Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast

Discover the intriguing world of inflation-linked investments and the launch of a new cryptocurrency aimed at protecting your purchasing power. From initial skepticism about cryptocurrency to the innovative concept of USDI, the conversation highlights how asset-backed stablecoins can bridge traditional finance and the crypto landscape. Learn how this ERC-20 token is designed to be collateralized by real-world assets, offering a fresh approach to safeguarding value amidst inflation challenges.

Welcome to CPI Day - this one, in the midst of a head-spinning market turmoil. This moves the CPI report back a little bit in terms of its importance, but the underlying inflation pressures and the effect on prices of tariffs, going forward, are a big part of the reason for the market turmoil. Uncertainty implies lower prices for risky assets, and we are seeing that. It also has implications for inflation itself, through velocity, and for the hurdle to make policy moves as a central banker. Join the Inflation Guy as he untangles today's CPI report, and a lot of the surrounding noise.   NOTES Episode callback: “Ep. 137: Drug Prices and the Most-Favored-Nation Clause” https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-137-drug-prices-and-the-most-favored-nation-clause/ Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (February 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/03/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-february-2025/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/    To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/  

Tomorrow, April 2nd, is 'Reciprocal Tariff Day,' when the US will impose tariffs designed to equalize (how well, no one knows) the tariffs faced by foreign imports to the US with the tariffs faced by US exports to other countries. From everything you read, this is going to be a calamity. But the Inflation Guy has a different take, and it comes from an understanding of how manufacturing actually works - with job 1 always being Make Sure the Worst Outcome Doesn't Happen. Listen to this (unscripted!) episode to hear what he means by this. NOTES Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (February 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/03/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-february-2025/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/  To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

The pricing and distribution of pharmaceuticals is one of the most opaque major pricing systems in the United States. There are oligopolies at the wholesaler level and at the Pharmacy Benefits Manager (PBM) level, which completely control consumer-level pricing. The Inflation Guy explains this system, which has attracted the ire of President Trump in the past since Americans also pay much higher prices for medications than consumers in other countries pay for the same medications; in 2020 President Trump called for a Most-Favored-Nation clause to be applied to drug companies but his first term ended before he could pursue it. Expect the topic to come up again...and this time, you'll understand why it's a great cudgel but doesn't really address the problem!   NOTES Inflation Guy Blog Post: “Drug Prices and Most-Favored-Nation Clauses: Considerations” https://inflationguy.blog/2020/08/25/drug-prices-and-most-favored-nation-clauses-considerations/ Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (February 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/03/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-february-2025/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/   Now just $29.99/quarter! To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

It's time for the monthly CPI report, and this one seems apiece with other economic happenings recently: December and January were all over the place, but in February the inflation numbers are settling back down. The problem is, they're settling in at too high a level, and it gets harder and harder to see how we are going to get inflation back to the Fed's target. Not that the Fed really cares very much, and the Inflation Guy explains why that is.   NOTES Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (February 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/03/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-february-2025/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/   Now just $29.99/quarter! To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

We are moving too fast, with too many topics! The Inflation Guy hits on four different topics today before running out of time and deferring some until the next episode. Today, (a) Is the 'DOGE Dividend' inflationary? (b) How impactful are 25% tariffs on the price level? (And ironically, taxpayers might actually make money in real terms on the deal). (c) Are we going to get a recession, and what does that even mean these days? (d) Why are implied volatilities so low with policy uncertainties so high? More next week... NOTES Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (January 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/02/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-january-2025/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/   Now just $29.99/quarter! To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Today the Inflation Guy answers a listener's question, which is 'if the US were ever to have sustained 0% inflation, what would the effects be?' It is a simple question but it leads to some profound thoughts about what price stability is, and what it means...if anything. Of course, you have to listen to the Inflation Guy's weekly gripe first, but you can fast forward through that part. (It makes him feel good so we leave it in.) NOTES Nalebuff and Ayres Book: Why Not?: How to Use Everyday Ingenuity to Solve Problems Big And Small https://amzn.to/4hKssS8 Blog Post on interest rates and inflation: “Enough with Interest Rates Already” https://inflationguy.blog/2023/06/21/enough-with-interest-rates-already/ Blog Post on Corn: “Corn Prices – Has the Correction Run its Course?” https://inflationguy.blog/2022/09/21/corn-prices-has-the-correction-run-its-course/ Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (January 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/02/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-january-2025/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/   Now just $29.99/quarter! To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

It's the monthly inflation report for January's CPI, and this one was surprising. It would have been alarming, except that we have been through five years of inflation unlike anything we had seen since the 1980s. So, we're jaded. The Inflation Guy walks through today's report and considers wildfires, tariffs, and most-favored-nation status. A tour de force!   NOTES Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (January 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/02/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-january-2025/ ) Blog on "Drug Prices and Most-Favored-Nation Clauses: Considerations" from August 2020 https://inflationguy.blog/2020/08/25/drug-prices-and-most-favored-nation-clauses-considerations/ To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/   Now just $29.99/quarter! To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Explore the curious dynamics of money velocity and its subtle impact on inflation, as trends show a slight decline that might surprisingly cool inflation rates. Delve into how economic uncertainty shapes cash demand, particularly with recent policy shifts in the U.S. This discussion highlights the complex interplay between interest rates and inflation, shedding light on the broader implications of these economic fluctuations. Uncover the unexpected factors that could influence financial stability in turbulent times.

It seems every day these days we hear about another tariff being applied to a trading partner of the U.S. (or, more usually, being threatened). The usual media reaction to these threats are something along the lines of saying "Oh my sainted aunt. This sort of talk gives me the vapors" because it is so, so, so bad. Tariffs are archaic shibboleths that no truly modern economist would ever support. Come to think of it, that sounds like the archaic notion that money causes inflation. But we digress. The Inflation Guy in today's episode discussed three things about tariffs that you might have thought you knew...and certainly everyone else seems to think they know...but which don't really work that way in the real world. NOTES Yesterday’s Inflation Guy blog on this topic: “Trump Tactical Targeted Tariffs: A Reminder of the Impact of Tariffs” https://inflationguy.blog/2025/01/29/trump-tactical-targeted-tariffs-a-reminder-of-the-impact-of-tariffs/ Ashton, Michael, The Efficient Tariff: Systematically Balancing Security and Welfare Concerns (March 1, 1992). The American Economist, Vol 36, No 1, 1992, pp 44-52. , Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2915287 Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (December 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/01/15/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-december-2024/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/   Now just $29.99/quarter! To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/