Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

Ray and Jim welcome Victor Chin, the official representative of Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party, to discuss Taiwan’s political landscape. They discuss how the KMT evolved from the flight with Chiang Kai-shek to Taiwan at end of the Chinese Civil War; through decades of unchallenged KMT rule over the island; its transition to a multiparty democracy; through to today as its primary opposition party to the ascendant Democratic People’s Party (DPP).They turn to Taiwan’s strategic geographic location, the building military threat from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the need for Taiwan to prepare its entire society for hostilities, and the crucial role the U.S. plays in ensuring its security.Victor explains why the KMT emphasizes its support for the “1992 Consensus” regarding “One China” and its ambiguous interpretation. He explains the difference in how the KMT looks at cross-strait relations, emphasizing dialogue over confrontation to manage tensions until democracy can be the force that unifies China.This conservative approach has earned the KMT the reputation of being Beijing’s preferred party, but Victor insists it remains Taiwan’s original and staunch bastion against communism.To close, Jim’s “There I was” story leads him and Ray into a discussion about the promises of authoritarianism versus democracy, which Churchill described as “the worst form of government except for everything else that’s been tried.”

Ray and Jim welcome AEI senior fellow Zack Cooper to the podcast to discuss China's increasingly aggressive behavior, and what the U.S. and its allies need to do in response. They focus on the question of how deterrence strategies need to evolve and adapt to the threats, whether they be nuclear, conventional military, or across the spectrum of malign gray-zone activities. They discuss the specific need to deter a military move against Taiwan.The discussion turns to the topic of extended nuclear deterrence, and whether a perceived U.S. inability or unwillingness to back up its security guarantees might lead its allies in the region to pursue their own nuclear weapons programs and lead to a breakdown of the non-proliferation regime.Zack also covers the recent U.S. policy of “integrated deterrence” and whether it can be effective, as well as recent discussion about an “Asian NATO” and whether it has a future.

Ray and Jim explore the implications of a Trump 2.0 administration for the Philippines with prominent Filipino columnist, podcaster and author of the 2020 book, The Indo-Pacific: Trump, China, and the New Struggle for Global Mastery. Richard Heydarian discusses the historical context of US-Philippines relations, the fluidity of ASEAN perspectives on China, and the importance of strategic autonomy for Southeast Asian nations.The dialogue compares the policies of U.S. administrations through recent decades, emphasizing the need for clarity and continuity in interpreting the 1951 US-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty and other security cooperation arrangements.The discussion drills down on the potential impact of Trump-imposed tariffs on Philippine economic interests, before turning to the broader geopolitical and economic landscape across Southeast Asia.Richard also gives his opinions on the effectiveness of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the potential for minilateralism to overcome its limitations.The hosts ask Richard to give advice about how Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr. can maximize his impact with President Trump, as well as his advice on what makes a successful podcast.Finally, Ray tells Jim about his recent experience at the Manila Dialogue on the South China Sea, where he created a buzz by describing China’s activities in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone as akin to a “maritime occupation” by a “hostile imperial power”.

Ray and Jim talk to author and geopolitical analyst James Crabtree about India’s policy of strategic ambiguity, its evolving but complicated relationship to the other “Quad” countries (the U.S., Australia and Japan), and its enigmatic relations with Russia and China. They also review India's ongoing military modernization efforts, as well as the challenges of doing business in India with its complex web of protectionism, regulations and infrastructure issues.Crabtree unpacks the rhetoric of India’s “Act East” policy of prioritizing Southeast Asia, as opposed to its evident interest in developing relations with wealthier Western economies. He also explains the implications of its inclusion in the “BRICS” grouping with Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa, together with a growing number of emerging Global South partners.

Jim and Ray welcome former Ambassador to Singapore Frank Lavin--now the Founder and CEO of Export Now, a firm that helps companies do business in China. Frank explains why he believes economic decoupling from China is unwise, and why he believes that China's 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization was not a mistake but instead forced Beijing to make important reforms that benefited U.S. businesses.Our guest emphasizes the importance of balancing geopolitical considerations with business decisions, and advocates for a positive U.S. trade policy of collaboration with like-minded nations rather than over-focusing on adversarial relationships with countries like China.The discussion also rolls around to the evolution of U.S. trade policy, the potential implications of increased tariffs under Donald Trump, and the challenges posed by China's rise. It explores the history of trade agreements, the current political climate surrounding free trade, and the impact of China's economic strategies on global markets.Frank emphasizes the importance of openness and collaboration in trade, while also addressing the need for defensive measures against unfair practices. He concludes with a call for proactive leadership in U.S. trade relations and the potential for future agreements.

Ray and Jim welcome Chinese espionage expert Matt Brazil to discuss the unprecedented scale of Chinese intelligence operations, emphasizing the role of the Ministry of State Security (MSS). He highlights the implications of China's sophisticated program of both domestic and transnational spying and repression of dissent; the involvement of some Chinese academics and students in espionage activities; and the growing threat of cyber hacking as a tool for state-sponsored intelligence.Matt also explains how the United Front Work Department conducts foreign influence operations, and offers insights into how organizations can mitigate risks when hiring individuals from China.The conversation concludes with a discussion on why China's wide-ranging program targets local government officials and the broader implications of these actions.Ray and Jim then discuss how China's whole-of-civilization approach to espionage can increase the scrutiny--including discrimination, profiling and racism--that ordinary ethnic Chinese academics, students and businesspeople face in western countries.Finally, Ray relates an amusing occasion on which he himself was called a "cyber hacker" while serving in southeast Asia.

Ray and Jim welcome Stanford University fellow and author Oriana Skylar Mastro to discuss her recent book, "Upstart: How China Became a Great Power". Oriana emphasizes that outsiders often misunderstand the sources of China's strength. She says that while Beijing sometimes emulates Western strategies, it also frequently exploits their weaknesses--for example, engaging strongly with certain developing countries that the U.S. largely ignores.She further asserts that China engages in entrepreneurial new strategies, such as training developing countries' police forces or building a vast maritime militia force. Many of these approaches are made possible by China's authoritarian political system in ways that democracies cannot easily emulate and probably shouldn't try, though they need to find other ways to contest them using their own strengths.Oriana examines the diplomatic and military options regarding China's growing threat to Taiwan and the South China Sea, emphasizing the need for less bluster but more strength--Theodore Roosevelt's "speak softly and carry a big stick" approach. Regarding the South China Sea, she discusses her recent New York Times article in which she advocated for "calling China's bluff".Finally, in this episode's edition of "There I was...", Jim describes working with a U.S. company involved in exploring Indonesia's North Natuna Sea, where there is a dispute with China's vast maritime claims. He observes how a country's own perception of its national interests is often very different from what outsiders believe it should be.

Jim and Ray welcome Charlie Edel, Australia Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, about the significance of AUKUS--a trilateral security pact between Australia, the UK and the US--focusing on its implications for defense and technology collaboration in the Indo-Pacific region. Their discussion covers the origins of AUKUS, its strategic importance, the controversies around "Pillar One" (nuclear submarine production), and the challenges and potential for expanding partnerships beyond the three countries in "Pillar Two" (advanced technology cooperation). The conversation then moves on to the need for building enhanced deterrence capabilities to meet the growing China threat, and the evolving nature of defense technology collaboration.

Ray and Jim welcome retired Lieutenant General Chun In-bum of the South Korean Army to discuss North Korea's increasing role in supplying arms to the Russian war machine. General Chun highlights the long history of North Korea’s illicit arms industry, and how its ambitions pose not just regional but global challenges. General Chun emphasizes the need for a nuanced understanding of North Korea's changing military ambitions in the context of its ever-shifting relationships with China and Russia. He emphasizes that U.S. policy toward North Korea has often been flawed by misguided hopes that the Hermit Kingdom might respond positively to offers of engagement or inducements.The discussion turns to the challenge that North Korea’s nuclear program poses to a strained global non-proliferation regime, and the real potential for South Korea and other countries under threat to break out and pursue their own nuclear capabilities if their faith in U.S. extended deterrence fails.General Chun contemplates the question of an “Asian NATO”, appreciates the long history of American service in South Korea, and makes an impassioned plea to Americans to hold to their country’s historic ideals.In our “There I was…” segment, Ray tells an amazing-but-true story of how his Air Force unit once encountered the toughness of South Korean Special Forces.

Union College Professor Mark Dallas--also a senior advisor to the U.S. Department of Commerce--joins Jim and Ray to delve into how the recently accelerating movement of global supply chains away from China is affecting consumers, employment and national security, both in the U.S. and around the world. Professor Dallas explains the importance and complexity of global supply chains, and explores how COVID-19 brought their vulnerabilities into the public awareness. He unpacks how 'friend-shoring' has emerged as a western strategy to reduce supply-chain reliance on potential adversaries by sourcing goods and labor through more friendly countries.One reason China's manufacturing capabilities became so dominant in global supply chains was its ability to geographically cluster manufacturing sites closely together for maximum efficiency.Professor Dallas explains that while authoritarian policies, geopolitical shocks and cybersecurity threats pose serious challenges to global supply chain integrity, decoupling supply chains away from China is far more complicated than it sounds.