The Contrarian Investor Podcast

This podcast episode was recorded on Sept. 16, with a short highlight clip containing the most actionable items released to premium subscribers that same day. The full episode was released to premium subscribers without ads or interruptions a day after recording.  Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer at Merk Investments, joins the podcast to discuss his views on stagflation, the Federal Reserve, U.S. dollar, and why the bottom is not yet in for stocks. Content Highlights Printing money does not fix supply issues. Next stop: Stagflation (2:59); The current environment simply is not conducive to taking risks (11:15); There's too much groupthink at the Fed and it's time for Jerome Powell to step down (13:21); The bottom for stocks is not in yet. The Fed needs to pivot first. What to watch for there (15:26); Background on the guest (24:43); The outlook for gold (31:20); How high might the Fed go with interest rates? (34:09). More Information on Axel Merk Website: MerkInvestments.com; Twitter: @AxelMerk; Merk Stagflation ETF and other funds: MerkFunds.com; Not intended as investment advice.

This podcast episode was recorded on Sept. 12, with a short highlight clip containing the most actionable items released to premium subscribers that same day. The full episode was released to premium subscribers without ads or interruptions a day after recording.  To accommodate this new format, and our new production schedule featuring weekly podcasts, subscription prices are scheduled to increase. However, the old rate can be locked in for a limited time through this link (also mentioned in the intro). Richard Excell, former prop trader and portfolio manager and currently a professor of finance at Gies College of Business, joined the podcast to discuss his outlook on the economy, inflation, Federal Reserve interest rate policy, and more. Content Highlights The outlook on inflation: 5% by December, but don't expect the Fed to ease off of rate hikes (7:14); Can the Fed engineer a soft landing? It has succeeded just three of the last 14 times it hiked rates... (9:34); We may not see a housing price decline on a national basis anytime soon (14:05); Expect a 75 basis point rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on Sept. 20 -- and again at the subsequent meeting in November, even though the economy should not start to brake until next year (16:11); Background on the guest (22:02); Views on asset allocation: more constructive for bonds than equities at present (27:03); A recession will happen. The good news: it may be mild... (32:30); How much of a concern are global issues in Europe and China? (35:40). More Information on the Guest Website: GiesBusiness.Illinois.edu; Substack: Stay Vigilant; CommonStock: Stay Vigilant; Twitter: @ExcellRichard,

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on Sept. 1, 2022 without ads or announcements. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits including the Daily Contrarian briefing, visit our Substack or Supercast. Prices start around $9/month. Daniel Partlow, chief risk officer at Advent Capital Management, joins the podcast to discuss convertible bonds. Partlow is a specialist in these securities, having written a book on the subject titled 'Convertible Securities: A Complete Guide to Investment and Corporate Financing Strategies.' Content Highlights First, the basics: What are convertible bonds and how do they work? The asset class has actually been around for more than three centuries... (3:29); Some of the characteristics of converts include a maturity of about four to five years but with low interest rate sensitivity of much shorter duration bonds (6:42); A typical balanced convert will provide downside protection (via the bond floor) and upside potential through the equity participation (9:18); Converts have done well in inflationary environments, with less volatility than stocks (11:44); The default rate for converts is a fraction of high yield and leveraged loans (20:38); Background on the guest (24:59); The specter of stagflation and how converts can protect against that (27:50); Where might there be particular opportunities in the converts market right now? (33:07); Examples of individual securities that may be of interest (37:52). More Background on the Guest Website and link to the book mentioned in the introduction. Additional Information The following slides were supplied by Advent Capitaol Management.

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers two days ago without ads or announcements. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits including the Daily Contrarian briefing, visit our Substack or Supercast. Prices start around $9/month. Chris Hutchins joins the podcast to discuss his strategy for asset allocation, which leans heavily on passive investing and optimizing earnings power rather than picking stocks. In this (admittedly) unorthodox episode he discusses some of his methods. Content Highlights You probably can't beat the market. Instead of trying to optimize the portfolio, why not optimize how quickly money can be put to work? Or maximize income from employment (5:55); Beating the market may be extremely difficult (if not impossible). but educating oneself is still invaluable along several lines that are discussed (8:07); How does Hutchins' asset allocation break down exactly? (10:45); The guest is also a venture capitalist. What areas of technology is he particularly excited about right now? (12:35); What about the VC model itself? (21:30); Background on the guest (30:00); Not investing is as big a mistake as investing incorrectly. Some of the options (35:32); How important is liquidity? (38:44); What has the guest most worried right now? (42:06). More Information on the Guest Twitter: @Hutchins; Website: WealthFront.com; Podcast website: AllTheHacks.com (includes links to podcast),

This podcast episode was recorded on Aug. 3 and released to premium subscribers the following day. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits including the Daily Contrarian briefing, visit our Substack or Supercast. Prices start around $9/month. Hugh Hendry is a man who needs no introduction to contrarians. Over the course of this 90-minute conversation, he provided many views on markets, the economy, the Federal Reserve, China, and a lot more. Of particular interest to investors are his bullish views on commodities, oil producers, and luxury goods makers... Content Highlights Hendry's most contrarian opinion right off the bat: The Fed is not responsible for the asset price bubble (2:40); "We find ourselves in the fourth depression of the last 200 years" after "les miserables" period of 1830 to ~1855, 1870 to the late 1890s, and the 1930s (8:11); "I don't think we have inflation." Sales of non-discretionary items are not increasing (13:53); Very few people understand money and money creation. What are they missing? (28:56); What's behind the stock market rally this summer? It may be commodities, at least in part... (39:49); Markets are 'bucking broncos.' Volatility can be a major distraction and nothing happens in a straight line. But commodity producers and uranium should be in good shape over the long term (46:55); Background on the guest. As an 'OG contrarian' Hendry joins an exclusive list (54:58); A little insight into Hendry's current life and psychology (1:10:40); Betting on the Chinese yuan weakening (1:14:37); The odds of the 10-year treasury making new lows (1:22:44); China invading Taiwan? Hendry sets the odds at 20% and says China will never have a stronger bargaining positioning vis-a-vis the U.S (1:24:16). More Information on the Guest Twitter: @Hendry_Hugh; Substack: HughHendry; Instagram: HughHendryOfficial; YouTube: HughHendryOfficial; The Acid Capitalist.

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on July 26. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits including the Daily Contrarian briefing, visit our Substack or Supercast. Prices start around $9/month. Free trials are available. Louis O'Connor, CEO of Strategic Metals Invest, joins the podcast to make the case for rare earth metals. These commodities, hitherto unavailable to retail investors, are now accessible and entering the mainstream... Content Highlights Rare earth metals (sometimes called rare earth elements) are intrinsic to daily life. They are part of modern technology as diverse as electric cars, military applications, solar applications, nuclear reactors, and more (3:01); China produces more than 80% of the world's rare earths and refines metals even mined in the U.S. (5:39); Okay, so what are these rare metals exactly? There are 17 in all, though not all are exactly rare, or vital... (8:12); Rare earths have outperformed almost all major asset classes the last five years (14:22); The supply picture for rare earths is complicated, while demand is quite inelastic, depending on a diverse set of buyers... (18:58); Rare earths are entering the mainstream and production is increasing in the U.S., where it is more expensive (23:01); There is a specific rare earth where the investment opportunity is particularly compelling at present (31:58); Tellurium, on the other hand, is one that is not deemed particularly advantageous at the moment (35:50). About the Guest Website: StrategicMetalsInvest.com; Twitter: @MetalsInvest; Facebook: StrategicMetalsInvest; YouTube.

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on July 12. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits including the Daily Contrarian briefing, visit our Substack or Supercast. Prices start around $9/month. Free trials are available. Salem Abraham of Abraham Trading Co. joins the podcast to discuss his bullish outlook for oil, predicated on supply issues and under-investment. Content Highlights The shift to renewable energy is real, even in the Texas panhandle. But the transition is still in the very early stages. Oil and gas are still needed -- so are investments in infrastructure (4:13); Worldwide drilling has yet to recover to pre-Covid levels. This will lead to $200/barrel oil and $10 gasoline prices (7:07); "I think we end up with stagflation," but even that will not solve the supply issues (8:50); Natural gas "is still a great investment" (14:14); The benefits of green hydrogen (16:31); There are more pipelines than popularly believed in the U.S. and they are actually more precarious than transmission lines (19:52); Background on the guest (29:36); Liquid alternatives and the need for better diversification (31:37); The Federal Reserve has to regain credibility after the 'transitory' talk. The Fed will blink, eventually... (36:02); Unrelated: Notre Dame will not join the Big 10 for football, says the alumnus (39:49). More Information on the Guest Twitter: @SalemAbraham; Website: AbrahamTrading.com.

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers ton July 5 -- the same day it was recorded. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits including the Daily Contrarian briefing, visit our Substack or Supercast. Prices start around $10/month. Free trials are available. Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannock Burn Global FX, joins the podcast to discuss the precarious state of markets and what he is expecting from upcoming releases of key economic data. He also provides a pair of investment ideas for these times, with the understanding that nothing here is to be taken as investment advice. Content Highlights The coming week brings a number of crucial economic data around employment and inflation. What to expect (2:50); "I don't think we're in a recession yet. But I think it's going to be hard to avoid one." Cracks are appearing and these warrant attention (3:51); Weekly jobless claims (up Thursday) can be a leading indicator of recessions (5:30); Non-farm payrolls are up on Friday. What to expect (11:34); Core inflation is actually receding from highs, but the Fed can't (and more importantly won't) declare victory over inflation quite yet (14:42); Recent days have seen a shift in market sentiment, to where a rate cut is starting to be priced in (17:43); What is an investor to do here? The guest has two ideas, at opposite ends of the risk spectrum (25:23); More on the Guest Website: MarcToMarket.com; Twitter: @MarcMakingSense.

This episode is brought to you by StockMarketHats.com — claiming to be stylish and funny. To avoid ads, consider becoming a premium subscriber. Deer Point Macro joins the podcast to discuss his view that the U.S. Federal Reserve will only hike interest rates once more before easing. Content Highlights The Fed is not some magical organization that can control all parts of monetary economics (2:50); The Fed can create demand for credit, but banks have to provide supply. And banks are pushing back (5:03); What to make of the Fed's rate hikes this year? How has that affected bank portfolios? (9:37); The eurodollar market plays a significant role in Fed policy and its implications. An explanation (13:24); The Fed stands to raise once more, at its next meeting in July, before having to cut rates in September (16:21); Inflation is stubbornly persistent. Doesn't this force the Fed to raise rates? (19:57); Background on the guest (30:14); Markets don't really react to ADP employment data, but for economic detective work it can be vitally important (31:48); How this all translates to asset prices: good for bonds but commercial banks are maybe not as safe as some would think. But regional banks may be a better bet (35:11); What about cryptocurrencies? (36:34); Quick discourse on the so-called 'Fisher effect' that posits that inflation rises as Fed funds increase -- over the long term (39:14). More on the Guest Substack: DeerPointMacro.substack.com; Twitter: @DeerPointMacro; CommonStock: DeerPointMacro.

This episode is brought to you by StockMarketHats.com -- claiming to be stylish and funny. To avoid ads, consider becoming a premium subscriber. Kevin Rendino of 180 Degree Capital joins the podcast to discuss reasons for optimism (yes, optimism) in markets and why we may have already reached "peak pain." Content Highlights Valuations for most of the market are already discounting bad news across the board. Cash balances are at peak levels seen at the start of the pandemic, in 2008, and 2001 (2:44); What segments of the market are particularly interesting right now? Look to semiconductors for starters (4:54); How big of a concern is Fed policy? (7:20); Media companies will benefit as the economy resumes its growth and advertising budgets revamp. There are indications this cycle is already turning (13:49); What is 180 Capital's investing style and how does it work? (16:25); Background on the guest (25:17); The guest meets with company management often. What are some 'red flags' and 'green flags' he looks for? (31:38); The 'great resignation' and which companies may be a great 'pedigree' for future executives (38:18); Some parting guidance and why today's market feels more like 1990 than 2008 (43:17). More Information on the Guest Website: 180DegreeCapital.com; Twitter: @180DegreeCap; "Reasons for Hope" article; Stocks Mentioned on this Podcast 180 Degree Capital (TURN) -- the guest's publicly-traded fund; Lantronix (LTRX); Quantum (QMCO); Arena Group (AREN); Potbelly (PBPB). Not intended as investment advice.