Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

Paul Everingham joins Ray and Jim to explain that liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand in Asia is expected to nearly double by 2050. The initial growth will be driven by North Asia (especially China), with South Asia and Southeast Asia becoming the main growth centers after 2035. This surge is tied to Asia’s rapid economic development, growing energy needs, and the region’s transition from coal.Asia is projected to account for 50% of global economic growth and a growing share of global emissions. Addressing energy needs and emissions in Asia is crucial for global climate goals and humanitarian progress, as many Asian countries still rely heavily on coal and lack access to clean energy and modern amenities.Paul describes LNG as more than just a bridge to renewables—it’s vital for economic and national security, and asserts that LNG is cleaner than coal and oil and provides reliable "baseload" and "peaking" power, which renewables like wind and solar currently can’t match due to their intermittency and storage limitations.The Biden administration’s pause on US LNG export facilities was discussed, with Paul arguing that such moves are more political than scientific. He stresses that immediate transitions from coal to renewables aren’t feasible in Asia due to infrastructure and storage constraints, and that gas is essential for meeting Paris climate commitments.Despite a slowing economy and population decline, China’s energy demand is rising as it seeks to reduce new coal plant construction and diversify gas imports away from reliance on Russia. China is investing in both renewables and LNG to ensure energy security.The conversation highlights that global energy demand is rising, not just shifting. Coal use is at record highs, and the US is facing new surges in energy demand due to AI and data centers. Paul advocates for an "all of the above" approach, including nuclear, gas, and renewables, to meet growing needs.Paul says LNG offers more flexible supply options than pipeline gas, reducing dependency on single suppliers. However, building out LNG infrastructure is capital-intensive and complex. The US, Qatar, and Australia are the dominant LNG exporters, but the US is expected to become the leading supplier by 2040, especially as Asian demand grows.Qatar is a major player due to its vast gas reserves and strategic, conservative development. Indonesia and Malaysia were early LNG exporters, but their fields are now in decline. The US, with its massive shale gas reserves, is poised to shape global markets, especially as new fields come online.The vulnerability of LNG supply lines to blockades (e.g., Taiwan) and the strategic importance of the South China Sea’s energy resources were discussed. China’s control over disputed areas impacts the ability of countries like the Philippines and Vietnam to develop their own gas fields.Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast; or on LinkedIn or BlueSky.Follow Ray Powell on X (@GordianKnotRay) or on LinkedIn.Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn.This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

In an episode originally released by The German Marshall Fund's China Global Podcast with Bonnie Glaser, managing director of GMF’s Indo-Pacific program, co-host Ray Powell was interviewed about recent developments in the Yellow Sea and China’s broader gray zone tactics in the maritime realm.---This episode of the China Global podcast discusses evolving disputes between China and South Korea, specifically regarding their unresolved maritime boundary in the Yellow Sea. There is a long history of fishing disputes between the two countries in the Provisional Measures Zone (or PMZ) of the Yellow Sea, which is where their exclusive economic zones overlap. Although China and South Korea have engaged in negotiations over the years, they have yet to come to an agreement on their boundaries in the Yellow Sea.Taking advantage of the persisting disagreement on delimitation of maritime borders, China has employed gray zone tactics in the Yellow Sea to expand its territorial presence in the region. In the most recent dispute, China installed a new steel structure in the PMZ, causing a maritime standoff between Chinese and Korean coast guards.To discuss recent developments in the Yellow Sea and China’s broader gray zone tactics in the maritime realm, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Ray Powell, the Director of SeaLight, a maritime transparency project at Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation. Ray is also the co-host of the Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific podcast, and a 35-year veteran of the US Air Force.

In this compelling episode of "Why Should We Care about the Indo-Pacific," hosts Ray Powell and James Carouso welcome Joe Hockey, former Australian Treasurer and Ambassador to the United States. Hockey, who now heads Bondi Partners, offers unique insights into U.S.-Australia relations during both Trump administrations.Episode Highlights:Hockey shares his firsthand experience of "Trumpageddon" during the transition from Obama to Trump's first administration, describing it as a "political tsunami" that hit Washington DC. He contrasts Trump 1.0's disorganization with Trump 2.0's more predictable but aggressive "political blitzkrieg" approach.The conversation explores recent challenges in the alliance, including new tariffs on Australian steel and aluminum under Trump's second term. Hockey explains how Australia previously secured exemptions during Trump's first term by emphasizing their status as America's closest ally according to Republican voters and highlighting their trade deficit with the U.S.When discussing concerns about the reliability of the U.S. alliance, Hockey dismisses what he calls "alarmist" views, emphasizing the deep integration between the two nations' military and intelligence communities. He pointedly asks, "What is Plan B?" when considering alternatives to the U.S. alliance, especially in light of recent Chinese naval exercises near Australia.The discussion also covers Australia's upcoming May 2025 election, defense spending needs, AUKUS submarine acquisition challenges, and the complex relationship with China. Hockey advocates for increasing Australia's defense spending to around 3% of GDP while encouraging more private sector involvement in defense infrastructure.Hockey concludes by sharing the touching origin story of his "100 Years of Mateship" initiative, which commemorated the centennial of U.S. and Australian troops fighting side by side at the Battle of Hamel in World War I – the beginning of an unbroken alliance that continues to this day.Don't miss this insightful conversation about one of America's most crucial alliances in an increasingly complex Indo-Pacific region.Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast; or on LinkedIn or BlueSky at our show title, Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?Follow Ray Powell on X (@GordianKnotRay) or on LinkedIn.Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn.Our podcast is produced by Ian Ellis-Jones and IEJ Media (on X @ianellisjones or LinkedIn).This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Mark Lambert, the recently retired head of the State Department’s China House, joins Jim and Ray to share his insights into the impacts of America’s radical new tariff policy from his extensive diplomatic career in Asia, including postings in China, Vietnam, Thailand, and Japan.Lambert, having just returned from a trip to Beijing, provides a unique perspective on how Chinese officials and experts are reacting to the escalating trade tensions between the two countries.His insights include:- President Xi Jinping's recent diplomatic tour of Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia indicates China's strategic move to contest U.S. influence in countries most affected by the tariffs- The challenges in U.S.-China negotiations, particularly the disconnect in diplomatic approaches between President Trump's preference for direct leader-to-leader negotiations versus China's more conservative impulses- Chinese confusion about what specifically the U.S. wants in trade negotiations - The importance of firmly opposing China’s well-known harmful trade practices (technology theft, subsidized overcapacity) while not decoupling the entire U.S.-China economic relationship- China's potential retaliatory measures, including restricting rare earth metals exports and reconsidering U.S. Treasury bond holdings- The strategic value of U.S. alliances in the Indo-Pacific and concerns about how current trade policies might affect these relationships- The fragility yet resilience of China's economic and political system, including its cultural capacity for "eating bitterness" during difficult times- Lambert's surprising ease of travel to China as a private citizen, suggesting China's desire to encourage more American visitors despite tensionsFollow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast; or on LinkedIn or BlueSky at our show title, Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?Follow Ray Powell on X (@GordianKnotRay) or on LinkedIn.Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn.Our podcast is produced by Ian Ellis-Jones and IEJ Media (on X @ianellisjones or LinkedIn).This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Ray Powell, Director of the Sea Light Initiative at Stanford University, dives deep into the South China Sea's complexities, unpacking China's maritime gray-zone activities. He highlights the increasing tensions between China and the Philippines following near-collisions and discusses the implications of the Philippines' military modernization. Powell also examines the shifting dynamics of U.S. commitments in the region, exploring why the Philippines is treated differently compared to other allies. The conversation sheds light on the broader geopolitical landscape and challenges in the Indo-Pacific.

Founder and CEO of APAC Advisors Steve Okun joins Jim and Ray to talk about the suddenly raging trade war between the U.S. and China and what kind of impact it may have on the global trading system.Steve observes that international investment is largely frozen due to the uncertainty about what the U.S. goals are, which tariffs are temporary versus permanent, and whether the U.S. and China can come to a negotiated settlement.Steve also explains that while China has certainly exploited its advantage in manufacturing, the U.S. has long enjoyed its own advantage in the services sectors–such as entertainment, finance, health, and tourism. He says these U.S. industries may suffer under a more restrictive trade environment.The discussion also turns to international organizations and groupings like the World Trade Organization, Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and whether they are losing influence in the global system as the big powers go their own way. Steve then speculates how U.S-China trade talks may proceed - and what cards Donald Trump and Xi Jinping believe they still have to play. Regardless, he expects continued volatility to continue as a new normal moving forward.Follow Steve Okun on his very popular LinkedIn profile, or at his consultancy, APAC Advisors.Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast; or on LinkedIn or BlueSky at our show title, Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?Follow Ray Powell on X (@GordianKnotRay) or on LinkedIn.Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn.Our podcast is produced by Ian Ellis-Jones and IEJ Media (on X @ianellisjones or LinkedIn).This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Author and Chatham House Associate Fellow Bill Hayton joins the podcast to explain how Vietnam has embarked on its own campaign to build artificial islands in the South China Sea, a decade after China pursued its own campaign.While Vietnam’s new artificial island bases will alter the South China Sea balance of power, China’s response has been muted, especially compared to its aggressive opposition to nearly every minor move the Philippines makes.Bill also discusses Vietnam’s concerns over the large-scale damming of the Mekong River. He explains how the river delta is crucial to Vietnam's agriculture and economy, but that upstream damming in China, Laos and other countries has caused substantial disruption.Turning to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Bill unpacks why it has been ineffective in addressing external and transnational threats, such as Chinese aggression in the South China Sea and the Mekong River.Bill also discusses the potential of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs to significantly disrupt Vietnam’s economy, as well as Vietnam’s relations with China under its new leader, To Lam.Follow Bill Hayton on X, @bill_hayton, and check out his well-regarded books on Vietnam, China, and the South China Sea on his website, billhayton.com.Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast; or on LinkedIn or BlueSky at our show title, Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?Follow Ray Powell on X (@GordianKnotRay) or on LinkedIn.Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn.Our podcast is produced by Ian Ellis-Jones and IEJ Media (on X @ianellisjones or LinkedIn).This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

In our second post-“Liberation Day” episode we are joined by John Goyer, Executive Director for Southeast Asia for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, to discuss the impact of America’s now-suspended tariff increases on Southeast Asian countries and on the U.S.John observes that American consumers are likely to experience significant price increases if these tariffs go into effect, since the reason U.S. businesses import from Southeast Asia is because it can get goods less expensively than if they are made in the United States. Meanwhile, both stock and bond markets have reacted very dramatically to each new announcement, and some economists are warning that the U.S. could tip into a recession if they go into full effect.Southeast Asian countries are already navigating a complicated relationship with China, whose economy has been relying on exports. Beijing’s fraught trade relationship with the U.S. has left it with huge surpluses of goods, many of which have been dumped into neighboring countries. China has also been using Southeast Asia as a place to trans-ship goods to avoid U.S. tariffs.Vietnam, whose tariffs were announced at the rate of 46 percent, actually has fairly low tariffs on U.S. goods, so will need to find other ways to satisfy the Trump Administration. This may include reducing restrictive policies and regulations or purchasing more U.S. goods.While some Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries have suggested a unified response, ASEAN has not been effective in moving quickly as a bloc. As a result, each country is likely to seek its own deal.On the question of who the winners might be in a trade war, John observes that it’s not easy to move manufacturing. These are complex, expensive decisions, and companies will be deliberate and measured in their responses. Learn more about John Goyer at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, or follow him on LinkedIn.Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast; or on LinkedIn or BlueSky at our show title, Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?Follow Ray Powell on X (@GordianKnotRay) or on LinkedIn. Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn.Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power. Follow IEJ Media on X (@iejmedia), and follow our producer Ian Ellis-Jones on X (@ianellisjones) or on LinkedIn. This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Jim and Ray welcome Chris Johnstone, a Japan expert and former CIA, National Security Council, and Pentagon official, to discuss the implications of the recently announced U.S. tariffs on Japan’s economy, politics, trade policies, and alliance with America.Chris explains Japan's crucial role as a node in America’s Indo-Pacific alliance structure, but also, since the 2017 U.S. withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Japan has been assuming a greater leadership role in the region.U.S. tariffs will likely significantly impact Japan's GDP growth as well as its ability to finance the U.S.-produced weapons needed to defend itself against a rapidly growing Chinese military threat. Japan, like many other Indo-Pacific countries, will likely seek to strengthen its own domestic industries and diversify its trading relationships to reduce its reliance on the U.S. market and sources for high-end military equipment.Japan’s government is facing upcoming elections in which it will need to be seen as effective in countering the U.S. tariffs. The government will not want to be seen as weak or submissive to the U.S. in its responses while still protecting its overall relationship with Washington.Chris examines the pros and cons of various approaches Japan may take in response to reciprocal tariffs, as well as the larger question of how America’s abrupt policy changes and dismissal of previous trade agreements undermines the trust of its most important East Asian ally.Learn more about Chris Johnstone at the Asia Group or follow him on LinkedIn.Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, or on LinkedIn or BlueSky under our show title, "Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?"Follow Ray Powell on X (@GordianKnotRay) or on LinkedIn. Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn.Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media and Ian Ellis-Jones, follow him on X (@ianellisjones) or LinkedIn. This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Two of India’s most respected foreign policy, national security and international relations experts, former Ambassador Alok Prasad and Mr. Vaman Desai, join Jim and Ray to explore the evolving bilateral relationship between the U.S. and India, which is increasingly seen as one of the globe’s defining partnership for the 21st century. They reflect on the recent visit to Washington by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.Our guests reflected that even with India bracing for the prospect of Donald Trump’s threatened tariffs–especially given India’s large trade surplus with the U.S.–the two countries agreed to attempt to more than double bilateral trade by 2030 under the “Mission 500” target.India has emerged as a hub for “global capability centers”, a magnet for foreign countries. India is also benefiting from companies looking for new manufacturing locations as China becomes less competitive, but it will need to overcome a reputation for being a hard place to do business.Meanwhile, India is expected to increase its imports of American energy and defense articles–both of which would mark shifts from Russian suppliers.Technological cooperation is another key area of focus, especially in emerging tech such as autonomous systems.India and China have stabilized their long-running border tensions, but a host of other concerns remain, including over China’s damming of rivers running into northern India.India’s role in global governance is multifaceted, as New Delhi continues to balance its relationships with international organizations as diverse as BRICS and the Quad.Learn more about Ambassador Alok Prasad, Mr. Vaman Dasai and the rest of BowerGroupAsia’s India team.Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast; or on LinkedIn or BlueSky at our show title, Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?Follow Ray Powell on X (@GordianKnotRay) or on LinkedIn.Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn.Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power. Follow IEJ Media on X (@iejmedia), and follow our producer Ian Ellis-Jones on X (@ianellisjones) or on LinkedIn.This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.