Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

Kamala Harris, the Vice President of the United States, discusses how debate performances now influence tight presidential races differently. She argues a small victory in a debate could sway crucial voter opinions. Election analyst Kyle Kondik joins to analyze key House and Senate races, exploring hypothetical scenarios around narrow wins for both Trump and Harris. The conversation digs into voter polarization in swing states and the dynamics of recent campaign strategies, including an ad targeting Independents in Maryland.

Upon gaining the Democratic Party's nomination, Kamala Harris's favorability rating surged from below her boss's historic low to nearly 50 percent today. But did the swell come too soon? Fox News Radio analyst and Editor-in-Chief of Jewish Insider Josh Kraushaar joins to discuss the post-convention slump, along with a review of how the lingering war in Gaza and unsettling chatter from extreme partisans might affect the Jewish vote in November.Plus, Henry gives special attention to a recent piece by Patrick Rufini about overestimated margins in past elections that could help us spot potential polling errors. And he takes a look at a couple of ads out of Michigan 8: Kristen McDonald Rivet's quirky tax-cutter introduction ad and challenger Paul Junge's spot to define her on radical social positions.

Since the 2020 election, American political observers have heard a great deal about voter fraud. But media coverage tends to either enthusiastically endorse or vehemently dismiss the accusations without parsing out the details of what’s being alleged. Today’s guest, Arizona elections analyst Garrett Archer, takes us through the process that occurs between your submitting a ballot and its tallying. He and Henry get into the weeds on everything from signature verification and speculation about machine hacking, to late-night swings and the canvassing process, along with why it takes so long to count the votes. Plus, Henry delves into RFK Jr.’s withdrawal from the race and considers who stands to gain. And he takes a close look at two ads—one for Republican Rob Bresnahan of Northeastern Pennsylvania and another for Democrat Hillary Scholten of West Michigan—who both make deft appeals to swing voters in districts where the candidates’ party hardly enjoys a firm majority.

In this engaging discussion, Jeff Roe, the founder of Axiom Strategies and a prominent Republican consultant, shares insights from his journey in political consulting. He humorously contrasts the dirtiness of politics with his farming roots. Jeff delves into the evolution of political conventions, emphasizing their diminishing influence. He highlights the critical need for candidates to embrace authenticity and personal agency in crafting compelling narratives. The impact of AI on campaigning and voter communication also emerges as a key topic.

In Alaska's 2022 special election, candidates as varied as Sarah Palin and Mary Peltola to Santa Claus were on the ballot. That year was also unique for offering ranked-choice voting, allowing conflicted residents to cast as many as four picks with descending weight. In November, both the incumbent Peltola and the ranked-choice repeal initiative are on the ballot, so Henry recruits the Alaska Beacon's James Brooks to give us a tour of the vast electoral wilderness. Plus, Henry wonders about the staying power of Kamala-mania; and unpacks an Arizona attack ad that highlights the firebrand Kari Lake's baggage. 

Michael Podhorzer, former political director of the AFL-CIO, joins Sherrod Brown, the Democratic Senator from Ohio, to dissect the high-stakes political landscape. They tackle the polarizing campaign narratives and the significance of running mate selections, particularly for Kamala Harris. The discussion reveals how current events and strategic advertising—like Brown's unexpected Republican-themed border ad—are crucial to swaying undecided voters. Key insights on the evolving Democratic campaign strategies add depth to the conversation.

With Joe Biden's decision to drop out from the presidential race, the Democratic Party has been forced to improvise. But there's a method to what looks like madness! Joining Henry today is the Brookings Institution's Elaine Kamarck — author of Primary Politics: Everything You Need to Know about How America Nominates Its Presidential Candidates. Tune in for an in-depth discussion on the process that will straighten out the party's predicament.Plus, Henry considers how Kamala Harris's placement on the ticket affects the "double haters" that have simultaneously fascinated and flummoxed pollsters; and he takes us through Wesley Bell's latest ad to get the attention of Cori Bush's base. 

Daniel Scarpinato, a political analyst specializing in Arizona's primaries, joins to discuss the shifting dynamics in the state's political landscape. They cover the fierce Democratic battle against David Schweikert in AZ 1 and the Republican fight to replace Debbie Lesko in AZ 8. Scarpinato dives into how key issues like abortion rights are shaping campaigns, especially with impactful advertising strategies aimed at mobilizing voters. Their insights reveal just how critical Arizona's votes will be in the upcoming elections.

It’s been a wicked googly of a week in American politics! To start, Henry appraises how the polls might be affected by both the attempt on Trump’s life and the announcement of an all-outsider ticket, with J.D. Vance in the VP slot. Next, he and Michael Dimock (president of the Pew Research Center) delve into the process of crafting public opinion polls that pin down the perplexing array of citizen sentiments. Lastly, he takes a look at another ad of the week — this time from a problem-solving newcomer running in Wisconsin’s 8th.

Former White House Press Secretary Dana Perino discusses Joe Biden's decline, Democratic concerns, and speculation on a potential candidacy exit. They also analyze political ads, NATO summit expectations, swing state dynamics, and historical parallels, including a focus on Maggie Goodlander's congressional campaign in New Hampshire.