UBS Global Research Pod Hub

Our Chief US Economist shares his views on the outlook for the world’s largest economy, Fed’s reaction path, impact of US presidential election and more. *(This information is subject to a disclaimer at the end of this podcast. Please ensure that you listen to the disclaimer and go to www.ubs.com for further information about UBS).

Valuations are nearly as high & leadership nearly as narrow but this isn’t a 90s style bubble. Unfortunately we don’t have conditions for a long bull-run either *(This information is subject to a disclaimer at the end of this podcast. Please ensure that you listen to the disclaimer and go to www.ubs.com for further information about UBS).

The last US CPI print was hot amidst a tight labour market. After declining 6pp to close to ’18 levels, are we at the end of good news on US inflation? *(This information is subject to a disclaimer at the end of this podcast. Please ensure that you listen to the disclaimer and go to www.ubs.com for further information about UBS)..

If Trump wins, will markets rise again? Investors underestimate the difference in starting points today, listen as Bhanu Baweja, Chief Strategist at UBS, shares two key lessons from the last 100 years of elections. *(This information is subject to a disclaimer at the end of this podcast. Please ensure that you listen to the disclaimer and go to www.ubs.com for further information about UBS).

In this episode we recap sector highlights from last year and lay out what lies ahead for 2024 with Gerry Fowler, Chief European Equity Strategist and Head of Derivatives Strategy at UBS, and Sambuddha Ray, Head of EMEA Product Management for Economics and Macro Strategy at UBS. *(This information is subject to a disclaimer at the end of this podcast. Please ensure that you listen to the disclaimer and go to www.ubs.com for further information about UBS).

Does the market think in terms of countries or sectors? Does the market agree with your notions of stocks being grouped into sectors? Which parts of the market require a top-down approach, and which ones bottom-up? *(This information is subject to a disclaimer at the end of this podcast. Please ensure that you listen to the disclaimer and go to www.ubs.com for further information about UBS).

It is increasingly recognized that the energy transition also requires a commodities transition. Listen as Phineas Glover, Head of APAC ESG Research at UBS, discusses our latest Net Zero Transition Materials model and scenarios to help identify the best commodity and company type exposures to the commodities transition. *(This information is subject to a disclaimer at the end of this podcast. Please ensure that you listen to the disclaimer and go to www.ubs.com for further information about UBS).

In this second of two podcasts, we lay out the key trades and market calls from our recently published Outlook. *(This information is subject to a disclaimer at the end of this podcast. Please ensure that you listen to the disclaimer and go to www.ubs.com for further information about UBS).

The podcast discusses the key economics calls and main features of the global economics and markets outlook for 2024-2025. Topics include global growth forecast decrease, disinflation and policy easing, negative impact of global credit impulse, and forecasted U.S. recession. It also explores scenarios and models for global economic growth, such as European consumption improvement, likelihood of US recession, impact of lower China growth, disinflation process, and view on central bank actions.

With 70% of personal wealth in property, many consumers are facing declining real estate prices for the first time in their lives. Additionally, lack of job security and wage reductions further amplify the negative wealth effect. As such consumers choose to save rather than spend money, the impact is widespread. *(This information is subject to a disclaimer at the end of this podcast. Please ensure that you listen to the disclaimer and go to www.ubs.com for further information about UBS).