BFBS Sitrep

Denmark says US threats to take Greenland by force would ‘end’ NATO.  Does NATO have any plan to deal with an ally-on-ally attack?  Which side would the UK take if it happened? Or is it all just about Trump’s “art of the deal”?  Former UK ambassador to NATO Lord Ricketts shares his insights.The US was said to have finally offered a security backstop for Ukraine when the UK and France formally signed-off their intent to put boots on the ground for any peace deal.  But when you look at the detail, is there anything actually new there?And why did a fleet of US special-operations aircraft fly into the UK this week?  Was it just for the seizure of an oil-tanker, might it have something to do with Iran, or is it all an attempt to distract from something else?

It’s seven years since the jihadists’ caliphate was brought to a complete end, but IS continues to attack in Syria and there are signs of a potential resurgence.The RAF and French Air Force have just bombed what they believe was an underground weapons and explosives store.Yet the US led coalition against IS, including the UK’s Operation Shader, is supposed to be winding down in 2026.Dr. Charlie Winter, chief research officer of the intelligence platform ExTrac, explains how the fall of President Assad has allowed IS a year of rebuilding, and why the US and UK should not take their eyes off the ball.

The outcome of the Ukraine war is arguably the most immediate key to our security in the UK, and if the fighting ends our Armed Forces may be sent to Ukraine to secure not just its future but also ours.At the same time the Chief of Defence Staff has warned we all need to be prepared for the possibility of war coming to the UK.So what kind of year does this set out for Britain’s servicemen and women?Former Army Officer Dominic Nicholls, now Associate Editor for Defence at The Telegraph, explains why they may be facing their biggest ask since the Falklands War.

President Trump’s “America First” agenda has now been translated into an official security strategy with Europe at the bottom of the list.Will that mean big moves of US military capability away from Europe in 2026, even as war rages in Ukraine?How should the rest of NATO adapt, and how will Russia respond?Retired US Lieutenant General Ben Hodges explains the picture right now, and how it could change over the next year.

China is the world’s fastest growing military power and likes to keep the world guessing.Might it use that military power against Taiwan in 2026, or will this standoff remain the dog that doesn’t bark?Will the crisis between Japan and China remain a diplomatic one, or could harsh words become hard action? And might tensions in the South China Sea boil over?Dr Zeno Leoni, author of “Grand Strategy and The Rise of China” and a lecturer at the Defence Academy of the United Kingdom, shares his thoughts on what lies ahead.

Britain’s Armed Forces go into 2026 with two big missions, become war-ready and transform for a high-tech future.There’s also the possibility of being deployed to Ukraine, if and when the fighting ends, and as always responding to unexpected events.Retired General Sir Richard Barrons, one of the authors of the Strategic Defence Review, explains the tasks, challenges, and events that will face servicemen and women in 2026.

Global tensions are high going into 2026, but will they tip over into fighting and if so, where?Could a battered and bruised Iran hit back against the US and Israel? Will we face a resurgence of jihadist terrorism? And after the most serious clash between India and Pakistan for half a century in 2025, what could be the big surprise of the next 12 months?Shashank Joshi, Defence Editor for The Economist, tells us where he’s watching and why for the next big conflict. 

Could hundreds or thousands of British troops be sent to Ukraine to support a peace plan in 2026? If there’s no deal how can Ukraine turn the tide of Russian gains? And where in the world might we see a new major conflict break out?Sitrep brings together some of the finest minds in defence to assess what the year ahead holds.Will Moldova suffer a stealth invasion of “little green men”? Would we intervene if it did? And have we taken the eye off the ball of global terrorist threats?The Chief of Defence Staff says none of us can tell what the “absolute risk” might be, but that “trends are clear”. Professor Micheal Clarke, Kate Gerbeau and friends explain where those trends are pointing

Donald Trump’s new National Security Strategy prioritises improving relations with Russia and China, while calling for resistance to “weak leaders” in Europe.Professor Michael Clarke explains why he thinks this will embolden Russia rather than giving it an incentive to de-escalate, and former US State Department insider Dr Karin von Hippel assesses what it could mean for the US military footprint in Europe.The head of the Royal Navy has warned we’re “only just holding on” against Russia deep in the Atlantic.  Former submarine captain Ryan Ramsey explains why the service is struggling, while Sian Grzeszczyk Melbourne reveals how and why the First Sea Lord’s speech has caused big waves in Whitehall.And our sovereign bases in Cyprus have played a key role in almost every major British overseas operation in living memory.  So why did the UK nearly abandon them 50 years ago?

When a Greek military coup and Turkish invasion plunged Cyprus into a bloody conflict, more than 30,000 British military personnel and their dependents were caught up in the crisis.They didn’t want to be part of the fighting, but came perilously close to being dragged in, more than once.Kate Gerbeau talks to historian Andrew Southam about his new book, which sheds new light on those events and how they led the government of the time to consider our Cyprus bases “a liability”.