05 - Overestimating the Russians 21:55 - The Russian Threat for NATO 34:06 - How Prepared is NATO? 36:54 - The state of the British Military 40:42 - Do we need to introduce conscription? 44:31 - Is Taiwan a window of opportunity for Russia 46:47 - Can Europe defend itself without the U.S.?

➡️ PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics Listen to the full episode on Patreon, get Patreon-only episodes, early access and ask questions to the upcoming guests by helping me make more episodes and becoming a supporter. This is a conversation with George Barros. George leads the team at the Institute for the Study of War that is responsible for tracking and analyzing the war in Ukraine and making daily updates on what is going on in the battlefield and on the strategic level. They are now the most quoted think-tank in the world and so there is a good chance that you have seen George's work before.  In this conversation, we talk about the shape of the Russian military as it's getting ready for a major offensive against Ukraine, what are the real Russian losses and when will the Russians finally run out of tanks and whether Russia would and could attack NATO. And we also talked about the work of his team at ISW, how they track and analyze the conflict and how open source intelligence is changing the character of war. Enjoy the conversation. 

This is a conversation with Francis Farrel, an Australian-born journalist based in Ukraine, Working as a reporter focusing on the war and often reporting directly from the frontlines for the Kyiv Independent, a major Ukrainian English-language newspaper. We talked about what the situation on the ground in Ukraine looks like, what is the strategy for 2024, how long can Ukraine last without further Western aid or whether journalists should be publishing negative stories about Ukraine in time of war. Make sure that you check out Kyiv Independent, it's a great source of news directly from the source and I also recommend following Francis on Twitter as he shares some really interesting stuff. And now, enjoy the conversation.   If you want to support the podcast, you can do so here: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics  00:00 - Intro 01:45 - Situation on the ground in Ukraine 05:29 - Ukraine's Strategy for 2024 10:51 - Is Ukraine Ready for Defense? 16:52 - Rift Between Military and Political Leadership 24:52 - Why Approval for Zelensky Is Going Down 29:07 - How long can Ukraine last without foreign aid 35:01 - What Trump Re-Election Would Mean for Ukraine 39:46 - Ukraine and Further Mobilization 47:04 - Should journalists publish negative stories about Ukraine? 54:46 - Good News from Ukraine

This is a conversation with Mark Cancian. Mark is an incredibly accomplished scholar and a soldier - he has spent three decades in the U.S. Marine Corps, served in Vietnam, the Operation Desert Storm and the Iraq War and he has taught and worked at Harvard and John Hopkins Universities and today he serves as a Senior Advisor at the Washington think-tank Center for Strategic and International Studies. But the reason we talked today was because last Mark was one of the leads on an incredibly interesting project that took place last year - the largest and most complex publicly available wargame of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Using an incredible amount of data, a large number of players and 25 iterations, Mark and his colleagues tried to simulate what would happen if China attacked. In this conversation we talked about how this invasion would go down, what would be its result, whether the United States military is ready for it and how to stop it from escalating into a global conflict. You can find the report from the wargame in the description below and now enjoy the podcast.    Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics Wargame report: https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan 00:00 - Intro 01:24 - What would a Chinese invasion look like? 18:19 - Do Chinese wargames have the same results? 23:29 - How should the U.S. military prepare? 34:25 - Is the United States prepared for the mass casualties? 37:05 - Why the U.S. Air Force Needs To Change 39:45 - “The Anti-Chinese Coalition” 43:39 - How to prevent an escalation into a global conflict 46:20 - Probability of a Chinese Invasion

Robert Ward is a Japan Chair at the International Institute for Strategic Studies with decades of experience with Japanese security, defense and foreign policy. We talked about why Japan is abandoning its pacifism, how does it see the threat from China and whether Japan would join a potential war over Taiwan. Enjoy.

Dr. Christian Molling is a deputy director of The German Council on Foreign Relations's Research Institute and the head of its Center for Security and Defense and an expert on German and European foreign and security policy and defense industry. And he is also a co-author of a recent report called Preventing the Next War which has received an unprecedented amount of attention across Europe and which calls on Germany and NATO to urgently prepare for a potential large-scale war with Russia that might happen in the next 6 to ten years.

Mark Galeotti is the director of the consulting firm Mayak Intelligence, honorary professor at UCL, former advisor to the Foreign Office and one of the most widely recognized experts on Russia and its security and foreign policy. We talked about why so many experts failed to predict the Russian invasion, whether Putin has a grand strategy and why Putin's regime is much more fragile than it seems. Enjoy.