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Stansberry Investor Hour

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Feb 5, 2024 • 1h 32min

It's Time to Upgrade Capitalism

Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing debt spirals, death spirals, their effect on  things like GDP and economic growth, and the increasing reliance on debt spending. They point out that the U.S. government's annual interest payment on debt will soon surpass the budget for national defense. Dan also speculates that the government is using illegal immigration as a means to depress wages. (0:41) Next, crypto expert Eric Wade joins the conversation by discussing his current thoughts on the crypto market as a whole. He notes that the U.S. just approved bitcoin spot ETFs, which will allow investors to profit from bitcoin without actually holding the token. He also brings up the bitcoin halving that's happening this April, AI's role in crypto, and how crypto is being used to solve real-world problems. Eric briefly name-drops two such cryptos that have real- world applications today. (22:08)After, he goes into detail on his new book called America vs. Americans: How Capitalism Has Failed a Capitalist Nation and What We Can Do About It. This book focuses on American "laborism," the shortcomings of our current capitalist system, and how all of this could be improved. Eric describes that government, economics, and politics are a lot closer together than they should be. He explores the history of capitalism and talks about the glaring flaws of the economic system that preceded it – mercantilism. (35:30) Eric then transitions into talking about laborism and how it could be an upgrade from capitalism. He spends the rest of the episode detailing how it could pull millions of folks out of poverty, why it would be so closely tied to education, and the fact it would call for a hard currency and a smaller government with less government intervention. As he explains, it could solve many of the country's problems. (42:35)
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Jan 30, 2024 • 1h 10min

Successful Trading is the Antithesis of Human Nature

Dan and Corey begin the show by discussing evidence that we're still in a bear market. They bring up equal-weight indexes fizzling out since December, the now "Magnificent Six" tech stocks still dominating, and the possibility of a decade long sideways market.  After, contrarian trader Jason Shapiro of digital publishing company Crowded Market Report joins the conversation and gives an overview of his trading style, his financial journey, and how his strategy differs from many other traders'. While others are looking to ride the trend, Jason explains that he's looking to "fade" it and find when the trend will turn. When speaking specifically about putting the risk-reward ratio in his favor over time, he says the discounting mechanism in the market is not price – it's participation. This segues into a discussion about how Jason's process works. He gives advice to individual investors who are just starting out, including warning of the dangers of following trends and "copy trading." He also details how trading goes against human nature. Then, Jason discusses automation in his field of work – when he uses it and when he ignores its advice – and provides some examples of his strategy in action. He emphasizes that market confirmation should always come first Lastly, Jason explains why he's so adamant about sharing his approaches and techniques with everyday investors that they can't find in traditional financial media. And you won't want to miss Jason's answer to the final question... He shares what he believes is the real secret behind making money in the markets.
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Jan 29, 2024 • 1h 7min

The Easiest Way to Rank Almost 5,000 Stocks

Dan and Corey kick things off by discussing Argentine President Javier Milei's incendiary speech at the recent World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. They start by quoting some passages from it and covering the main themes – from the negative consequences of government intervention to potentially abolishing the central bank. After, they talk about why this type of rhetoric from a politician would never fly in the U.S., even though it reflects a lot of people's feelings. Next, Stansberry Research Director of Research Matt Weinschenk joins the conversation and elaborates on what type of investor he considers himself to be. He brings up value investing, the importance of bottom-up business-quality analysis, and how he uses quantitative tools to find the best businesses. Matt then explains the "Stansberry Score," which ranks nearly 5,000 stocks from first to last. It assigns each stock both an overall number and letter grade, plus letter grades for financials, capital efficiency, and valuation. Investors can use it to check ratings on stocks they may be interested in, or they can use it to find hidden gems. If you're interested in learning more about this tool and trying it for free, you can check it out at StansberryAnnouncement.com. Matt also goes into detail on The Quant Portfolio. This new portfolio is fully optimized and uses Stansberry Score data to evaluate each stock. Entirely using computers and algorithms, it looks at the relationships between each stock and picks out the best ones that will work together to provide the highest returns. And so far, it's blowing the market out of the water! Matt emphasizes that in the past two years of live testing, The Quant Portfolio is up 20%, while the market is only up 5.  Lastly, Matt talks all things econometrics – what it is, whether it's worth studying, and its interplay with machine learning.
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Jan 17, 2024 • 1h 15min

Get Ready for Volatility warns Greg Diamond

Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing car-rental company Hertz selling one-third of its electric-vehicle ("EV") fleet and planning to reinvest in gas-powered cars. They talk about the reasons for this move, why EVs might not be a popular choice as rentals, signs that oil and gas companies are still thriving, and how the green-energy transition could lead to higher inflation.   Next, welcome Stansberry Research analyst Greg Diamond joins the conversation and analyzes the current volatility in the markets. He explains that investors and the financial media believe the Federal Reserve has beaten inflation and is going to start cutting rates soon. But as Greg notes, the opposite is most likely to happen. He also goes into detail on his study of cycles.   Then, Greg predicts important inflection points for 2024, describes how legendary trader W.D. Gann influenced his trading strategy, and explores the potential ramifications of the Fed ending its bank lending program in March. He also details why he'll be trading sectors for the first half of the year rather than individual stocks.  Lastly, Greg talks about correlations between the S&P 500 and specific exchange-traded funds. He assesses what it means for the markets when divergences happen and how extreme volatility leads to great buying opportunities. As Greg sums things up, "I think it's going to be a rough ride for bulls and bears."
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Jan 8, 2024 • 1h 10min

Don't Place all Your Chips on One Outcome

Dan and Corey begin the show by discussing Disney. They cover the company's ongoing proxy battle with Nelson Peltz, its recent deal with activist investor ValueAct Capital, the negative impacts of its "wokeism," the new Star Wars director's controversial past comments, and whether the stock is worth buying today. (0:40) Next, Jeff Muhlenkamp joins the conversation and gives his reaction to a "surprising" 2023.  Plus, he talks about what's in store for the markets this year, why it's unclear whether we're headed for a recession or not since, and how you should structure your portfolio to protect you no matter what happens. (26:23) Then, Jeff explains what he learned from the great financial crisis in 2008 and how he applies it to his investing strategy today. He gives investors advice on everything from keeping some cash on hand to handling stocks that soar quickly. (35:40) Lastly, Jeff discusses regional banking (44:00), two notable stock buys (46:47), and his process for picking stocks (51:31). He details which metrics he looks at, why financial newsletters are good places to look for ideas, and how to know when to exit a stock.
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Jan 3, 2024 • 1h

The Top 10 Potential Surprises for 2024

Dan Ferris and Corey McLaughlin kick the episode off by reviewing their list of Top 10 Potential Surprises from 2023 and seeing if any of the surprises materialized. Included in this list was what could happen to the S&P 500 Index, meme stocks GameStop and AMC Entertainment, inflation, bitcoin, mortgage rates, and gold. (0:32) After, Dan and Corey share their new list of potential surprises for 2024...  Magnificent Seven perform poorly (9:38) S&P 500 negative annual return (13:16) Rate cuts (15:58) Gold hits $3,000 (19:15) Bitcoin falls 50%-plus (24:04) PCE at 4% (28:08) Donald Trump presidency (31:51) Nasty recession (37:27) 10-year yields above 4% (42:15) S&P 500 drops 20% in a single day (44:52
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Dec 27, 2023 • 52min

Stansberry Investor Hour's 2023 Year in Review - Mailbag Edition

On this week's special mailbag episode of Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan Ferris and Corey McLaughlin are answering some of the most interesting questions they've received in recent weeks from subscribers. They tackle everything that has been on your mind – and a few things that you probably haven't even considered. Dan and Corey kick things off with questions about whether the green-energy movement and threats to eliminate fossil fuels will boost the price of oil... the broken housing market in the U.S. and what it means for homebuilders... nuclear energy's potential as a big source of power in America... and where uranium prices are headed next based on the supply-and-demand picture.  Next, Dan and Corey address a listener who hates that they let the cat out of the bag on the upside in farmland... and respond to another listener who wants them to talk more about specific stocks and less about the Federal Reserve. Plus, Dan and Corey answer questions about political correctness, the love of money being the root of all evil, how to profit from war, and why they prefer U.S. Treasurys to money-market funds.  Finally, Dan and Corey discuss the threat the high national debt level poses for the U.S., the development of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) as a geopolitical and economic power, and whether the U.S. losing its world reserve currency status would really be such a bad thing.
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Dec 19, 2023 • 1h 15min

How to Avoid Losing Your Mind in the Market with Hari P. Krishnan

Dan and Corey kick off the podcast by discussing 2023 as a whole. They talk about the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting a new all-time high recently and investors looking forward to the Federal Reserve cutting rates. Plus, they go over what they're bullish on for 2024 – including homebuilders, bitcoin, and energy, among others. Next, author and hedge-fund manager Hari Krishnan joins the podcast to discuss his toolbox of strategies for profiting after a market sell-off. He notes that there are times that are great for buying credit, while other times aren't so good. And the same principle applies to other areas of the market as well, like with volatility. The conversation then shifts to how the average investor could utilize Hari's strategies. He gives a few examples of what to do in different scenarios. And he especially emphasizes the importance of having a plan.  Further, Hari details how he assesses and categorizes risk. He describes why he looks at consistency across different asset classes and how this helps him find winning investments. Plus, Hari talks about the cycles of volatility, using equities as an example. He explains that risk taking drives the market upward, which leads to even more risk taking. It then becomes a vicious cycle that feeds on itself until it breaks. Finally, Dan asks Hari for his opinions on the S&P 500 Index's recent rally. Hari brings up the fact that there are currently high levels of complacency in the markets, and he argues that now is a great time for investors to think about hedges for their portfolios. He finishes by urging investors to look beyond the U.S. stock market and to broaden their opportunities with other asset classes. 
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Dec 12, 2023 • 1h 13min

Why Companies Are Afraid of Being Politically Correct with Whitney Tilson

Dan and Corey kick the show off by discussing the newest unemployment number and its implications for inflation, rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the stock market, and the future of the economy. They speculate that this unemployment rate could result in the Fed putting off rate cuts for even longer. Next, Whitney joins the conversation by discussing the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks and explains why he thinks smaller-cap, more value-oriented stocks will be driving the markets next. He also compares Tesla CEO Elon Musk's "rampant narcissism," "bro culture" at the company, and antisemitic tweets with exemplars like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. This leads to a discussion about how cultural differences affect businesses. Whitney brings up Anheuser-Busch's Bud Light ad campaign with a transgender influencer and Disney fighting Ron DeSantis' controversial bill in Florida. He shares why he thinks companies are "running pretty darn scared these days" after seeing both those iconic businesses suffer for taking political stances. Then, Whitney talks about his Top 10 list. He details why Berkshire Hathaway continues to be such an attractive opportunity today and why it's the perfect foundation for any portfolio. And he also emphasizes that we are no longer in a TINA world, or "there is no alternative." Finally, Whitney gives his opinion on what he thinks the Fed will do next in terms of interest rates and what the potential outcomes could be. You also won't want to miss his answer to Dan's final question, where he explains why it's crucial to limit the amount of "partisan and polarized" information you're consuming in traditional media, since it could be affecting your investing choices. 
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Dec 4, 2023 • 1h 7min

It's About to Be 2008 All Over Again

Dan and Corey start by remembering Charlie Munger, reviewing his career and legacy. Plus, they cover Elon Musk's recent remarks against Disney, the chances of X (formerly known as Twitter) going bankrupt, and Musk's efforts to bring free speech to the platform. (0:40) Next, Joel and Rob join the show to discuss the narrative around a soft landing, the rolling- recession "nonsense," and investors getting lulled into a false sense of confidence and believing everything is fine in the markets. Joel details the macroeconomic signals that are flashing globally – from China's failings dragging the world down to hyperinflation and recession in multiple Latin American countries. Joel explains why he and Rob have recently made a major change in their forward market outlook. (26:18) Rob adds that another reason for their bearishness is the current credit environment. Credit is the lifeblood of the American economy. But now, it's disappearing. And according to Rob, that will further hurt economic growth. Plus, Joel explains that this same setup happened at the beginning of the great financial crisis. (34:21) The conversation then shifts to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's devotion to lowering inflation to 2%, the reality of "structurally higher" inflation, and how high interest rates are leading to massive investing opportunities in near-term cash-flow companies. (38:37) Finally, Joel and Rob discuss the bond market and why they find it so attractive today... give their opinions on "terrifying" business development companies... and analyze the Fed's next moves in regard to unemployment. (46:18)

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