Manifold

Steve and Corey talk with theoretical physicist turned hedge fund investor Vineer Bhansali. Bhansali describes his transition from physics to finance, his firm LongTail Alpha, and his recent outsize returns from the coronavirus financial crisis. Also discussed: derivatives pricing, random walks, helicopter money, and Modern Monetary Theory.ResourcesTranscriptLongTail AlphaLongTail Alpha’s OneTail Hedgehog Fund II had 929% Return (Bloomberg)A New Anomaly Matching Condition? (1993)

Steve talks with Skype founder and global tech investor Jaan Tallinn. Will the coronavirus pandemic lead to better planning for future global risks? Jaan gives his list of top existential risks and describes his efforts to call attention to AI risk. They discuss AGI, the Simulation Question, the Fermi Paradox and how these are all connected. Do we live in a simulation of a quantum multiverse?RationalityJaan X-Risk LinksLessWrongSlate Star CodexMetaculusAdditional ResourcesTranscriptFermi Paradox — Where Are All The Aliens?Is Hilbert space discrete?

Steve and Corey talk to legendary NCAA and Olympic wrestler and coach Dan Gable. Gable describes the final match of his collegiate career, an NCAA championship upset which spoiled his undefeated high school and college record. The Coach explains how the loss led him to take a more scientific approach to training and was critical for his later success. They discuss the tragic murder of Gable’s sister, and the steps 15-year old Gable took try to save his parents’ marriage. Gable describes his eye for talent and philosophy of developing athletes. Steve gets Gable’s reaction to ultimate fighting and jiujitsu.ResourcesTranscriptDan Gable vs Larry Owings – 1970 NCAA Title Match (video)The Champion (1970 documentary on Gable’s senior NCAA season)

Steve and Corey talk to Klaus Lackner, director of the Center for Negative Carbon Emissions (CNCE) at Arizona State University and the first person to suggest removing CO2 from air to address climate change. Steve asks whether Klaus’ research was motivated by a tail risk of catastrophic outcomes due to CO2 build up. Klaus explains that he sees atmospheric CO2 as a waste management problem. Calculations show that removing human-produced carbon is energetically and economically viable. Klaus describes his invention, a “mechanical tree”, that passively collects CO2 from the air, allowing it to be stored or converted to fuel.ResourcesTranscriptKlaus Lackner (Faculty Bio)Center for Negative Carbon Emissions at ASU

Steve and Corey talk to Kieren James-Lubin and Victor Wong of the blockchain technology startup, BlockApps. They begin with a discussion of the COVID-19 epidemic (~25m): lockdown, predictions of ICU overload, and helicopter money. Will personal contact tracking become the new normal? Transitioning to blockchain, a technology many view as viable even in times of widespread societal disruption, they give a basic explanation of the underlying cryptographic and consensus algorithms. Kieren and Victor explain how BlockApps was founded, its business model, and history as a startup. They conclude with a comparison of startup ecosystems in China, Silicon Valley, and NYC.ResourcesTranscriptKieren James-LubinVictor Wong

Corey and Steve talk to Claude Steele of Stanford about his article “Why Campuses are So Tense?”. The essay explores stereotype threats across racial lines. Colorblindness is a standard of fairness, but what are the costs of ignoring our differences? Claude describes his research on minority underperformance and why single sex colleges may contribute to women’s success. Corey describes why he believes his daughter’s experience is a counterexample to the findings of the experiments that led the Supreme Court to outlaw segregation. The three discuss parenting in a diverse world and how ethnic integration differs between Europe and the US.ResourcesTranscriptClaude SteeleWhy Campuses are So Tense?Whistling Vivaldi: And Other Clues to How Stereotypes Affect UsIn Struggle: SNCC and the Black Awakening of the 1960s

Corey and Steve talk with MSU Neuroscientist A.J. Robison about why females may be more likely to suffer from depression than males. A.J. reviews past findings that low testosterone and having a smaller hippocampus may predict depression risk. He explains how a serendipitous observation opened up his current line of research and describes tools he uses to study neural circuits. Steve asks about the politics of studying sex differences and tells of a start up using CRISPR to attack heart disease. The three end with a discussion of the psychological effects of ketamine, testosterone and deep brain stimulation.Topics01:18 – Link between antidepressants, neurogenesis and reducing risk of depression13:54 – Nature of Mouse models23:19 – How you tell whether a mouse exhibits depressive symptoms32:36 – Liz Williams’ serendipitous finding and the issue of biological sex45:47 – A.J.’s research plans for circuit specific gene editing in the mouse brain and a start up’s plan to use it to tackle human cardiovascular disease59:07 – Psychological and Neurological Effects of Ketamine. Testosterone and Deep Brain StimulationResourcesTranscriptRobison Lab at MSU@RobisonLabMSUPapersAndrogen-dependent excitability of mouse ventral hippocampal afferents to nucleus accumbens underlies sex-specific susceptibility to stress.Neurogenesis and The Effect of AntidepressantsIntegrating Interleukin-6 into depression diagnosis and treatmentSub-chronic variable stress induces sex-specific effects on glutamatergic synapses in the nucleus accumbens.Prefrontal cortical circuit for depression- and anxiety-related behaviors mediated by cholecystokinin: role of ΔFosB.Emerging role of viral vectors for circuit-specific gene interrogation and manipulation in rodent brain.

In this engaging discussion, Kaja Perina, Editor in Chief of Psychology Today and an expert in personality disorders, dives deep into the intriguing world of the Dark Triad: narcissism, Machiavellianism, and psychopathy. She explores whether these traits are more common in successful individuals and questions if too much empathy can be counterproductive. The conversation also touches on sociopathy's prevalence in academia and corporate leadership, highlighting the complex relationship between power and unethical behavior.

Steve and Corey talk to Adam Dynes of Brigham Young University about whether voting has an effect on policy outcomes. Adam’s work finds that control of state legislatures or governorships does not have an observable effect on macroscopic variables such as crime rates, the economy, etc. Possible explanations: parties push essentially the same policies, politicians don’t keep promises, monied interest control everything. Are voting decisions just noisy mood affiliation? Perhaps time is better spent obsessing about sports teams, which at least generates pleasure.Topics1:22 – What is retrospective voting?5:43 – Research findings on retrospective voting14:02 – Uniparty/Monied interests?17:23 – Martin Gilens’ research23:10 – Are people just voting based on noise or mood affiliation?27:13 – Bryan Caplan – Myth of the Rational Voter34:35 – Is time better spent obsessing about sports teams, which at least generates pleasure?39:42 – After the fall of Athens, was democracy commonly referred to as irrational mob rule?48:22 – Does this research translate to the national level?52:19 – Super Nerdy Stuff: Statistical Analysis, Reproducibility & Null Results56:40 – Reactions to the resultsResourcesTranscriptAdam Dynes (Personal Website)Adam Dynes (Faculty Profile)Noisy Retrospection: The Effect of Party Control on Policy Outcomes

Yang Wang is Dean of Science at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Wang received his BS degree in mathematics from University of Science and Technology of China in 1983, and his PhD degree from Harvard University in 1990 under the supervision of Fields medalist David Mumford. He served as Chair of the Mathematics department at Michigan State University before joining HKUST.Topics2:50 – US-China Relations: Has China advanced through the development of human capital or the theft of intellectual property?16:23 – Academic Culture in China33:00 – Hong Kong Protests: Economic inequality, housing prices, and outside actors.1:04:09 – Coronavirus COVID-19: Has the Coronavirus established a new mode of online education in Hong Kong? Yang makes a forecast about the epidemic’s trajectory.ResourcesTranscriptYang Wang, Dean of Science at HKUSTYang Wang (Faculty Profile)