The Contrarian Investor Podcast

This podcast episode was recorded on Feb. 25 and released to premium subscribers (without ads) the following day. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of this and a host of other benefits, visit Contrarian.Supercast.com or ContrarianPod.substack.com and sign up! Tobias Carlisle of Acquirers Funds rejoins the podcast to discuss the stock market's latest dramatic reversal, this time over Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and why investors may be a bit too bullish at present... Content Highlights How to take the huge reversal last week with Russia-Ukraine? (3:11) Every war starts with "the boys will be home by Christmas," but most tend to drag on longer than anticipated. Sometimes a lot longer... (5:13); Growth stocks have been in correction territory for some time. Are they in a bear market? Probably... (8:52); The interest rate cycle has not started tightening but inflation has the Fed caught between a rock and a hard place (15:53); Energy and energy stocks are still cheap. Then there are defense contractors. Lockheed Martin (LMT) has benefited from Russia-Ukraine and Carlisle is a holder... (21:25); Facebook aka Meta (FB) is also cheap (23:20); Non-fungible tokens, or NFTs: Dead as Disco (30:12); The aim of investing is to survive the bad times and they are "probably here" (37:18). More From the Guest Website: AcquirersFund.com; Twitter: @Greenbackd; Books: The Acquirer's Multiple and Deep Value via Amazon.

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on Feb. 9. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits, visit Contrarian.Supercast.com or ContrarianPod.substack.com and sign up! Herald van der Linde, head of Asia equity strategy for HSBC in Hong Kong, joins the podcast to discuss opportunities in emerging Asia. Content Highlights Emerging markets have under-performed developed markets, including in Asia -- but this is not an entirely fair comparison (3:09); What of the premise that much of emerging Asia are simply suppliers to China and therefore dependent on that country? This too is not so simple... (6:01); Markets like Indonesia move independent of China and the U.S. With 250 million people, a growing middle class, and improved infrastructure, this is one area where there are opportunities (8:21); Financial services still have ample room to grow in the region, with large numbers of under-banked individuals. The energy sector, meanwhile, is transitioning (12:45); Background on the guest (19:26); Consumers are a growing force throughout Asia, but individual countries have vastly different spending habits. An overview (24:38); There is one country that nobody is really looking at in professional investing circles. The possibilities are enormous. That country is Bangladesh (31:55). More Information on the Guest Book: Asia's Stock Market from the Ground Up available on GoodReads, Amazon.com also in Kindle edition, and elsewhere; Twitter: @HeraldLinde; LinkedIn.

This episode was recorded on Jan. 27 and aired for premium subscribers on Feb. 2, without ads or interruptions. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits (including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), sign up through Substack or Supercast. Dave Fishwick joins the podcast to make the argument for investing in the Turkish lira after it dropped half its value versus major currencies. The appeal is not just the value but the carry, resulting in the equivalent of 30% to 40% annual interest income. To Fishwick and his team, the trade is not only contrarian but an example of the type of idiosyncratic idea that has no correlation to other parts of the portfolio. The conversation is not limited to Turkey but expands to the U.S., China, and other emerging markets during the second half of the episode. (This podcast was recorded in person at the iConnections conference in Miami. The acoustics were not ideal and there is some background noise as a result. Apologies for the inconvenience.) Content Highlights The macroeconomic policy experiment in Turkey, where the country's central bank took the highly unorthodox step of combating a sovereign crisis by reducing interest rates. The Turkish lira went into freefall as a result (2:24); The lira looks attractive on a real basis, but the real appeal comes in the so-called carry, an often-forgotten part of foreign exchange markets. How this works (3:29); Some background on the strategy by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, which is on the surface frightening. But therein lies the appeal (5:22); Why buy the Turkish lira when the CBRT is cutting rates while the Fed is raising rates? (11:07); If the CBRT succeeds with this experiment, could other emerging market countries follow its example? The strategy is not unprecedented... (13:15); Background on the guest (16:19); Fishwick's view on current markets. The market has re-rated asset classes, despite upbeat economic news (18:43); The present situation may appear bizarre, but it not without parallel. Why it's hard to be bearish for the longer-term (21:48); Other areas of the world that are interesting for investors, especially contrarians (24:11); There are "some similarities" with what happened the last time the Fed entered on a sustained interest hiking campaign (2004 to 2007), but many differences. The key? Watch the inflation data, though the Fed's record on engineering soft landings is poor (27:05). More Information on the Guest Website: MandG.com; LinkedIn.

This episode originally aired for premium subscribers on Jan. 18, the same day it was recorded, without ads or interruptions. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits (including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), sign up through Substack or Supercast. Alex Morris of The Science of Hitting Investment Research joins the podcast to discuss his views of markets, asset allocation, and a couple of stocks he is particularly bullish on at present. The conversation also includes a discussion of the just-announced buyout of Activision (ATVI) by Microsoft (MSFT). (The host has a bit of a throat issue and is hoarse for this recording. Apologies for the inconvenience.) Content Highlights Thinking about asset allocation in a structural manner -- with 90% or more invested in equities (3:32); How then to invest the equity portion? The first filter is business quality (7:43); Disney (DIS) has been one of Alex's favorite stocks for some time with Netflix (NFLX) a more recent favorite (12:26); Background on the guest (22:18); Other portfolio holdings and the Microsoft-Activision (ATVI) deal. Full disclosure: ATVI is/was part of the Contrarian Investor's portfolio for reasons that are briefly discussed (27:31); Could Facebook (FB) be forced to spin off any of its holdings? (32:20); When to sell a stock (36:18); Lastly a short discussion about our favorite soccer/football team (38:50). More on the Guest Website: TheScienceOfHitting.com; Twitter: @TSOH_Investing.

This episode brought to you by StockMarketHats.com. Enter the code "contrarian" at checkout for a 10% discount! This episode originally aired for premium subscribers on Jan. 13, the same day it was recorded, without ads or interruptions. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits (including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), sign up through Substack or Supercast. James Fok joins the podcast to discuss his book 'Financial Cold War: A View of Sino-US Relations from the Financial Markets'. In Fok's view, the fates of China and the U.S. are highly intertwined, and neither country's leaders want the conflict to escalate -- but that could easily change. Content Highlights How the financial cold war is defined, some of the ways it is already impacting society and economics, and the risks of greater conflicts (3:06); Is military conflict between the U.S. and China inevitable? (4:49); The fates of the two countries are highly intertwined but the U.S. dollar and global monetary system have exacerbated imbalances (7:46); Why the belief that the USD's global role is good for the U.S. is a fallacy (11:02); The world needs to become less USD-denominated if the financial Cold War is going to be resolved. There is precedence for this (18:00); Background on the guest (30:00); The state of China's economy and where it's headed (33:44); China's economic problems are clear for all to see, but the social implications are probably being significantly underestimated (36:49). More Information on the Guest Website: JamesAFok.com; Book: Financial Cold War.

This podcast episode was recorded on Jan. 5 and released to premium subscribers that same day -- without ads or announcements. To learn about becoming a premium subscriber, go here. Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his 2022 outlook for the economy and markets. He is broadly optimistic on the former, but less enthusiastic about the latter -- at least in the first half of the year -- with strong possibility of 'uncertainty shocks,' especially around Fed events (sound familiar?) There is also some interesting discussion around interest rates, inflation, and China, among others. Content Highlights (Spotify users can link to the start of the section by clicking on the timestamp) A lot has changed in a year, though probably nothing quite as much as the inflation outlook (3:04); Markets and economics should diverge significantly in the first half of the year (4:51); The Federal Reserve is due to embark on a rate-tightening cycle, which should be negative for markets but will be net-neutral, or perhaps even positive for the economy (8:00); Inflation is running hot, but the guest has done some deep research on similar historical epochs and finds the concern less pressing than most (17:20); The key level for inflation is 4% -- if the CPI exceeds it consistently there could be trouble. Link to the Fed paper referenced here (21:33); Still, there is a strong possibility for 'uncertainty shocks' in the first half of the year (29:52); Finally, China: Reasons to be bearish. Very bearish (34:58). More Information on the Guest Website: IronsidesMacro.com; Newsletter: IronsidesMacro.Substack.com; Twitter: @BarryKnapp.

This podcast episode was recorded on Dec. 15 and released to premium subscribers that same day without ads or announcements. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of this benefit and a host of other services (including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast released each market day morning) go to ContrarianPod.substack.com or Contrarian.Supercast.tech to subscribe. There is a special 40% year-end discount on new memberships through Dec. 31!  Ryan Worch of Worch Capital rejoins the podcast to provide his outlook on stocks for 2022. Spoiler alert: He’s bullish. With certain qualifications. Worch mentions specific securities in the latter half of the episode. Nothing here is intended as investment advice. Content Highlights Worch’s contrarian call: We’re still in a secular bull market (4:14); Underneath the surface there has been “some very real destruction in the speculative part of the markets.” Why this is happening (6:05); Is there any hopes for the Cathie Wood names, meme stocks, cryptos, and NFTs? (9:25); Many people are bearish. Too many (15:33); How Worch Capital is positioning its portfolio and some favorite names (20:45); A brief discussion about inflation (28:09). More Information on the Guest Website: WorchCapital.com; Twitter: @WorchCapital.

This episode originally aired for premium subscribers on Dec. 2, the same day it was recorded, without ads or interruptions. To become a premium subscriber and gain access (as well as take advantage of a host of other benefits, including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), sign up through Substack or Supercast. This episode uses mature language. Discretion is advised for listeners that may be sensitive to this type of thing. Enrique Abeyta of Empire Financial Research rejoins the podcast to discuss his views on the omicron strain of Covid-19 and inflation, and share his excitement about the metaverse. Meta, the company formerly known as Facebook, could become the world's first $5 trillion enterprise. Not intended as investment advice.  Content Highlights The market didn't go down because of omicron or because of what the Fed chair said. What caused the selling instead (5:09); Omicron is not the first Covid strain. It won't be the last. Society and the economy have been able to deal with the variants (6:28); Inflation is another boogey man (8:10); The spike in the VIX is more noteworthy -- and a bullish indicator for stocks (12:39); What about gold? (16:56); The metaverse: It's already here. People just don't realize it yet (24:07); Meta, the stock formerly known as Facebook, is as good a way as any to profit from these developments (27:29); Oil and gas "could go to the moon" (39:52). More Information on the Guest Website: EmpireFinancialResearch.com; Twitter: @EnriqueAbeyta; Everything about HardMoneyMag.

This episode brought to you by StockMarketHats.com. Enter the code "contrarian" at checkout for a 10% discount! This episode originally aired for premium subscribers on Nov. 11, the same day it was recorded, without ads or interruptions. To become a premium subscriber and gain access (as well as take advantage of a host of other benefits, including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), sign up through Substack or Supercast. Emma Muhleman of Ascend Investment Management joins the podcast to make the contrarian argument that inflation is overrated, will not cause the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, and that deflationary forces are the bigger worry for global financial markets. These deflationary forces are both short term (slowdown in China) and long term (demographics in the developed world). Much of the discussion centers around the former. Muhleman's comments are her own and not a reflection of her employer. Nothing here is intended as investment advice. Content Highlights (Spotify listeners can click on the timestamp to link to the start of the segment) The market is pricing in a series of interest rate hikes for the coming 24 months. But the Fed has backed off of a tightening schedule before (2:18); Bonds have been selling off, but investors will find themselves on the wrong side of this trade when Fed backs off of tapering (4:07); Inflation is a supply-side problem that the Fed doesn't have control of. Markets are too fragile to handle rate hikes (5:06); The latest FOMC meeting where tapering was announced "was probably the most dovish taper you could come up with" (9:20); Deflationary forces, starting with China, are a major issue the market is overlooking. This despite the best (non-publicized) efforts by the Chinese government (10:49); It's not just China though; demographics and debt are part of the longer-term trend toward deflation (19:19); Background on the guest (22:33); What about potential headwinds, from China or elsewhere? (24:58); Unwinding Evergrande: Where is the exposure? (29:05); How much longer can the Fed taper before their hand is forced to back off? (31:17); What indicators should investors keep an eye on to monitor this situation? (34:35). More Information on the Guest Twitter: @Emma_cfa; LinkedIn. mployer. Nothing here is intended as investment advice.  

This episode brought to you by StockMarketHats.com. Enter the code “contrarian” at checkout for a 10% discount! This episode originally aired for premium subscribers on Nov. 4, the same day it was recorded, without ads or interruptions. To become a premium subscriber and gain access (as well as take advantage of a host of other benefits, including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), sign up through Substack or Supercast. Note: The aforementioned service has nothing to do with David Hunter's newsletter. Individuals interested in finding out more about that service should contact David directly by Twitter direct message. David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast to provide updates on his prediction that stock markets are in the final stage of a parabolic melt-up that will be followed by a global bust. Hunter's initial targets for the S&P 500, Dow Industrials, and other U.S. stock market indexes have been breached, causing him to provide new, even more bullish, targets. The bust will likely start with a 'second-quarter swoon' next year, caused by the Federal Reserve overreacting to inflation. The deflationary meltdown will then cause another overreaction by central banks and government fiscal policies. Not intended as investment advice. Content Highlights (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the start of the segment in question) Hunter's new targets on the S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 (2:50); Oil and oil stocks have peaked for this cycle (6:50); The bust should happen about mid-way through 2022 and result in oil prices back in the mid-$20s range (8:25); The cycle will end because the Federal Reserve tightens interest rates due to inflationary pressures (10:28); Central banks around the world are withdrawing quantitative easing and some have even started to adjust interest rates higher. This will affect things and force the Fed's hand. Resolution of supply chain issues would increase the pressure (15:54); China will definitely play a major role in the bust, though Evergrande is probably just the tip of the iceberg (19:27); What happens after the bust is an unprecedented flow of liquidity. Yes, even more than COVID. There will be bank failures, though more in Europe and Asia than the U.S. (21:17); Central banks only have one tool to combat this, which is quantitative easing. They will be matched by fiscal stimulus. It will be "March of 2020 on steroids, basically. Multiple steroids" (26:07). More Information on the Guest Twitter: @DaveHContrarian (send him a direct message if you are interested in finding out more about his service).