THE VON GREYERZ PERSPECTIVE - vongreyerz.substack.com

INVESTING FOR POSSIBLE WARHUNT & VON GREYRZ: A conversation on capital controls, China’s rise, and protecting wealth.Simon Hunt and Egon von Greyerz argue that we are nearing the end of a long monetary cycle.Decades of debt, money printing, and manipulated inflation data have weakened the global financial system, leaving fiat currencies close to collapse.They see the world shifting from U.S. unipolar dominance to a multipolar order led by Russia, China, and India. This realignment, combined with flashpoints like Iran–Israel, Ukraine, and tensions in Europe, points to rising geopolitical risk. As Hunt puts it:“The message from the SCO meetings was clear: talk is yesterday, action is for the future.”At home, both expect civil unrest, fragile banks, and capital controls. Von Greyerz is blunt:“Being in the banking system, in my view, is a major risk.”Meanwhile, inflation and food prices are set to soar, making everyday security as important as portfolio strategy.Their answer is clear: wealth protection through physical gold and silver:“There’s only one asset that has survived throughout history and maintained its value — nature’s money, which is gold”says von Greyerz.Looking ahead, Hunt places the likely collapse of Western systems around 2028. Von Greyerz stresses that timing is secondary: “Protection is more important than forecasting the timing.” This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit vongreyerz.substack.com

Egon von Greyerz has long warned that the lessons of monetary history are ignored at great peril. In 1971, when the U.S. abandoned the gold standard, a decade of unprecedented currency debasement and soaring gold prices followed. Between 1971 and 1980, gold rose more than 20-fold, protecting those who understood the inevitability of monetary decline.Today, the same conditions are unfolding once again. With currencies under pressure, debts unsustainable, and central banks trapped, the stage is set for another historic move in gold — one that mirrors the 1970s, but on a far larger scale.Key Insights0:00 – 0:30, Gold’s Cyclical NatureGold moves in cycles and never rises or falls in a straight line. Governments and central banks continually devalue paper money to survive politically.0:30 – 1:20, Nixon Ends Gold ConvertibilityIn 1971, Nixon closed the gold window, ending dollar convertibility into gold at $35 per ounce. The dollar lost 99% of its value against gold, which climbed to nearly $3,500 today.1:20 – 1:45, Inflation and Rates in the 1970sThe 1970s saw rapid monetary expansion, high inflation, and soaring interest rates, with mortgages reaching 21%. Gold surged from $35 to $850 by 1980, rising about 25 times in less than a decade.1:45 – 2:06, Long Correction PeriodFrom 1980 to 2000, gold entered a long correction, falling to $250 per ounce in 1999. Stocks were more attractive during this period, but gold still held far above its 1971 level.2:06 – 3:04, Reversal and AccumulationBy the late 1990s, central banks sold large portions of their gold reserves at market lows. Investors buying around $300 per ounce positioned for both wealth preservation and significant gains.3:04 – 4:19, Structural Revaluation of GoldToday, with gold near $3,500, central banks and BRICS nations are accumulating heavily. The speaker sees this as a structural revaluation, not a normal cycle, and expects gold and silver to keep rising for many years. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit vongreyerz.substack.com

As Grant Williams highlights in his report Things That Make You Go Hmmm..., investor Tony Deden calls trust: “The Invisible Leverage”not a soft asset, but the silent architecture that makes markets function, societies endure, and promises hold:Trust cannot be manufactured. It must be earned.It emerges slowly—through consistency, clarity, and moral courage.And it vanishes quickly—through duplicity, evasion, or shallow opportunism.When institutions falter and uncertainty rises, it is trust—not trendlines—that preserves continuity.Trust is not a luxury. It is a form of capital. And in the end, it may be the only one that truly endures.This series begins there, with trust.Because before we talk about money, we must talk about meaning.Gold: Tangible TrustGold, at its core, is not a speculative asset. It is trust made tangible.It does not promise yield, but it does not break promises either.It is no one else’s liability, and it cannot be printed, defaulted on, or debased.In a world staggering under the weight of unsustainable debt, manipulated currencies, and failing institutions, gold represents permanence—something solid when nearly everything else feels uncertain.Egon von Greyerz has spent decades studying the arc of financial history. His message is clear: gold is not about timing the market. It is about building resilience before the crisis hits.First Principles of PreservationThese episodes distill Egon’s philosophy into three enduring principles:* Real money is tangible.* Paper promises fail.* Wealth must be protected before it can be enjoyed.This is not a series about chasing returns.It’s about preserving the only capital that truly matters—trust.Whether you’re new to gold or re-evaluating your strategy, this is a clear, sober path toward financial resilience. One built not on forecasts, but on foundations. Not on speculation, but on structure. Not on hype, but on history.EpisodesEpisode 1: Gold as Financial Insurance, Not Just Investment* Gold is not for speculation — it is wealth preservation and freedom.* Hold it in physical form, outside the banking system, in safe jurisdictions.* Protects against inevitable collapse of currencies and financial structures.Episode 2: The Decline of Fiat Currencies* Since 1971, all major currencies have lost 99% of their value against gold.* Every fiat currency in history has eventually gone to zero.* Paper money and debased silver are “fake money” compared to physical gold.Episode 3: Safe Storage and Jurisdiction Choices* Keep gold where only you can access it — not in the system you’re hedging against.* Jurisdictions under stress may impose capital controls or seize assets.* Safer alternatives include Switzerland or Singapore.Episode 4: Gold as Stable Purchasing Power* Gold’s value doesn’t rise — it stays stable while currencies fall.* Example: one ounce of gold bought a fine suit 2,000 years ago and still does today.* Gold is “nature’s money” and maintains purchasing power over generations.Episode 5: Beyond Money, Life and Wealth Preservation* Owning gold is financial insurance, but life should not revolve around money.* Secure your wealth, then focus on family, friends, nature, and culture.* In difficult times, helping others is more important than financial gain.Episode 6: Why Bitcoin Isn’t a Replacement for Gold* Bitcoin is digital, speculative, and has no intrinsic value.* It could rise dramatically, but could also collapse to zero.* Gold (and some silver) held physically is the only true wealth-preservation asset.Episode 7: Physical Gold Over Paper or Tokenized Forms* ETFs, paper gold, or tokenized gold won’t hold value in a systemic crisis.* Only physical gold and silver under your control provide real protection.* Keep assets outside the financial system to avoid loss in a collapse.Episode 8: How Much Gold to Hold* For 25 years, the recommendation has been 20–50% of assets in gold.* Some investors hold nearly 100% in gold and have done well long term.* Today, at least 20–25% is considered the minimum for protection.Episode 9: Silver’s Unique Wealth Preservation Opportunity* Silver is undervalued compared to gold, with potential to move 2–3x faster.* Historically reached $50 but could exceed it significantly in the next cycle.* Suggested allocation: 20–30% in silver for wealth preservation, despite volatility. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit vongreyerz.substack.com

In this conversation, Matthew sits down with Will Rind, founder and CEO of GraniteShares, to confront today’s paradoxical markets. They examine the fragile state of credit and sovereign debt, central bank distortions, and the dangerous concentration in tech equities, while also considering how gold, crypto, and even the Magnificent Seven are perceived as “safe havens.”The discussion also turns to leveraged ETFs, daily rebalancing mechanics, and innovation in asset management, framed against the risks of speculation, margin debt, and the inevitable consequences of financial excess. As Egon often warns: wealth preservation must take precedence when illusions of safety dominate markets.Key Timestamps* 00:07 – Setting the StageIntroduction to Will Rind, GraniteShares, and the breadth of ETFs offered.* 02:24 – A Fragile Market BackdropGlobal risks from trade wars to sovereign debt, contrasted with U.S. fundamentals.* 05:23 – The Best of Times, the Worst of TimesMargin debt at record highs, tech market concentration, and Buffett’s cash as a warning.* 08:18 – The New “Safe Havens”How investors now view tech giants, AI, crypto, and gold as parallel refuges.* 13:03 – The Rise of ETFsFrom humble beginnings to trillions in assets, and why GraniteShares chooses innovation over scale.* 18:32 – Leverage and Daily ResetsThe mechanics of leveraged single-stock ETFs, their benefits over margin accounts, and the risks of compounding.* 24:00 – Retail vs Institutional FlowsWhy retail investors buy every dip while institutions remain cautious.* 27:30 – Central Banks and Moral HazardHow the Fed put removed fear, and why young investors no longer believe in lasting corrections.* 33:03 – The Burry CritiqueAre ETFs distorting true price discovery and concentrating control in too few hands?* 36:36 – Leverage and SpeculationThe temptation and danger of speculation in a late-stage bubble environment.* 42:01 – Closing ReflectionsOn preservation vs speculation, and why investors must distinguish illusion from reality. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit vongreyerz.substack.com

JAMES TURK: THE FEAR INDEX SIGNALS A BANKING COLLAPSEEgon von Greyerz & James Turk revisit past warnings on currency debasement, debt, and gold—showing why cracks in the global system are now undeniable.In this compelling conversation, two iconic veterans of the precious metals space, Egon von Greyerz and James Turk, bring needed financial AND historical perspective to evolving (and eerily foreseeable) cracks in the global financial system. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit vongreyerz.substack.com

Can Gold Save the U.S.?The $20,000 Gold QuestionIn this deep-dive presentation, Matthew Piepenburg explores the growing speculation around a potential:U.S. gold revaluationWhat it is, why it might happen, and whether it could help alleviate America's mounting debt crisis. From historical context to Fed publications, Piepenburg breaks down the mechanics, motives, and risks behind this bold monetary possibility. Is gold about to play a central role in the future of U.S. finance? And could a $20,000 gold price really happen? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit vongreyerz.substack.com

WHY HASN’T THE DOLLAR FALLEN MORE?THE DOLLAR HAS LOST 99% SINCE 1971 — THE FINAL 1% WILL END THE SYSTEMIn a world drowning in debt, deficits, and relentless money printing, many still ask, “Why hasn’t the U.S. dollar collapsed?” But that question reveals a fundamental misunderstanding. As Egon von Greyerz explains, the dollar — like all fiat currencies — has already collapsed in real terms. Since 1971, when the link to gold was severed, the dollar has lost over 99% of its purchasing power when measured against gold, the only form of money that has held its value through centuries. What we're witnessing today is not stability — it’s the final phase of a long, slow debasement. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit vongreyerz.substack.com

How to capitalize on Trump tariffsStrategies to Navigate Volatility, Inflation, and Global Trade Shifts in 2025We’ve entered a new era of economic warfare — not with bullets, but with tariffs. As of August 1st, a fresh salvo of U.S. tariffs — aimed squarely at the European Union — is shaking global markets, trade alliances, and investor assumptions. Behind the headlines and tweets lies a deeper story: one of unsustainable debt, rising protectionism, and desperate policy measures masquerading as strategy.Tariffs may sound like policy tools, but in today’s volatile, debt-soaked world, they’re really signals — signals of inflation, recession risk, supply chain fracture, and a broader currency debasement. The question isn’t just what do these tariffs mean? The real question is: how do you position your capital in a world where trade wars are becoming the new norm, not the exception?This isn’t just about politics or policy—it’s about your portfolio. And in this environment, those who understand the macro context will survive. Those who act on it can thrive. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit vongreyerz.substack.com

HOW WILL THE DEBT BUBBLE BURST?A Sudden Collapse or a Slow Unwind?In this riveting conversation, Egon von Greyerz and Lynette Zang explore the collapse of the global financial system, the rise of gold and silver as safe-haven assets, and the dangers of fiat currencies, tokenization, and speculative mania. They expose systemic risks hidden in plain sight and provide critical insights on how individuals can protect themselves with physical precious metals. This is a wake-up call for anyone relying on traditional markets, paper assets, or digital illusions to preserve their wealth. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit vongreyerz.substack.com

0.15% BACKINGThe Shocking Gold Coverage of Global Financial LiabilitiesIn this urgent and sobering analysis, Egon von Greyerz lays bare the terrifying scale of the global debt pyramid—now towering at $2.5 quadrillion. With central banks holding just $4 trillion in gold, Egon explains why the current financial system is fundamentally unsustainable. He draws from history, not hype, to show how all monetary systems collapse—and why physical gold and silver remain the only lifeboats worth boarding. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit vongreyerz.substack.com