Uncertain Things

Scientist-turned-historian Peter Turchin is best known for a dire prediction he made in 2010: we were headed for serious unrest, circa 2020. Peter came to this (as-so-happened) accurate prediction by treating the soft science of history like a hard one — what he calls cliodynamics. He and his team quantified indicators of social unrest in previous historical periods, generating a database of information, and then created a structural-dynamic model that could determine the biggest drivers of social violence and societal collapse. Peter, who’s currently serving as the Project Leader at the Complexity Science Hub in Vienna, talks to us about his approach to history, the factors that are most responsible for our current period of unrest, and the actions that could, just maybe, divert us from Civil War II.  Check out our ‘Inscrutable’ blog and ‘Uncertainty’ newsletter for thoughts and rants. To support us and gain access to exclusive content, consider becoming a paid member of Uncertain on Substack. Follow @UncertainPod on your social media of choice.On the agenda:-Peter pre-amble and Vishaan post-script (0:00-7:01)-How cliodynamics work? (07:02-17:21)-Quantifying instability, locating gaps, and making predictions (17:22-28:33-The state of our present-day empire (28:34-38:28)-The trouble with too many elites (38:29-51:34)-How to stop an unfolding trainwreck (51:35-1:02:44)Uncertain Things is hosted and produced by Adaam James Levin-Areddy and Vanessa M. Quirk. For more doomsday rumination, subscribe to: uncertain.substack.com. Get full access to Uncertain Things at uncertain.substack.com/subscribe

Urbanist, architect, and professor Vishaan Chakrabarti joins us to explain how the f*** cities got so expensive — and, while we’re at it, ugly. Vishaan is both a doer and a thinker — he’s the founder and creative director of Practice for Architecture and Urbanism as well as a writer of books, talker of TEDs, and a collaborator of journalists (see: "Not Your Car"). In this conversation, we dig into the affordability crisis, why Progressives keep running cities into the ground, and what we need to do to have better cities — and lives. Check out our ‘Inscrutable’ newsletter for thoughts and rants. To support us and gain access to exclusive content, consider becoming a paid member of Uncertain on Substack. Follow @UncertainPod on your social media of choice.On the agenda:-Prelude [0:00-7:05]-The Uncertainty Newsletter! [7:06-8:29]-A History of Housing: The Arms Race and Race [8:30-22:27]-Bubblegum, shoestring, and vicious circles [22:28-27:31]-The many ramifications of Reagan [27:32-34:28]-When cities became safe and sexy [34:29-43:48]-Progressive cities' misguided policies [43:49-47:49]-The absurdity and cruelty of San Francisco (see: Nellie Bowles’ “How SF Became a Failed City”) [47:50-52:53]-The aftermath of Jane Jacobs [52:54-1:00:40]-Community engagement conundrums [1:00:41-1:11:48]-On gentrification, cars, and future urbanites [1:11:49-1:20:37]-The national vs. the urbanist conversation [1:20:38-1:26:14]-NYC vs. SF [1:26:15-1:36:01]-Why are cities so depressing? [1:36:02-1:44:34]-Blindspots [1:44:35-1:47:22]Uncertain Things is hosted and produced by Adaam James Levin-Areddy and Vanessa M. Quirk. For more doomsday rumination, subscribe to: uncertain.substack.com. Get full access to Uncertain Things at uncertain.substack.com/subscribe

Foreign policy expert Walter Russell Mead’s new book — The Arc of a Covenant — kept Adaam up at night with its unique insight into the American-Israel relationship and its gripping historical anecdotes (Stalin! Truman! Roosevelt, oh my!). In this conversation, we investigate the culpability of “THE JEWS,” explore why gentiles catalyzed the creation a Jewish nation-state, discuss the ways anti-Semites keep accidentally helping Israel, and break down the specter of Orientalism that keeps haunting American foreign policy. Plus, we get into the Iran deal and some good old-fashioned geo-politics, by way of a Matt Yglesias tweet.Check out our ‘Inscrutable’ newsletter for thoughts and rants. To support us and gain access to exclusive content, consider becoming a paid member of Uncertain on Substack. Follow @UncertainPod on your social media of choice.On the agenda:-Debunking the Israel myth [7:57-15:00]-Antisemitism: long-rooted and occasionally helpful [15:01-29:44]-Orientalism [29:45-36:16]-Shaping the world in America's image [36:17-49:58]-The Cold War, Stalin, and Truman (or The Randomness of History) [49:59-1:07:28]-The history of the craziest, most practical, idea [1:07:29-1:15:57]-Matt Yglesias, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and geopolitics today [1:15:58-1:26:49]-Liberal Democracy: Nothing's set in stone [1:26:50-1:29:47]Follow WRM at @WRMead.Uncertain Things is hosted and produced by Adaam James Levin-Areddy and Vanessa M. Quirk. For more doomsday rumination, subscribe to: uncertain.substack.com. Get full access to Uncertain Things at uncertain.substack.com/subscribe

Christine Rosen is the best kind of opinion writer — one we love to disagree with. Senior fellow at AEI, senior writer at Commentary magazine, and co-host of the Commentary podcast, Christine joined us for a conversation ostensibly about trauma, a word/concept that is proliferating in art and life (and getting dangerously diluted in the process). However, this fun conversation sprawled over much contentious ground: history in public discourse, eugenics, human nature, the doomsaying of liberal media, the arrested development of conservative media, Mar-a-Lago, and the mutually assured destruction of marriage.Check out our ‘Inscrutable’ newsletter for thoughts and rants. To support us and gain access to exclusive content, consider becoming a paid member of Uncertain on Substack. Follow @UncertainPod on your social media of choice.On the agenda:-On history, humility, and human nature [4:45-12:56]-The Atlantic, panic porn, and conservative media [12:57-34:15]-Mar a Lago raid and our eroding trust [34:16-40:52]-Defining trauma down [40:53-1:11:12]-Losing the trauma plot [1:11:13-1:21:16]-On marriage, kids, and mutually assured destruction [1:21:17-1:30:18]-Blindspots [1:30:19-1:32:12]Uncertain Things is hosted and produced by Adaam James Levin-Areddy and Vanessa M. Quirk. For more doomsday rumination, subscribe to: uncertain.substack.com. Get full access to Uncertain Things at uncertain.substack.com/subscribe

In his latest book, Matthew Continetti — the right’s pre-eminent intellectual historian — traces the rich history of America’s 20th century conservative moment. In this conversation, we don’t dive into the details of history itself (for that, pick up a copy of The Right: The Hundred-Year War for American Conservatism), but rather discuss the origins and repercussions of some of the right’s more unsettling trends — from post-liberalism to populism to religious authoritarianism. As is our wont, we debate, disagree, and dunk on Biden, too.Check out our ‘Inscrutable’ newsletter for thoughts and rants. To support us and gain access to exclusive content, consider becoming a paid member of Uncertain on Substack. Follow @UncertainPod on your social media of choice.On the agenda:-Analyzing the Right from the Right [0:00-7:26]-The Post-Liberals of the New Right [7:27-18:38]-Culture vs. Capitalism [18:39-32:46] -Rediscovering The American-ness of Conservatism [32:47-42:06] -Turning back the clock, but to when? [42:07-45:31] -Discussing Dobbs v. Jackson [45:32-52:11] -The Monster Within [52:12-1:05:49] -Blindspots on the Left & Right [1:05:50-1:07:34] Uncertain Things is hosted and produced by Adaam James Levin-Areddy and Vanessa M. Quirk. For more doomsday rumination, subscribe to: uncertain.substack.com. Get full access to Uncertain Things at uncertain.substack.com/subscribe

The yin to David French’s yang, lawyer Kreesa Lancaster gives us her perspective on how and why the Supreme Court came to the Dobbs v. Jackson ruling. Along the way, Kreesa breaks down the legalese, explaining such terms as substantive due process, stare decisis, and strict constructionism / originalism, for good measure. But we also discuss why all the legal wonkery can be a distraction from what’s really at play here — and what Americans need to be paying attention to. Check out our ‘Inscrutable’ newsletter for thoughts and rants. To support us and gain access to exclusive content, consider becoming a paid member of Uncertain on Substack. Follow @UncertainPod on your social media of choice.On the agenda:-Why we’re having this conversation now [0:00-4:07}-On leaks and legal disclaimers [4:08-7:09]-Substantive due process. What the f**k? [7:10-11:03]-Privacy: an unenumerated right [11:04-14:28] -Understanding originalism / strict constructionism [14:29-25:24]-Stare decisis and Roe’s impact [25:25-30:43] -Silver (or grayish?) linings [30:44-36:06] -Dissecting Dobbs v. Jackson [36:07-38:57] -The Supreme Court's five-prong test [38:58-50:29] -The veneer of legitimacy [50:30-1:01:43] -In Alito's shoes [1:01:44-1:09:50] -Deciding to come on the podcast [1:09:51-1:13:26]-What Dobbs means in practice [1:13:27-1:25:46]-Creating a culture of choice [1:25:47-1:41:35] -Other rulings in peril [1:41:36-1:50:02]Uncertain Things is hosted and produced by Adaam James Levin-Areddy and Vanessa M. Quirk. For more doomsday rumination, subscribe to: uncertain.substack.com. Get full access to Uncertain Things at uncertain.substack.com/subscribe

David French, conservative thinker, podcaster, and author of Divided We Fall, returns to the pod to talk about friendship, or the lack thereof, and why Americans are so goddamn lonely. David unpacks the link between loneliness and the rise of radical and authoritarian groups, and we ponder why Americans just don’t seem to prioritize friendship and connection (including in the built environment — bars that blare music, we’re looking at you). Stick to the end, and listen as we put our cross-partisan friendship to the test, throwing David some soft balls on topics as warm and fuzzzy as guns and abortion.Check out our ‘Inscrutable’ newsletter for thoughts and rants. To support us and gain access to exclusive content, consider becoming a paid member of Uncertain on Substack. Follow @UncertainPod on your social media of choice.On the agenda:- Vanessa’s baaaaaccckk [0:00-4:54]- The rise of factional friendship [4:55-14:16]- Friendship infrastructure [14:17-32:33] - Accountability & social cohesion  [32:34-41:15] - Gendered approaches to intimacy [41:16-48:41] - The ways we wall ourselves off [48:42-53:11] - Polarizing topic: Abortion [53:12-1:19:11]- Polarizing topic: Guns [1:19:12-1:27:49] - Friendships Lost [1:27:50-1:31:00]- Blindspots [1:31:01-1:32:51]Reading list:* Divided We Fall (duh!)* Bowling Alone (Robert Putnam)* Alienated America (Timothy P. Carney)* The Great Experiment (Yascha Mounk)Fourth of July bonus:Uncertain Things is hosted and produced by Adaam James Levin-Areddy and Vanessa M. Quirk. For more doomsday rumination, subscribe to: uncertain.substack.com. Get full access to Uncertain Things at uncertain.substack.com/subscribe

Back from a delicious month-long detachment from the news cycle, Adaam sits down with political vagabond and comedian Andrew Heaton, host of The Political Orphanage podcast, to relearn how to do audio rambling. In a more light-hearted discussion than normal (still need to warm up!), we talk the subtle art of political comedy, the glory (and pains) of arguing, and the implacable hardships of having a euphonious voice like Andrew’s.Find us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Podcast Addict, and Stitcher. Check out our ‘Inscrutable’ newsletter for thoughts and rants. To support us and gain access to exclusive content, consider becoming a paid member of Uncertain on Substack. Follow @UncertainPod on your social media of choice.On the agenda:-The fundamentals of Uncertain Things-Marriage, an atavism-The guy who may own a blimp-Drawing the line between stand up and shouting at each other-Having debates like a human-Something about the JewsUncertain Things is hosted and produced by Adaam James Levin-Areddy and Vanessa M. Quirk. For more doomsday rumination, subscribe to: uncertain.substack.com. Get full access to Uncertain Things at uncertain.substack.com/subscribe

Angel Eduardo, author and co-host of the Fair Perspectives podcast, insists that we can rise above this polarized moment and have real – difficult but vitriol-free – debates with each other. Steelmaning is for beginners. We’re talking starmanning! How to do that is what we try to figure on this episode. Adaam and Angel argue about the merits of compassion versus cognitive dissonance and how best to make people more comfortable about being wrong. Meanwhile, Vanessa worries that too much open-mindedness could lead to inaction – or even apathy. She also gets a good laugh from Angel’s diatribe about the word LatinX.Find us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Podcast Addict, and Stitcher. Check out our ‘Inscrutable’ newsletter for thoughts and rants. To support us and gain access to exclusive content, consider becoming a paid member of Uncertain on Substack. Follow @UncertainPod on your social media of choice.On the agenda:-Seeing through the Matrix-Compassion and humility or just cognitive dissonance?-Censorship is in the air and the Harper’s Letter-The art of being wrong (or: it’s ok to fight… verbally)-Who’s this ‘We’ we keep talking about?-Engineering language and Stalin’s hyphenation fascinationUncertain Things is hosted and produced by Adaam James Levin-Areddy and Vanessa M. Quirk. For more doomsday rumination, subscribe to: uncertain.substack.com. Get full access to Uncertain Things at uncertain.substack.com/subscribe

We’ve been wanting to have political theorist, writer, and podcaster Yascha Mounk on the show for a while now, and the wait was so worth it: his new book, The Great Experiment: Why Diverse Democracies Fall Apart and How They Can Endure, is not only timely, it’s quite Uncertain Thingsy. He explains the three main ways that diverse democracies fall apart — and to what extent the U.S. is already under their influence. Plus, we dunk on elites, bemoan our political status quo, and ask: could oppression be good for us?Find us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Podcast Addict, and Stitcher. Check out our ‘Inscrutable’ newsletter for thoughts and rants. To support us and gain access to exclusive content, consider becoming a paid member of Uncertain on Substack. Follow @UncertainPod on your social media of choice.On the agenda: - Intro to Yascha [0:00-9:56]- Shout out to IRL pod encounters [9:57-11:38]- Humans: Naturally predisposed to difference [11:39-25:50]- How to Make Diverse Democracies Work [25:51-33:12]- The Problem of Fragmentation [33:13-45:29]- The Danger of Elites [45:30-54:30] - The Gerrymandering Arms Race [54:31-1:01:51]- The Secret Sauce of Oppression [1:01:52-1:19:41]- On Patriotism & Blindspots [1:19:42-1:25:18]Uncertain Things is hosted and produced by Adaam James Levin-Areddy and Vanessa M. Quirk. For more doomsday rumination, subscribe to: uncertain.substack.com. Get full access to Uncertain Things at uncertain.substack.com/subscribe