Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast

The notion of a 'safe withdrawal rate,' being a real amount that can be taken out of savings in retirement each year without a significant risk of running out of money in some window of time, goes back to a 1994 paper by Bengen which enshrined the "4-percent rule." In this podcast, the Inflation Guy discusses improvements to that rule - including some that he popularized - especially when it comes to the need to add some inflation-proofing to an asset mix that needs to keep up with inflation! The IG still prefers personal liability-driven-investing, but investment do-it-yourselfers who like rules of thumb need to know that there are easy ways to improve on the 4% rule...and some not-so-obvious pitfalls in using it blindly! The Inflation Guy also responds to an excellent listener email about last week's episode.   NOTES Podcast callback: Ep. 91: Quality Adjustment (?) in College Tuition Inflation The Inflation Guy's Society of Actuaries paper: Maximizing Personal Surplus: Liability-Driven Investment for Individuals To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the new website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

In this episode, the Inflation Guy considers the question of why college tuition inflation has consistently run drastically faster than headline inflation. Is it a productivity question, or a quality question? And what does 'quality' mean in the context of college education? There are a lot of complex issues to be considered here, which ordinarily would mean you shouldn't ask someone who does his best thinking in the shower, but because we are talking about inflation we are right in his wheelhouse. It's an interesting thought process, which brings up parallels to medical care, rides at Disney, and fins on automobiles! The Inflation Guy also editorializes on Germany's recent decision to stop further issuance of inflation-linked bonds.   NOTES To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the new website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

This month's CPI report was softer than expected, which is welcome. And there were some quantitative effects in the data which (while expected in the big picture sense) are encouraging. However, a lot of the improvement this month were from fairly obvious one-off categories that moved in the opposite direction from what third-party surveys (for example) were suggesting they would - and most of these will end up being paid back in another CPI report soon. The Inflation Guy walks through it all! NOTES To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the new website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

The Inflation Guy has a little thing about risk. Not merely avoiding it, and certainly not seeking it - but counting it. By carefully decomposing risks into component parts, a portfolio manager can be better prepared for the sorts of risks that can befall a portfolio and also find cheaper ways to express the sorts of risk that he or she wants to have in that portfolio. In this episode, the IG talks about how he thinks of risks, and his mission to decompose everything. Which sort of sounds gross when we say it that way. NOTES Podcast Callback: “Ep. 19: Dual Duration – Why TIPS are Exactly Half the Story” Medical Care Inflation Security: Macro Shares Medical Inflation Up Trust (never issued) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the new website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

This morning's Payrolls Report was weaker-than-expected; among other things it included an increase in the Unemployment Rate to 3.9% - fully 1/2% higher than April's low for that number. Does this mean that we are going to have slower wage growth, and slower inflation? Or possibly one of those and not the other? And what does it mean for growth? The Inflation Guy reviews the historical record of prior periods when the Unemployment Rate rose off a prior low, and reaches an unfortunate conclusion. NOTES Blog Callback: “The Phillips Curve is Still Working Just Fine” Blog Callback: “Money Velocity Update!” To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the new website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

In this too-late-in-the-week episode of Cents and Sensibility, the Inflation Guy takes on supply and demand curves, market clearing prices and quantities, and says you're doing it all wrong. It's more nuanced than that, but they charge us by the word for these summaries. NOTES Blog Callback: “Shortages are Unmeasured Inflation” https://inflationguy.blog/2021/10/24/shortages-are-unmeasured-inflation/   Blog Callback: “Enough With Interest Rates Already” https://inflationguy.blog/2021/10/24/shortages-are-unmeasured-inflation/ To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the new website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Sometimes, the episodes write themselves. In Episode 84, the Inflation Guy pointed out that with real yields now comfortably above 2%, TIPS are at least fair and possibly just downright attractive from a long-term perspective. "Is it Time to Buy TIPS?" he asked. But back in Episode 31, the Inflation Guy discussed "Why Gold is Like TIPS (or Vice-Versa)." So, by the commutativity principle of podcasting (actually we just made that up), it follows that we should probably ask "Is it Time to Buy Gold?" So in this episode, the IG squares the circle and answers that question. [He also clarifies that gold is lots heavier than TIPS. So they're not identical or anything. For that matter you can't make a necklace out of TIPS.]   NOTES Podcast Callback: “Why Gold is Like TIPS (or Vice-Versa)” https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-31-why-gold-is-like-tips-or-vice-versa/   Podcast Callback: “Is it Time to Buy TIPS?” https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-84-is-it-time-to-buy-tips/ Blog Callback: “How Higher Rates Cause Big Changes in the Bond Contract” https://inflationguy.blog/2023/10/17/how-higher-rates-cause-big-changes-in-the-bond-contract/ To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the new website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Another month, another CPI report. In recent months' reports, the Inflation Guy has warned "Don't Get Used to It!" (Episode 77) and "The Easy Part is Over" (Episode 81). Those months saw flaccid CPI figures that were easy to see through, and this month inflation returned to something approximating the old trend. In this episode, the Inflation Guy walks through the report with an eye to what happened, but more importantly what happens next. You will want to know why he thinks that the hard part...has just begun.   NOTES Praxis Financial Publishing Q&A of the Inflation Guy: https://lnkd.in/emCrcnHs Blog Callback: “Enough With Interest Rates Already” https://inflationguy.blog/2023/06/21/enough-with-interest-rates-already/ To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the new website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

This is an episode with a call to action! In this episode, the Inflation Guy discusses the current state of nominal and inflation-linked yields, and gives some historical context as to where those stand in the Grand Scheme of Things. In doing so, he explains why TIPS' downside is much more well-defined that those of normal Treasury notes, and why the current level makes it a good time...well, anyway, you can listen to the episode and find out!   NOTES To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the new website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

So often, the Inflation Guy is asked to recommend a good book on inflation. Just one? That's crazy. There are oodles of good books on inflation, and in this episode the Inflation Guy recommends eight. Okay, one of the recommendations was less-than-enthusiastic. But these are all worth reading. Listen to the podcast, and visit the links below to see the books in Amazon or other site. [erratum - Inflation Guy in this episode refers to the author of Economics as Robert Samuelson. He obviously misspoke because no reasonably-educated economics student wouldn't know that Economics was written by Paul Samuelson, who won a Nobel Prize by the way. Also William D. Nordhaus, who did not.] NOTES Podcast Callback: Ep. 15: An Interview with Special Guest Milton Friedman Books Referred to: Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White, 1933 (free pdf) When Money Dies, Adam Fergusson, 2010 Inflated: How Money and Debt Built the American Dream, R. Christopher Whalen, 2010 The Great Inflation and Its Aftermath: The Past and Future of American Affluence, Robert J. Samuelson, 2010 (funny how many of these are from 2010. Never noticed that before.) Money Mischief: Episodes in Monetary History, Milton Friedman, 1994 Asking About Prices: A New Approach to Understanding Price Stickiness, Alan Blinder, Elie Canerri, David Lebow, 1998 The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival, Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan, 2020 The Mandibles: A Family, 2029-2047, Lionel Shriver, 2017 To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the new website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/