Lowy Institute

Tensions between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea have reached their highest level in more than a decade. The risk of escalation, even conflict, between the two countries could test the credibility of the Philippines’ alliance with the United States. In the first of a series focused on the South China Sea tensions, Susannah Patton, Director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Lowy Institute, discusses the Philippines’ strategy with Jonathan Malaya, Assistant Director-General of the National Security Council of the Philippines and the spokesperson for the West Philippine Sea Taskforce, the key body that coordinates Philippine agencies’ policy on the South China Sea.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Since the Albanese government was elected, Australia has focused on stabilising relations with China. But there are limits to Australia’s ability to successfully pursue stabilisation if there remains a spectre of confrontation between its largest trading partner and its key security guarantor, the United States.  Do either the US or China genuinely want to stabilise bi-lateral ties? And if they do, what is standing in the way? One reason is Taiwan, and Beijing’s campaign of encirclement of the island, a slow-motion strategy which, while it does not attract the same headlines as a possible invasion, can nevertheless achieve the same ends.  Richard McGregor, Senior Fellow for East Asia at the Lowy Institute, discusses US-China competition, Taiwan, and more with Washington-based China scholars, Jude Blanchette and Dan Blumenthal. Jude Blanchette is the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Dan Blumenthal is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who served as the senior director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia at the Pentagon in the George W. Bush administration.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On Tuesday 25 June 2024 we held an event at the National Press Club for the launch of a new Lowy Institute Analysis paper that makes the strategic case for AUKUS, written by one of the government’s most knowledgeable and experienced defence thinkers. Luke Gosling argued that nuclear-powered submarines will be central to Australia’s ability to defeat threats of attack, counter a naval blockade, and support the regional balance of power. Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles launched the paper, after which Luke Gosling made his case for nuclear-powered submarines, before being joined on stage by Lowy Institute Executive Director Dr Michael Fullilove AM for questions, including from the audience.‍Luke Gosling OAM MP has served as the Member for Solomon since 2016. He served in the Australian Army for 13 years in the Parachute Infantry, Commandos, and Defence Cooperation Programs. He deployed to Papua New Guinea, Rifle Company Butterworth, Malaysia, and Timor-Leste, as well as working in Afghanistan.‍Richard Marles MP is the Deputy Prime Minister of Australia, Minister for Defence, and the Federal Member for Corio. Richard was first elected to the House of Representatives in 2007. Refreshments and Hot canapés will be provided.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Papua New Guinea is a nation undergoing rapid digital transformation. With increased connectivity, PNG faces the dual challenge of leveraging digital growth for development while protecting its young netizens.   Initiatives such as ChildFund’s 1-Tok Helpline, which has received more than 70,000 calls since its establishment in 2015, provide a window into the online threats facing the country’s young people — from cyberbullying and exploitation to technology-facilitated gender-based violence.  This episode of the Lowy Institute’s Pacific Change Makers dives deep into the digital realm, taking a look at a rapidly emerging social issue with profound implications for Papua New Guinea’s social cohesion and national security.  In this episode, Mihai Sora, Project Director of the Aus-PNG Network, interviews Kinime Daniel, ChildFund Helpline Manager for 1-Tok Counselling Helpim Line. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On Friday 14 June 2024 we had our inaugural lecture in honour of Allan Gyngell, the first Executive Director of the Lowy Institute and one of Australia’s most respected foreign policy thinkers. Allan’s friend and contemporary, Ric Smith, delivered the Lecture on the subject of statecraft — a notion dear to Allan, and one that reaches beyond routine foreign policy and diplomacy and implies vision, a sense of history, and a strategic appreciation of a nation’s place in the world.Ric Smith AO joined the Department of External Affairs in 1969. He served in Australia’s diplomatic missions in India, Israel, the Philippines and Hawaii and then as Ambassador to China and Mongolia (1996–2000) and later Indonesia (2001–2002). He was Secretary of the Department of Defence from 2002 to 2006. From 2009 to 2013, he was Australia’s Special Envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan. He was appointed as an Officer of the Order of Australia in 1998, and awarded a Public Service Medal in 2002 for his service in response to the Bali bombing. The Allan Gyngell Lecture honours Allan Gyngell AO (1947–2023), the first Executive Director of the Lowy Institute (2003–09). Allan was the Director-General of the Office of National Assessments, Australia’s peak intelligence analysis agency, from 2009 to 2013. He was later the National President of the Australian Institute of International Affairs and an honorary professor in the ANU’s College of Asia and the Pacific. Allan joined the Department of External Affairs in 1969, with postings in Rangoon, Singapore and Washington, DC. He headed the international division in the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet and served as international adviser to Prime Minister Paul Keating. ‍See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Angus Deaton, the 2015 Nobel Prize-winning economist, has dedicated four decades to studying poverty, inequality, health, wellbeing, and economic development. Recently, he strongly criticised his own profession, arguing that economists have overlooked the power dynamics inherent in capitalism. In this wide-ranging episode of Development Futures, Alexandre Dayant, the Deputy Director of the Lowy Institute’s Indo-Pacific Development Centre, talks with Deaton about the factors behind his shift in thinking and discusses his evolving perspectives on free trade, immigration's impact on American workers, and the role of foreign aid, among other topics.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of The Director's Chair, the Lowy Institute's Executive Director Michael Fullilove is joined by The New York Times columnist Bret Stephens. They discuss the forthcoming US election and why he thinks Donald Trump is likely to return to the White House. They also talk about the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, AUKUS, cancel culture, and why he changed his mind about the risks of climate change. The Director’s Chair is a podcast by the Lowy Institute: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/ X:@LowyInstitute@mfullilove Host: Michael Fullilove Producers: Darcy Milne and Andrew Griffits Research: David VallanceSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Myanmar’s civil war has entered a crucial phase. While the junta remains firmly ensconced in the centre, a series of stunning victories by its opponents has severely diminished the reach of the military regime into the borderlands. A constellation of anti-junta forces has started delivering public services in “liberated areas” where they are in effect governing millions of people.  On Monday 20 May 2024, we launched the Lowy Institute Analysis paper, Outrage is not a policy: Coming to terms with Myanmar’s fragmented state, by Dr Morten Pedersen. The paper calls for international assistance for “parallel state-building”, focused on strengthening the capabilities of a wide range of emerging political authorities and community-based organisations to carry out traditional state functions.  This launch event was moderated by Hervé Lemahieu, Director of Research at the Lowy Institute. Dr Morten B. Pedersen is Senior Lecturer in International Politics at the University of New South Wales Canberra (Australian Defence Force Academy) and former senior analyst for the International Crisis Group in Myanmar.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the new episode of The Director’s Chair, the Lowy Institute’s Executive Director Michael Fullilove is joined by US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell. They discuss Kurt Campbell’s new role in the State Department, American policy towards China, the relationship between Moscow and Beijing, Xi Jinping’s recent visit to France, Dr Campbell’s aims for the AUKUS pact, and the things that make him optimistic when he looks at the world today. The Director’s Chair is a podcast by the Lowy Institute: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/ Twitter:@LowyInstitute@mfullilove@DeputySecState  Host: Michael Fullilove Producers: Josh Goding and Andrew Griffits Research: David VallanceSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

China is facing many economic problems, at home and abroad. The two are connected. Weak demand at home has contributed to a sharp rise in Chinese manufacturing exports, especially in green technologies such as electric vehicles. Surging Chinese exports have in turn prompted a backlash from the United States, Europe, and others who accuse China of exporting overcapacity and damaging their own green industrial ambitions. In this episode, Roland Rajah, Director of the Indo-Pacific Development Centre (IPDC), talks with Dr Bert Hofman, one of the leading international experts on China’s economy and a widely respected development economist and practitioner. They discuss China’s development model, the idea of “Peak China”, whether China is exporting overcapacity, what this all means for developing countries, and Bert’s ideas for what the world should be doing in response. Dr Hofman is currently an adjunct professor at the East Asian Institute at the National University of Singapore and before that was with the World Bank for almost three decades, most recently as director of the World Bank’s country office in China.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.