The Bitcoin Layer

In this episode, Nik sits down with Unchained co-founders Dhruv Bansal and Joe Kelly to unpack why Bitcoin security demands a unique approach—far different from traditional financial services. They discuss why bitcoin's structure requires holders to prioritize collaborative custody over standard methods. Dhruv and Joe also provide technical insights behind multi-signature (multi-sig) security, key management, and inheritance planning. The logistical background behind managing your bitcoin illustrates how this asset is reshaping our understanding of security and protection in the world of personal finance. The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Unchained, the leader in Bitcoin financial services. Unchained empowers you to take full control of your Bitcoin with a collaborative multisig vault, where you hold two of three keys, and benefit from a Bitcoin security partner. Purchase Bitcoin directly into your cold storage vault and eliminate exchange risks with Unchained's Trading Desk. Unchained also offers the best IRA product in the industry, allowing you to easily roll over old 401(k)s or IRAs into Bitcoin while keeping control of your keys. Don’t pay more taxes than you have to. Talk to us today. Visit https://thebitcoinlayer.com/unchained and use code TBL for $100 off when you create an account. Try Stamp Seed, a DIY kit that enables you to hammer your seed words into a durable plate of titanium using professional stamping tools. Take 15% off with code TBL. Get your Stamp Seed today! https://www.stampseed.com/shop/titanium-seed-phrase-storage-kits.html?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube. Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform. Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch Block Height 869215 Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball #TheBitcoinLayer #NikBhatia #BitcoinSecurity #UnchainedCapital #CollaborativeCustody #DhruvBansal #JoeKelly #MultiSig #KeyManagement #BitcoinCustody #FinancialSecurity #BitcoinOwnership #SelfCustody #InheritancePlanning #BitcoinProtection #PersonalFinance #DigitalAssets #BitcoinEducation #BitcoinPodcast #KeyProtection #BitcoinStorage #BitcoinCommunity #AssetSecurity #FinancialIndependence #BitcoinPlanning #FutureOfFinance #DigitalWealth #BitcoinMindset #SecureYourBitcoin #FinancialInnovation #LongTermSecurity #BitcoinResponsibility #BitcoinManagement #WealthProtection #BitcoinSafety #BitcoinResilience #Bloomberg #Analysis #Charts #Tradingview #InvestmentStrategy #MarketWatch #StockMarket #PassiveInvesting #IndexFunds #FinancialMarkets #MarketWatch #FreeMarket #FreeMarkets #Markets #USTreasury #TreasuryBills #BalanceSheet #FED #Debt #Inflation #Statistic #Rates #Interest #Asset #Bitcoin #Dollar #Sats #BTC #Gold #Market #Trading #Currency #Crypto #Analysis #Investment #News #Finance #Education #Blockchain #Mining #BitcoinMining #macro The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on Soundwise

In this episode, Nik Bhatia and James from Checkonchain dive deep into Bitcoin's current market landscape, breaking down the driving forces behind Bitcoin's recent volatility. This in-depth analysis covers the role of options trading, the impact of ETF inflows, and the latest on-chain data insights. As speculators return to the market and "hodlers" hold steady, Nik and James discuss how the tug-of-war between short-term traders and long-term investors shapes Bitcoin's price movements. With the upcoming election adding a layer of uncertainty, Nik and James also talk about trading dynamics, discuss market mechanics, and explain why understanding these dynamics is key for bitcoiners today. Follow Checkmate's work: https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/ The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Unchained, the leader in Bitcoin financial services. Unchained empowers you to take full control of your Bitcoin with a collaborative multisig vault, where you hold two of three keys, and benefit from a Bitcoin security partner. Purchase Bitcoin directly into your cold storage vault and eliminate exchange risks with Unchained's Trading Desk. Unchained also offers the best IRA product in the industry, allowing you to easily roll over old 401(k)s or IRAs into Bitcoin while keeping control of your keys. Don’t pay more taxes than you have to. Talk to us today. Visit https://thebitcoinlayer.com/unchained and use code TBL for $100 off when you create an account. Try Stamp Seed, a DIY kit that enables you to hammer your seed words into a durable plate of titanium using professional stamping tools. Take 15% off with code TBL. Get your Stamp Seed today! https://www.stampseed.com/shop/titanium-seed-phrase-storage-kits.html?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Efani delivers premium mobile service with unparalleled protection against SIM swaps and privacy invasions. Use code TBL at checkout for $99 off the Efani SAFE Plan. https://www.efani.com/tbl?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube. Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform. Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch Block Height 869038 Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball #TheBitcoinLayer #NikBhatia #Bitcoin #OnChainMetrics #BitcoinVolatility #BitcoinMarket #BitcoinInsights #OptionsTrading #BitcoinETF #Hodlers #BitcoinInvesting #Bitcoiners #MarketDynamics #BitcoinTrends #BTCPrice #OnChainData #Election2024 #BitcoinAndElections #PoliticalImpact #LongTermHodlers #SpeculationVsInvestment #BTC #MacroEconomics #PoliticalUncertainty #ElectionImpact #BitcoinAndPolitics #Bloomberg #Analysis #Charts #Tradingview #InvestmentStrategy #MarketWatch #StockMarket #PassiveInvesting #IndexFunds #FinancialMarkets #MarketWatch #FreeMarket #FreeMarkets #Markets #USTreasury #TreasuryBills #BalanceSheet #FED #Debt #Inflation #Statistic #Rates #Interest #Asset #Bitcoin #Dollar #Sats #BTC #Gold #Market #Trading #Currency #Crypto #Analysis #Investment #News #Finance #Education #Blockchain #Mining #BitcoinMining #macro The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on Soundwise

In this episode, Nik examines the powerful forces pushing Bitcoin toward new highs, revealing how government spending sets off new money creation that flows directly into assets. Starting with a breakdown of Bitcoin’s recent breakout and technical setup, he then explores the global backdrop, including China’s $1 trillion stimulus and shifts in U.S. fiscal policy. Using a balance sheet approach, Nik illustrates how Treasury issuance, bank purchases, and government payments lead to new deposits and net worth expansion — a process fueling assets without Fed involvement. This analysis reveals why Bitcoin, as a finite asset, stands to benefit in a world of accelerating government-driven liquidity. The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Unchained, the leader in Bitcoin financial services. Unchained empowers you to take full control of your Bitcoin with a collaborative multisig vault, where you hold two of three keys, and benefit from a Bitcoin security partner. Purchase Bitcoin directly into your cold storage vault and eliminate exchange risks with Unchained's Trading Desk. Unchained also offers the best IRA product in the industry, allowing you to easily roll over old 401(k)s or IRAs into Bitcoin while keeping control of your keys. Don’t pay more taxes than you have to. Talk to us today. Visit https://thebitcoinlayer.com/unchained and use code TBL for $100 off when you create an account. Try Stamp Seed, a DIY kit that enables you to hammer your seed words into a durable plate of titanium using professional stamping tools. Take 15% off with code TBL. Get your Stamp Seed today! https://www.stampseed.com/shop/titanium-seed-phrase-storage-kits.html?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube. Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform. Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch Block Height 868004 Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball #TheBitcoinLayer #NikBhatia #BitcoinATH #BitcoinNewHighs #BitcoinBullRun #BTCATH #BitcoinPrice #BitcoinBreakout #DigitalGold #BTCtoTheMoon #BitcoinMarket #BitcoinPriceAction #Bitcoin2024 #GovernmentSpending #MoneyCreation #FiscalPolicy #ChinaStimulus #USDebt #TreasuryIssuance #BankBalanceSheet #AssetInflation #FiniteAssets #Liquidity #Investing #Bloomberg #Analysis #Charts #Tradingview #InvestmentStrategy #MarketWatch #StockMarket #PassiveInvesting #IndexFunds #FinancialMarkets #MarketWatch #FreeMarket #FreeMarkets #Markets #USTreasury #TreasuryBills #BalanceSheet #FED #Debt #Inflation #Statistic #Rates #Interest #Asset #Bitcoin #Dollar #Sats #BTC #Market #Currency #Analysis #Investment #News #Finance #Education #Blockchain #Mining #BitcoinMining #macro The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on Soundwise

In this video, Nik shares his journey from a confused college student to a professional analyst, revealing how discovering Zero Hedge in 2010 transformed his approach to financial information. As a money market practitioner, Nik discusses his use of primary sources with tools like Macrobond as his foundation, while also relying on trusted outlets like The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, and Zero Hedge for stories. Through the methods and insights that shape his research at The Bitcoin Layer, Nik aims to helps viewers and readers cut through mainstream narratives to find real market signals. The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Unchained, the leader in Bitcoin financial services. Unchained empowers you to take full control of your Bitcoin with a collaborative multisig vault, where you hold two of three keys, and benefit from a Bitcoin security partner. Purchase Bitcoin directly into your cold storage vault and eliminate exchange risks with Unchained's Trading Desk. Unchained also offers the best IRA product in the industry, allowing you to easily roll over old 401(k)s or IRAs into Bitcoin while keeping control of your keys. Don’t pay more taxes than you have to. Talk to us today. Visit https://thebitcoinlayer.com/unchained and use code TBL for $100 off when you create an account. Efani delivers premium mobile service with unparalleled protection against SIM swaps and privacy invasions. Use code TBL at checkout for $99 off the Efani SAFE Plan. https://www.efani.com/tbl?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Try Stamp Seed, a DIY kit that enables you to hammer your seed words into a durable plate of titanium using professional stamping tools. Take 15% off with code TBL. Get your Stamp Seed today! https://www.stampseed.com/shop/titanium-seed-phrase-storage-kits.html?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube. Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform. Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch Block Height 867841 Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball #TheBitcoinLayer #NikBhatia #FinancialJourney #MarketAnalysis #MoneyMarket #InvestmentResearch #ZeroHedge #FinancialNews #BitcoinLayer #EconomicInsights #MarketSignals #ProfessionalAnalyst #Macrobond #FinancialInformation #WallStreetJournal #InvestmentStrategy #AlternativeMedia #FinanceEducation #CutThroughTheNoise #Bloomberg #Analysis #Charts #Tradingview #InvestmentStrategy #MarketWatch #StockMarket #PassiveInvesting #IndexFunds #FinancialMarkets #MarketWatch #FreeMarket #FreeMarkets #Markets #USTreasury #TreasuryBills #BalanceSheet #FED #Debt #Inflation #Statistic #Rates #Interest #Asset #Bitcoin #Dollar #Sats #BTC #Market #Currency #Analysis #Investment #News #Finance #Education #Blockchain #Mining #BitcoinMining #macro The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on Soundwise

In this episode, Nik delivers a global macro update covering the economy and every asset class. He analyzes Bitcoin’s performance versus Ethereum as ETH faces steep declines and unpacks TBL Liquidity, focusing on key indicators like 10-year Treasuries, real yields, inflation breakevens, and the 2s10s curve, while highlighting the MOVE index as a sign of rising market fear of inflation. Nik then explores the impact of spiking mortgage yields, the Fed’s balance sheet, QT, and the ongoing RRP decline. Wrapping up, he explains how the upcoming election won’t necessarily affect the debt-to-GDP ratio or inflationary pressures in the months ahead. The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Unchained, the leader in Bitcoin financial services. Unchained empowers you to take full control of your Bitcoin with a collaborative multisig vault, where you hold two of three keys, and benefit from a Bitcoin security partner. Purchase Bitcoin directly into your cold storage vault and eliminate exchange risks with Unchained's Trading Desk. Unchained also offers the best IRA product in the industry, allowing you to easily roll over old 401(k)s or IRAs into Bitcoin while keeping control of your keys. Don’t pay more taxes than you have to. Talk to us today. Visit https://thebitcoinlayer.com/unchained and use code TBL for $100 off when you create an account. Efani delivers premium mobile service with unparalleled protection against SIM swaps and privacy invasions. Use code TBL at checkout for $99 off the Efani SAFE Plan. https://www.efani.com/tbl?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Try Stamp Seed, a DIY kit that enables you to hammer your seed words into a durable plate of titanium using professional stamping tools. Take 15% off with code TBL. Get your Stamp Seed today! https://www.stampseed.com/shop/titanium-seed-phrase-storage-kits.html?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube. Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform. Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch Block Height 867215 Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball #TheBitcoinLayer #NikBhatia #GlobalMacro #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Crypto #BTCvsETH #MarketAnalysis #Liquidity #TBLLiquidity #TreasuryYields #Inflation #YieldCurve #MarketFear #MortgageRates #FederalReserve #QuantitativeTightening #Election2024 #DebtCrisis #FinancialMarkets #Bloomberg #Analysis #Charts #Tradingview #InvestmentStrategy #MarketWatch #StockMarket #PassiveInvesting #IndexFunds #FinancialMarkets #MarketWatch #FreeMarket #FreeMarkets #Markets #USTreasury #TreasuryBills #BalanceSheet #FED #Debt #Inflation #Statistic #Rates #Interest #Asset #Bitcoin #Dollar #Sats #BTC #Market #Currency #Analysis #Investment #News #Finance #Education #Blockchain #Mining #BitcoinMining #macro The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on Soundwise

In this global macro update, Nik covers the Treasury market selloff and its impact on global markets. With U.S. Treasury yields hitting new highs, driven by fiscal concerns, strong economic data, and political uncertainty, Nik explains what this means for Bitcoin, risk assets, and the broader economy. He also discusses key levels in the bond market, S&P 500, Bitcoin, gold, and the dollar, while examining the role of fiscal deficits and Fed policy. As Trump’s return to the White House looms, Nik highlights the risks to watch in the months ahead. The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Unchained, the leader in Bitcoin financial services. Unchained empowers you to take full control of your Bitcoin with a collaborative multisig vault, where you hold two of three keys, and benefit from a Bitcoin security partner. Purchase Bitcoin directly into your cold storage vault and eliminate exchange risks with Unchained's Trading Desk. Unchained also offers the best IRA product in the industry, allowing you to easily roll over old 401(k)s or IRAs into Bitcoin while keeping control of your keys. Don’t pay more taxes than you have to. Talk to us today. Visit https://thebitcoinlayer.com/unchained and use code TBL for $100 off when you create an account. Try Stamp Seed, a DIY kit that enables you to hammer your seed words into a durable plate of titanium using professional stamping tools. Take 15% off with code TBL. Get your Stamp Seed today! https://www.stampseed.com/shop/titanium-seed-phrase-storage-kits.html?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Efani delivers premium mobile service with unparalleled protection against SIM swaps and privacy invasions. Use code TBL at checkout for $99 off the Efani SAFE Plan. https://www.efani.com/tbl?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube. Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform. Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch Block Height 866927 Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball #TheBitcoinLayer #NikBhatia #TreasuryMarket #USYields #RiskAssets #Economy #BondMarket #SP500 #Gold #Dollar #FiscalDeficits #FedPolicy #Trump2024 #FiscalConcerns #MarketImpact #EconomicOutlook #TreasuryYields #PoliticalUncertainty #Bloomberg #Analysis #Charts #Tradingview #InvestmentStrategy #MarketWatch #StockMarket #PassiveInvesting #IndexFunds #FinancialMarkets #MarketWatch #FreeMarket #FreeMarkets #Markets #USTreasury #TreasuryBills #BalanceSheet #FED #Debt #Inflation #Statistic #Rates #Interest #Asset #Bitcoin #Dollar #Sats #BTC #Market #Currency #Analysis #Investment #News #Finance #Education #Blockchain #Mining #BitcoinMining #macro The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on Soundwise

In this episode, Galaxy's head of research Alex Thorn helps Nik unpack the evolving landscape of crypto venture capital and Bitcoin's unique position in today's market. They discuss how, despite Bitcoin's impressive price recovery, VC funding in the broader crypto space is drying up, highlighting a significant shift in investment trends. Alex explains the growing interest in Bitcoin ETFs and what this tells us about changing institutional sentiment, as major players like pension funds now have easier access to Bitcoin exposure. The conversation explores the emergence of a "barbell market" in crypto, with Bitcoin representing long-term value on one end and meme coins dominating speculative trading on the other, leaving little room for traditional VC-backed projects. Nik and Alex also touch on the importance of Satoshi's anonymity following a recent documentary, and discuss how factors like rising interest rates and stablecoin demand are reshaping the market landscape. Throughout the episode, the focus remains on Bitcoin's growing divergence from other cryptocurrencies, both in performance and investor perception. The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Unchained, the leader in Bitcoin financial services. Unchained empowers you to take full control of your Bitcoin with a collaborative multisig vault, where you hold two of three keys, and benefit from a Bitcoin security partner. Purchase Bitcoin directly into your cold storage vault and eliminate exchange risks with Unchained's Trading Desk. Unchained also offers the best IRA product in the industry, allowing you to easily roll over old 401(k)s or IRAs into Bitcoin while keeping control of your keys. Don’t pay more taxes than you have to. Talk to us today. Visit https://thebitcoinlayer.com/unchained and use code TBL for $100 off when you create an account. Try Stamp Seed, a DIY kit that enables you to hammer your seed words into a durable plate of titanium using professional stamping tools. Take 15% off with code TBL. Get your Stamp Seed today! https://www.stampseed.com/shop/titanium-seed-phrase-storage-kits.html?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Efani delivers premium mobile service with unparalleled protection against SIM swaps and privacy invasions. Use code TBL at checkout for $99 off the Efani SAFE Plan. https://www.efani.com/tbl?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube. Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform. Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch Block Height 866257 Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball #TheBitcoinLayer #NikBhatia #VentureCapital #ETFs #Stablecoins #Market #MemeCoins #InvestmentStrategies #SatoshisAnonymity #InstitutionalInvesting #VCFunding #Bloomberg #Analysis #Charts #Tradingview #InvestmentStrategy #MarketWatch #StockMarket #PassiveInvesting #IndexFunds #FinancialMarkets #MarketWatch #FreeMarket #FreeMarkets #Markets #USTreasury #TreasuryBills #BalanceSheet #FED #Debt #Inflation #Statistic #Rates #Interest #Asset #Bitcoin #Dollar #Sats #BTC #Gold #Market #Trading #Currency #Crypto #Analysis #Investment #News #Finance #Education #Blockchain #Mining #BitcoinMining #macro The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on Soundwise

In this video, Nik dives into the mathematical heart of Bitcoin's future with statistical wizard Stephen Perrenod. They unravel the complex relationship between power laws and Bitcoin's market, and explain why bitcoin's growth isn't just exponential, but follows a fascinating power law pattern that could push its value to $1 million by 2033. From the diminishing impact of halvings to the mysterious Lindy effect, this deep-dive analysis compares bitcoin's volatility with gold, explores market bubbles, and reveals how simple mathematical models can predict trajectory. The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Unchained, the leader in Bitcoin financial services. Unchained empowers you to take full control of your Bitcoin with a collaborative multisig vault, where you hold two of three keys, and benefit from a Bitcoin security partner. Purchase Bitcoin directly into your cold storage vault and eliminate exchange risks with Unchained's Trading Desk. Unchained also offers the best IRA product in the industry, allowing you to easily roll over old 401(k)s or IRAs into Bitcoin while keeping control of your keys. Don’t pay more taxes than you have to. Talk to us today. Visit https://thebitcoinlayer.com/unchained and use code TBL for $100 off when you create an account. Try Stamp Seed, a DIY kit that enables you to hammer your seed words into a durable plate of titanium using professional stamping tools. Take 15% off with code TBL. Get your Stamp Seed today! https://www.stampseed.com/shop/titanium-seed-phrase-storage-kits.html?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Efani delivers premium mobile service with unparalleled protection against SIM swaps and privacy invasions. Use code TBL at checkout for $99 off the Efani SAFE Plan. https://www.efani.com/tbl?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube. Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform. Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch Block Height 866113 Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball #TheBitcoinLayer #NikBhatia #PowerLaw #Mathematics #BitcoinMath #ExponentialGrowth #MarketAnalysis #FinancialModeling #PowerLawEconomics #StatisticalAnalysis #FuturePredictions #MathInFinance #EconomicModels #GrowthPatterns #BitcoinForecast #MathOfMarkets #PredictiveModeling #QuantitativeAnalysis #MarketVolatility #FinancialTrends #MathOfInvesting #ComplexSystems #AlgorithmicFinance #DataScience #InvestmentStrategies #RiskModeling #Forecasting #Bloomberg #Analysis #Charts #Tradingview #InvestmentStrategy #MarketWatch #StockMarket #PassiveInvesting #IndexFunds #FinancialMarkets #MarketWatch #FreeMarket #FreeMarkets #Markets #USTreasury #TreasuryBills #BalanceSheet #FED #Debt #Inflation #Statistic #Rates #Interest #Asset #Bitcoin #Dollar #Sats #BTC #Gold #Market #Trading #Currency #Crypto #Analysis #Investment #News #Finance #Education #Blockchain #Mining #BitcoinMining #macro The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on Soundwise

In this video, Nik dives into what could be a perfect storm brewing in global markets. He unpacks Bitcoin's sudden 5% surge due to major economic shifts. To do so, he explores China's massive 6 trillion yuan bond stimulus and its global ripple effects, alongside the potential return of Trump's aggressive trade policies. Nik discusses the shocking scope of Trump's proposed tariffs and why economists are raising red flags. As the U.S. and China continue clashing, this video explains the overall effects this will have on bitcoin and global markets as the future reshapes. Articles linked below: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/12/trump-trade-tariffs-lighthizer-election-china.html https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/6.9.10Lighthizer.pdf https://www.caixinglobal.com/2024-10-14/exclusive-china-may-issue-6-trillion-yuan-in-treasury-bonds-to-buttress-economy-102245341.html https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/05/18/robert-lighthizer-trump-election-trade-tariffs-treasury-secretary/ The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Unchained, the leader in Bitcoin financial services. Unchained empowers you to take full control of your Bitcoin with a collaborative multisig vault, where you hold two of three keys, and benefit from a Bitcoin security partner. Purchase Bitcoin directly into your cold storage vault and eliminate exchange risks with Unchained's Trading Desk. Unchained also offers the best IRA product in the industry, allowing you to easily roll over old 401(k)s or IRAs into Bitcoin while keeping control of your keys. Don’t pay more taxes than you have to. Talk to us today. Visit https://thebitcoinlayer.com/unchained and use code TBL for $100 off when you create an account. Efani delivers premium mobile service with unparalleled protection against SIM swaps and privacy invasions. Use code TBL at checkout for $99 off the Efani SAFE Plan. https://www.efani.com/tbl?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Try Stamp Seed, a DIY kit that enables you to hammer your seed words into a durable plate of titanium using professional stamping tools. Take 15% off with code TBL. Get your Stamp Seed today! https://www.stampseed.com/shop/titanium-seed-phrase-storage-kits.html?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube. Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform. Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch Block Height 865671 Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball #TheBitcoinLayer #NikBhatia #GlobalMacro #USEconomy #RecessionFears #USDollar #YieldCurve #FederalReserve #USElection2024 #FinancialMarkets #MarketTrends #EconomicOutlook #FedPolicy #Unemployment #MarketAnalysis #TBLiquidity #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #DollarStrength #RateCuts #BondMarket #LaborMarket #REPO #GlobalMacro #AssetManagement #ChinaEconomy #USChinaTrade #TrumpTariffs #EconomicShifts #BondStimulus #FinancialNews #MarketTrends #InvestmentTrends #GlobalEconomy #Macroeconomics #TariffWar #TrumpEconomy #MarketAnalysis #Geopolitics #FinancialCrisis #TradeWar #StockMarket #EconomicOutlook #USChinaConflict #Bloomberg #Analysis #Charts #Tradingview #InvestmentStrategy #MarketWatch #StockMarket #PassiveInvesting #IndexFunds #FinancialMarkets #MarketWatch #FreeMarket #FreeMarkets #Markets #USTreasury #TreasuryBills #BalanceSheet #FED #Debt #Inflation #Statistic #Rates #Interest #Asset #Bitcoin #Dollar #Sats #BTC #Market #Currency #Analysis #Investment #News #Finance #Education #Blockchain #Mining #BitcoinMining #macro The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on Soundwise

In this episode, Nik presents a global macro update, breaking down conflicting signals in the US economy. He starts with inflation data, a recession that never seems to come, the surging US dollar’s impact on global markets, and the signal we derive from the shape of the yield curve. He tackles the Fed's balancing act between inflation, unemployment, and market expectations, while exploring if traditional recession indicators still apply. We make sure to include a segment on the bitcoin price and implications from the upcoming US election on financial markets. The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Unchained, the leader in Bitcoin financial services. Unchained empowers you to take full control of your Bitcoin with a collaborative multisig vault, where you hold two of three keys, and benefit from a Bitcoin security partner. Purchase Bitcoin directly into your cold storage vault and eliminate exchange risks with Unchained's Trading Desk. Unchained also offers the best IRA product in the industry, allowing you to easily roll over old 401(k)s or IRAs into Bitcoin while keeping control of your keys. Don’t pay more taxes than you have to. Talk to us today. Visit https://thebitcoinlayer.com/unchained and use code TBL for $100 off when you create an account. Efani delivers premium mobile service with unparalleled protection against SIM swaps and privacy invasions. Use code TBL at checkout for $99 off the Efani SAFE Plan. https://www.efani.com/tbl?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Try Stamp Seed, a DIY kit that enables you to hammer your seed words into a durable plate of titanium using professional stamping tools. Take 15% off with code TBL. Get your Stamp Seed today! https://www.stampseed.com/shop/titanium-seed-phrase-storage-kits.html?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube. Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform. Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch Block Height 865275 Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball #TheBitcoinLayer #NikBhatia #GlobalMacro #USEconomy #RecessionFears #USDollar #YieldCurve #FederalReserve #USElection2024 #FinancialMarkets #MarketTrends #EconomicOutlook #FedPolicy #Unemployment #MarketAnalysis #TBLiquidity #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #DollarStrength #RateCuts #BondMarket #LaborMarket #REPO #GlobalMacro #AssetManagement #NikExplains #Bloomberg #Analysis #Charts #Tradingview #InvestmentStrategy #MarketWatch #StockMarket #PassiveInvesting #IndexFunds #FinancialMarkets #MarketWatch #FreeMarket #FreeMarkets #Markets #USTreasury #TreasuryBills #BalanceSheet #FED #Debt #Inflation #Statistic #Rates #Interest #Asset #Bitcoin #Dollar #Sats #BTC #Market #Currency #Analysis #Investment #News #Finance #Education #Blockchain #Mining #BitcoinMining #macro The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on Soundwise