Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast

Explore the intriguing link between California's wildfires and inflation trends. The discussion highlights the importance of skilled analysts in properly interpreting economic data. Discover how large-scale disasters like wildfires could influence monetary policy, housing markets, and even GDP forecasts. The conversation delves into the complexities surrounding inflation, reminding listeners that natural calamities have far-reaching economic consequences.

For more than a year now, the story about inflation and why inflation was almost certainly going to stay high (in the 'high 3s, low 4s' on median inflation, as the Inflation Guy has long held) was a story about the guaranteed rebound in money velocity. That has been an easy story and forecasting medium-term inflation has been consequently pretty easy. That is changing. Velocity has made a round trip to where it was prior to COVID. And that means that the underlying drivers of inflation going forward are changing. In this episode, the Inflation Guy explains what that means for the future of inflation.   NOTES Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (October 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/11/13/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-october-2024/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/   Now just $29.99/quarter! To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

This is one of the rare podcast episodes that you might consider listening to at 75% speed instead of 125%. Because the Inflation Guy is feeling feisty, and when he feels feisty he talks fast. And he's feisty because today (why today, of all days? No one knows) he is especially triggered by the bad economics going around that suggests that mass layoffs of Federal employees would be recessionary and very painful. Au contraire, says the Inflation Guy (or he would say that, were he French) - firing Federal workers is a positive supply shock. Listen, and find out in what way laying off Federal workers is like mass deportations of illegal immigrants. NOTES Goodhart, Charles and Manoj Pradhan, The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival (Product link: https://amzn.to/493QbJK ) Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (October 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/11/13/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-october-2024/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/   Now just $29.99/quarter! To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Well, it was always a risk for the Fed to start their rate-cutting path with a highly-unusual 50bps cut, while inflation was still high. But after today's CPI report, that unusual (some would say suspiciously political-looking) move puts the Fed in a difficult bind. In this episode, the Inflation Guy talks about the CPI report and explains how the Fed-Congress quid-pro-quo that has existed for decades now puts the FOMC in a sticky situation. NOTES Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/    (we may close up subscriptions to this soon) To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Contrary to a lot of expectations, we already seem to know the basic shape of American government going forward, with Donald Trump as President with a Republican Senate and (likely) a marginally Republican House. In this podcast episode, the Inflation Guy addresses the initial market moves, which he characterizes as the "Trump caricature" response, and explains which of these moves make sense, and which are likely senseless knee-jerk reactions to cartoonish representations of Trump's likely priorities come January 20th. NOTES Ashton, Michael, The Efficient Tariff: Systematically Balancing Security and Welfare Concerns (March 1, 1992). The American Economist, Vol 36, No 1, 1992, pp 44-52. , Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2915287 Blog post on sizing positions when volatility changes: “Kicking Tails” (Feb 2018) https://inflationguy.blog/2018/02/12/kicking-tails/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (September 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/10/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-september-2024/ ) Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/    (we may close up subscriptions to this soon) To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

This discussion dives into the latest Consumer Price Index report and the perplexities of inflation trends. The analysts reveal surprising rises in core inflation and unpack how various costs, like housing and college tuition, might shape future trends. They caution against jumping to conclusions about the Fed’s recent interest rate cut, suggesting it could be a misstep amid emerging economic pressures. A thoughtful analysis of data context uncovers the potential pitfalls of cognitive biases in understanding inflation.

In this discussion, Chris Clothier, Co-CIO of CG Asset Management, shares his expertise on the role of inflation-linked bonds in portfolio construction. He delves into their advantages and risks, emphasizing how they provide inflation protection during economic downturns. The conversation also touches on macroeconomic trends reshaping strategies, the implications of globalization's end, and how historical connections to inflation can inform today's investing. Clothier’s insights are invaluable for anyone looking to navigate the complexities of modern finance.

A rogue's gallery of inflation hucksters have made lots of money over the years by preying on the sense that the average consumer/investor has that "my inflation is higher than the CPI," with some spin usually on how the gov'mint is intentionally understating inflation for some nefarious reason. These hucksters take advantage of the fact that, for reasons that are so native to the economic system that Daniel Kahneman won a Nobel Prize for describing them, consumers perceptions are not just biased, but biased in systematic ways - which, in the case of inflation, always tends to increase the perceived level of inflation. In this episode of Cents and Sensibility, the Inflation Guy explains how these biases operate on our sense of inflation. If you too want to sound erudite at your next cocktail party - "Actually, Muffy, inflation just seems like it's 10% because..." - then this is a must-listen episode. If not, then you're also probably invited to more cocktail parties than the Inflation Guy is.   NOTES Ashton, Michael, “Real-Feel” Inflation: Quantitative Estimation of Inflation Perceptions, Business Economics, Volume 47, pages 14–26, (2012)  (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/be.2011.35 ) Blog callback: Eighth Grade Math vs Shadowstats (https://inflationguy.blog/2021/05/25/eighth-grade-math-vs-shadowstats/ ) Podcast callback: Ep. 72: Chapwood Index vs CPI – Which is the Better Inflation Index?     (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-72-chapwood-index-vs-cpi-%e2%80%93-which-is-the-better-inflation-index/ ) Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (August 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/09/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-august-2024/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/    (we may close up subscriptions to this soon) To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Join The Inflation Guy, a seasoned expert in analyzing economic trends, as he breaks down the latest CPI report with sharp insights. He reveals why the recent inflation numbers may not be as alarming as they seem and what that means for potential Federal Reserve interest rate changes. The conversation highlights the vital role of shelter in core inflation and discusses how mixed signals in core goods and rental costs could impact economic decisions. Tune in for a balanced view that challenges common inflation narratives!

The August vacation time is over, and we now hurtle into the unknown last third of the year. The Inflation Guy starts this journey by clearing his desk of the small inflation stories that are interesting and worth discussing, but don't by themselves warrant a full episode. He discusses power, supply chains, price-linked currencies, Japan's experience with trying to get more inflation, and sticky renters. Enjoy, and find all of the links to the source articles below!   NOTES Blog Post: “A Price-Linked USD” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/08/28/a-price-linked-usd/ ) WSJ Article: “Pay Your Rent, Get 2% Cash Back: Landlords Join Craze for Rewards” (https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/pay-your-rent-get-2-cash-back-landlords-join-craze-for-rewards-8bf68ee3) Utility Dive: “PJM capacity prices hit record highs, sending build signal to generators” (https://www.utilitydive.com/news/pjm-interconnection-capacity-auction-vistra-constellation/722872/ ) Reuters: “US importers balk at return of $10,000 container shipping rate” (https://www.reuters.com/business/us-importers-balk-return-10000-container-shipping-rate-2024-07-15/ ) NY Times “Japan Wanted Higher Inflation. It’s Here, and It Hurts.” (https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/29/business/japan-inflation-rates.html ) Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (July 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/08/14/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-july-2024/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/    (we may close up subscriptions to this soon) To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/