The Playbook Podcast

The most likely November election scenario is that Republicans win the House and Senate. On average since World War II, the president’s party loses 26 House seats and four Senate seats in a midterm election. The traditional indicators still point toward a typical midterm for Biden: low presidential approval rating (42%), a Republican advantage over Democrats on the generic ballot (44%-42%), and more than twice as many Democrats retiring from the House as Republicans (29-13).But Democrats are beginning to whisper about something that sounds laughable to many observers: Maybe they can win the midterms.Subscribe to POLITICO Playbook.Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

If you work on Capitol Hill, you’ve probably heard about “Dear White Staffers.” It’s an Instagram account that started as a place where aides of color on the Hill — a place dominated by white lawmakers and staff — could express their frustrations. But it’s expanded beyond that to become a go-to hub where anonymous staffers name and shame bad bosses and colleagues, and complain about absurdly long workdays, gender discrimination allegations, salaries so low they rely on food stamps to eat, generally toxic workplace behavior and an endemic lack of diversity. Playbook Deep Dive: Why Stephanie Cutter says Dems need a new SCOTUS strategyRaghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Republicans have been all over the map lately in their Supreme Court messaging. Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) called President Joe Biden's vow to only consider Black women for the vacancy “affirmative action.” Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said Biden doing so during the campaign was “clumsy” and risked further politicizing perceptions of the high court. And Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) welcomed Biden’s bid to diversify the Supreme Court, saying “it’s about time” it looked more like America.So what gives?Subscribe to POLITICO Playbook.Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

The center of legislative intrigue on Capitol Hill is bipartisan election reform.“That’s on a hot track right now,” Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said Monday. But as talks heat up to overhaul the Electoral Count Act, President Joe Biden is out in the cold — a bystander out of sync with both parties in Congress.Administration officials are deeply engaged in a gamut of other bills snaking through Congress. Russia sanctions? “We are working very closely with Congress,” press secretary Jen Psaki said Monday. Trying to unstick Build Back Better? “There’s a lot of discussion among members, their staffs, committees” and “we’re engaged in those as well.” Ditto for the government funding bill that must be passed by Feb. 18, and the China competitiveness bill under negotiation. Subscribe to POLITICO Playbook.Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Lawmakers return from recess this week to a massive February to-do list before President Joe Biden's March 1 State of the Union address. And the pressure is on: The White House and vulnerable House Democrats are desperate to quickly pass a $250 billion package aimed at boosting manufacturing and relieving supply-side constraints — a win they’d love the president to be able to trumpet at his big speech.But Congress also has to avert a government shutdown and possibly begin vetting a Supreme Court nominee. And that’s to say nothing about trying to resuscitate Build Back Better. Can they do all this in a few weeks?Subscribe to POLITICO Playbook.Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

TV doc turned Senate hopeful Mehmet Oz met with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell at the NRSC headquarters earlier this month to lay out why he thinks he can win in the swing state of Pennsylvania. In normal times, such a meeting between a candidate and party bosses would be as pro forma as they come. But needless to say, these are not normal times in the GOP. Playbook's Tara Palmeri is here to explain.Plus, the latest in Ukraine and what's next for SCOTUS.Listen to POLITICO Playbook Deep Dive: A former NATO ambassador gets inside Putin’s headRaghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

For weeks, Joe Biden's presidency has been dragged down by a stalled agenda, spiraling inflation, lousy poll numbers and an angry base accusing him of not delivering on his promises.Wednesday delivered a much-needed jolt with the news that Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer will retire at the end of this term. It’s a chance for the White House to pivot from the spate of bad news and rally depressed Democratic voters. Perhaps more importantly, it presents a chance for Biden to prove to Black voters — who rescued his 2020 campaign — that he can deliver for them.Subscribe to POLITICO Playbook.Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Frustration with Chuck Schumer leadership strategy is privately simmering among some Hill Democrats. We talked to a half-dozen senior Democratic staffers in both chambers Monday night and heard a variation of the same complaint from each of them: that Schumer’s ploy to isolate Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) on Build Back Better and then voting rights has only set the party back in achieving its goals.Subscribe to POLITICO Playbook.Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

With Congress out of town and President Joe Biden’s legislative agenda paused, Washington will be dominated by Ukraine-Russia news this week.Some major developments on Ukraine in the past 24 hours:— Early this morning, NATO announced a buildup in Eastern Europe: “NATO Allies are putting forces on standby and sending additional ships and fighter jets to NATO deployments in eastern Europe, reinforcing Allied deterrence and defence as Russia continues its military build-up in and around Ukraine.” More from Reuters— The State Department on Sunday ordered all family members of U.S. government employees at the embassy in Kyiv to leave the country immediately, and it authorized the departure of some other embassy personnel. State also issued a new travel advisory for Ukraine: “Do Not Travel due to the increased threat of Russian military action.” Americans in Ukraine “should consider departing now.” — Top Pentagon officials, per the NYT’s Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt, presented Biden with options to send “several thousand U.S. troops, as well as warships and aircraft, to NATO allies in the Baltics and Eastern Europe.”Subscribe to POLITICO Playbook.Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Former President Donald Trump has floated the idea of doling out dual endorsements in some of the key midterm races as he becomes increasingly suspicious of his advisers who are pushing competing candidates. The GOP kingmaker-in-chief has grown so distrustful of all the advice he’s getting from various aides — and so wary of being lured into picking the wrong horse — that he’s floated an idea that would essentially dilute his endorsement. Subscribe to Playbook Deep Dive: Cedric Richmond on Biden's turnaround planRaghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.