Defense & Aerospace Report

On today’s Look Ahead program, sponsored by HII, Byron Callan of the independent Washington research firm Capital Alpha Partners joins Defense & Aerospace Report Editor Vago Muradian to discuss the Trump administration’s effort to pressure Ukraine to accept Russia’s terms to end the ongoing war or risk losing US support; how the pressure campaign on Kyiv is driving allies and partners to accelerate efforts to reduce their dependence on Washington and US systems; whether Ukraine can satisfy its needs especially if US support ends abruptly; Rheinmetall and Renk capital market’s days; a banner year for initial public offerings, spin offs and a changing defense market; takeaways from the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ report “Deep Precision Strikes: Europe’s Quest for Long-Range Missile Capabilities;” and a look at the week ahead.

On this week’s Defense & Aerospace Report Business Roundtable, sponsored by Bell, Dr. “Rocket” Ron Epstein of Bank of America Securities and Richard Aboulafia of the AeroDynamic advisory consultancy join host Vago Muradian to discuss a dismal week on Wall Street over worries about the economy, AI and whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates; the implications of the Trump administration’s pressure on Ukraine to accept a peace deal that would mean Kyiv accept all of Russia’s demands or risk losing all US support; France’s pledge to sell Ukraine up to 100 Rafale fighters by Dassault as Washington sells 48 of Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Lightning II to Saudi Arabia; Rheinmetall’s capital markets day; takeaways from a busy Dubai Air Show; and Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy call that travelers to be more civil to usher in “a golden age of travel.”

This roundtable features Michael Herson, a defense policy commentator, Dov Zakheim, a former Pentagon comptroller, Jim Townsend, an expert on European security, and Patrick Cronin, an Asia-Pacific strategist. They dive into congressional turmoil over the NDAA, a controversial Ukraine peace plan, and the implications of redistricting for Republicans. Discussions also cover China's increasing pressure on Taiwan, hybrid warfare tactics inspired by Russia, and the geopolitical ramifications of recent U.S. arms sales and international engagements.

Eric Fanning, the CEO of the Aerospace Industries Association and former U.S. Army Secretary, dives into the challenges facing the defense industry. He discusses the impact of uncertain budgets and acquisition reforms on the industrial base. Fanning highlights the need for transparency and bipartisan support to make reforms successful. He also addresses the lessons learned from Ukraine regarding capability integration. Concerns about government equity stakes in defense firms are raised, as well as the importance of creating space for new market entrants.

Sam Bendett, a defense analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses, and Dr. Eugene Rumer, director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, delve into the critical battle for Pokrovsk and its significance in the Donbas region. They discuss Russia's evolving tactics, including targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure, and analyze Ukraine's responses with strategic deep strikes. The conversation also touches on U.S. policy, European support, and the growing importance of unmanned systems in both nations' military strategies.

Bill Lynn, former Deputy Defense Secretary and CEO of Leonardo DRS, shares insights on defense acquisition reforms and industry transformation. He discusses the need for sustained senior-level attention for reforms to take hold and emphasizes prioritizing speed over immediate cost savings. Lynn addresses the growing importance of alliances and the strategic shift in defense focus towards peer competition. He reflects on Washington's political changes over decades and details his vision for DRS's future as a pure-play defense tech firm.

Byron Callan, a senior analyst at Capital Alpha Partners, provides insightful commentary on defense spending and acquisition trends. He discusses the aftermath of the US government shutdown and its impact on the National Defense Authorization Act. Callan critiques Army Secretary Driscoll’s push for commercial sourcing and explains the implications of NATO's shift toward European defense solutions. He also highlights Germany's expanding military budget and the potential for US action in Venezuela, painting a complex picture of global defense dynamics.

Dr. "Rocket" Ron Epstein, a senior equity analyst at Bank of America Securities, joins Sash Tusa, an independent analyst focused on European defense, and Richard Aboulafia from AeroDynamic Advisory. They delve into Wall Street’s mixed signals amid Federal Reserve uncertainties and the implications of the U.S. government shutdown's end. Discussion highlights include NATO's shift from E-7 concepts, Colombia's Gripen jet purchase, and insights into defense procurement reform. The trio also tackles the ongoing tensions between Dassault and Airbus over future air systems.

This week features Michael Herson, a former Capitol Hill staffer; Dr. Dov Zakheim, a former Pentagon comptroller; Jim Townsend, a transatlantic security expert; and Dr. Patrick Cronin, an Asia-Pacific strategy authority. They dive into the implications of the US government shutdown and upcoming appropriations, while also analyzing the complexities of designating 'Antifa' as terrorist organizations. The guests discuss rising tensions over Taiwan, the evolving battlefield in Ukraine, and the significance of the new Australia-Indonesia defense treaty.

Mark Gunzinger, a director at the Mitchell Institute and former B-52 pilot with over 3,000 flight hours, dives into the future of bomber missions. He critiques the single-pilot concept for long-range missions, emphasizing the need for two pilots to handle emergencies and complex mission systems. Gunzinger highlights the risks of relying on automation, arguing it could compromise mission safety. He also discusses the challenges of pilot shortages versus flying capacity, urging investment in crew ratios to maintain effectiveness in operations.