Reformasi Dispatch

Indonesia’s Islamic firebrand suddenly won early release from prison.  The founder of the banned Islamic Defenders Front (FPI) has repeatedly shook national politics -- but conditions have changed since his zenith in 2017 and Reformasi Dispatch discusses what might come next.  Also: A major step back on climate policy as the government indefinitely postponed its long-awaited tax on carbon; Jeff and Kevin discuss the overlap of political and industrial interests at stake.  And the latest cooking-oil imbroglio.  Get a free trial of the Reformasi Weekly Newsletter at:https://bit.ly/reformasifreeSupport us on buymeacoffee.com/reformasiIt takes a lot of money to run a podcast. You need subscription fees for hosting, audio recording services, editor's salary and music licensing. Luckily, you, estemeed listeners of Reformasi Dispatch podcast can help us.You can donate to us on buymeacoffee.com/reformasi and help us grow!

Kevin and Jeff talk with Harvard academic and pollster Seth Soderborg about the art and science of taking the temperature of the Indonesian electorate. It's a tough and expensive process. Use phones or online surveys and you risk missing huge chunks of the population with no regular access to the Internet. And respondents don't tend to like to express a definitive opinions, opting if possible for a middle-of-the-road answer. Still, answer they do -- at length -- meaning that if you have the resources and time reputable opinion surveys can turn out surprisingly accurate data. For well over a year, polling regarding presidential preference for the February 2024 election has clearly shown three potential nominees well ahead of all others, namely: two-time past contender Lt Gen (ret) Prabowo Subianto; Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo; and Jakarta Gov Anies Baswedan.  An April poll by Indikator Politik showed that, in a field of 19 potential candidates, Ganjar and Prabowo were on top, with support from 27 percent and 24 percent of respondents, respectively.  Because the poll’s error margin was three percentage points, this technically constitutes a tie.  But that poll also showed that only 73 percent of respondents recognized Ganjar’s name, while 98 know Prabowo – in effect, constituting upside potential for Ganjar as he becomes more well-known.  Baswedan garnered 19 percent in the poll, while no others won support from more than four percent.  In late May, a poll by Litbang Kompas also identified Ganjar and Prabowo in a virtual tie for first, with Baswedan in third.Enjoy the show!Get a free trial of the Reformasi Weekly Newsletter at:https://bit.ly/reformasifreeSupport us on buymeacoffee.com/reformasiIt takes a lot of money to run a podcast. You need subscription fees for hosting, audio recording services, editor's salary and music licensing. Luckily, you, estemeed listeners of Reformasi Dispatch podcast can help us.You can donate to us on buymeacoffee.com/reformasi and help us grow!

President Joko Widodo's sudden plan to engage in personal diplomacy with Putin involves high stakes.   Prospects for progress are daunting, but the  trip marks a welcome foray by Indonesia's leader into international affairs.  Ukraine's ambassador to Indonesia joins the pod to put the effort in context and help shed light on what is reasonable to anticipate.  Also: Megawati uncorks more vitriol aimed towards Ganjar, and all sides gear up for yet another tussle over an attempt to revise Indonesia's antiquated Criminal Code (KUHP).  Get a free trial of the Reformasi Weekly Newsletter at:https://bit.ly/reformasifreeSupport us on buymeacoffee.com/reformasiIt takes a lot of money to run a podcast. You need subscription fees for hosting, audio recording services, editor's salary and music licensing. Luckily, you, estemeed listeners of Reformasi Dispatch podcast can help us.You can donate to us on buymeacoffee.com/reformasi and help us grow!

Indonesia's new and renewable energy bill includes provisions to support development of fossil fuels including coal bed methane and coal gasification. Also on the pod: Elite support solidifies for Ganjar, and a mini reshuffle.Get a free trial of Reformasi Weekly Newsletter at:https://bit.ly/reformasifreeSupport us on buymeacoffee.com/reformasiIt takes a lot of money to run a podcast. You need subscription fees for hosting, audio recording services, editor's salary and music licensing. Luckily, you, estemeed listeners of Reformasi Dispatch podcast can help us.You can donate to us on buymeacoffee.com/reformasi and help us grow!

Former VP nominee Sandiaga Uno joins Reformasi Dispatch to discuss his portfolio as tourism minister at a crucial juncture for the sector.   Jeff and Kevin examine the significance of Golkar's entrance into the 'United Indonesia Alliance' with Pan and PPP -- without any mention of Party Chair Airlangga Hartarto as its presidential contender.  Also: the mysterious Acute Hepatis outbreak and how the Widodo administration will utilize its remarkable windfall from an across-the-board boom in exports (spoiler: fuel subsidies die hard). Get a free trial of Reformasi Weekly Newsletter at:https://bit.ly/reformasifreeSupport us on buymeacoffee.com/reformasiIt takes a lot of money to run a podcast. You need subscription fees for hosting, audio recording services, editor's salary and music licensing. Luckily, you, estemeed listeners of Reformasi Dispatch podcast can help us.You can donate to us on buymeacoffee.com/reformasi and help us grow!

Kevin and Jeff interview Andy Yentriani, chairwoman of Indonesia's National Commission on Violence Against Women. Indonesia's landmark law on sexual crimes offers unprecendented protections against unwanted sexual advances and recriminations from alleged perpetrators. It has big shortcomings, too. Legislators have left treatment of rape for inclusion in a long-delayed revised criminal code. And enforcement will be left up to Indonesia's mostly male criminal justice system. But the new law is at last official recognition of Indonesia's yawning gender divide.Get a free trial of Reformasi Weekly Newsletter at:https://bit.ly/reformasifreeSupport us on buymeacoffee.com/reformasiIt takes a lot of money to run a podcast. You need subscription fees for hosting, audio recording services, editor's salary and music licensing. Luckily, you, estemeed listeners of Reformasi Dispatch podcast can help us.You can donate to us on buymeacoffee.com/reformasi and help us grow!

Controlling domestic cooking-oil prices is President Widodo's reason for banning Indonesia's exports of palm oleins, which the world relies upon for food and cosmetics.  Will the draconian measure actually work?  If so, when?  Global concerns about food inflation are at stake.  Also on the pod: the Lowy Institute's Ben Bland discusses Indonesian attitudes toward democracy, international relations and world leaders, based on Lowy's new poll findings.  Jeff and Kevin discuss the implications of Indonesia's first-quarter trade data and the start of the annual 'mudik' exodus from cities for Idul Fitri.Support us on buymeacoffee.com/reformasiIt takes a lot of money to run a podcast. You need subscription fees for hosting, audio recording services, editor's salary and music licensing. Luckily, you, estemeed listeners of Reformasi Dispatch podcast can help us.You can donate to us on buymeacoffee.com/reformasi and help us grow!

In a breakthrough for social reform, the government and parliament outlawed assorted types of sexual abuse while introducing safeguards for victims.  Jeff and Kevin discuss how this overdue law, despite some shortcomings, can now serve as a platform for sustained efforts to improve justice in practice.  Also, Eurasia Group analyst Peter Mumford joins the pod to review precarious economic conditions in certain neighboring Asian countries, with an assessment of effects on views of Indonesia.  Finally, Jeff and Kevin review the recent decision to divide Papua Province into four parts -- the history, current dynamics and prospects.  Support us on buymeacoffee.com/reformasiIt takes a lot of money to run a podcast. You need subscription fees for hosting, audio recording services, editor's salary and music licensing. Luckily, you, estemeed listeners of Reformasi Dispatch podcast can help us.You can donate to us on buymeacoffee.com/reformasi and help us grow!

Reformasi Dispatch discussed Indonesia's energy transition with Robert O. Blake, the former US ambassador to Indonesia and now a senior advisor to US Special Climate Envoy John Kerry.  The US has identified Indonesia as a country with promising prospects for cooperation on climate action and Ambassador Blake recently concluded a high‑level visit to Jakarta on the topic.  Decommissioning coal-fired power plants is a priority -- as is progress on regulatory reform to facilitate investment-grade projects for renewable energy.  Also: Jeff and Kevin discuss acrimony surrounding preparations for the Bali G20, as well as the president's latest stance on election postponement and some difficult fiscal choices ahead amid high energy prices.Support us on buymeacoffee.com/reformasiIt takes a lot of money to run a podcast. You need subscription fees for hosting, audio recording services, editor's salary and music licensing. Luckily, you, estemeed listeners of Reformasi Dispatch podcast can help us.You can donate to us on buymeacoffee.com/reformasi and help us grow!

We are still on hiatus for this week. Meanwhile, we would like to introduce you to one of our best interview of the pod with Edward Tirtanata, founder of Kopi Kenangan.Support us on buymeacoffee.com/reformasiIt takes a lot of money to run a podcast. You need subscription fees for hosting, audio recording services, editor's salary and music licensing. Luckily, you, estemeed listeners of Reformasi Dispatch podcast can help us.You can donate to us on buymeacoffee.com/reformasi and help us grow!