The Playbook Podcast

Playbook editor Mike DeBonis and deputy editor Zack Stanton break down the weekend in politics, including the Republican Jewish Coalition conference in Las Vegas, NV. “2024 Republican rivals put Trump on notice,” by Alex Isenstadt in Las Vegas: “If former President Donald Trump thought his early 2024 announcement would cow prospective Republican primary rivals into submission, he clearly miscalculated.“At this weekend’s Republican Jewish Coalition conference, a parade of ambitious Republicans hit all the notes that politicians eyeing future campaigns for the White House typically do. Their tones and messages varied — few called out Trump by name — but collectively they made clear they are not going to back down to the former president after a third consecutive poor election with him at the helm.What the contenders sound like: “Mike Pompeo, Trump’s hand-picked secretary of State and CIA director, warned that for Republicans to win elections, they can’t simply ‘go on Fox News or send tweets.’ Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who ran Trump’s transition, said Republicans were losing because ‘Donald Trump has put himself before everybody else.’“Nikki Haley, Trump’s U.N. ambassador who said last year she wouldn’t run if her former boss did, has apparently changed her mind. She used her Saturday evening speech here to say she was looking at running in a ‘serious way,’ and to call for ‘a younger generation to lead across the board.’ …“‘He’s not going to have the financial support he had anymore, he’s not going to have the internal support that he had before,’ said New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, whose state hosts the first-in-the-nation GOP primary. ‘And so therefore, there’s opportunity there. That political weakness is blood in the water for some folks.’”Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletterRaghu Manavalan is the Host and Senior Editor of POLITICO's Playbook Daily Briefing.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

On Wednesday night, just before 11 p.m., Nancy Pelosi's longtime spokesperson Drew Hammill announced on Twitter that today, the speaker will finally announce her plans for the future — putting an end to mounting speculation about whether she’ll retire (a possibility Hammill has batted away), stay on as the top House Democrat or step down from leadership but continue to serve in Congress.“@SpeakerPelosi has been overwhelmed by calls from colleagues, friends and supporters,” Hammill wrote. “This evening, the Speaker monitored returns in the three remaining critical states. The Speaker plans to address her future plans tomorrow to her colleagues. Stay tuned.”The tweet came just a few hours after the House was called in favor of Republicans — sending the rumor mill already churning over Pelosi’s future into warp drive. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletterRaghu Manavalan is the Host and Senior Editor of POLITICO's Playbook Daily Briefing.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

You’ve heard allies of Rep. Kevin McCarthy say it a gazillion times — and they’ll say it another gazillion times over before the House speaker vote in January: You can’t beat somebody with nobody.But what if history repeats itself? What if McCarthy, as in his 2015 bid for the speakership, fails to appease the renegade right and falls short of the 218 votes he needs to seize the gavel?With 31 House Republicans spurning McCarthy in Tuesday’s nominating vote — and with McCarthy likely able to afford no more than three or four defections based on current election returns — the question is more than academic. To be clear, Team McCarthy and most GOP lawmakers tell us they believe the California Republican will get 218 — eventually. But if he can’t, Playbook co-author Rachael Bade stops by the show to discuss the most likely alternative members mentioned during our travels on the Hill this week.Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletterRaghu Manavalan is the Host and Senior Editor of POLITICO's Playbook Daily Briefing.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

As the Republican Party wrestles with whether it should stick with its three current leaders — Donald Trump, Kevin McCarthy and Mitch McConnell — today is crucial, especially for the first two. McCarthy faces a vote of House Republicans on whether he will be their nominee for speaker in January. He should easily pass that test, but the margin will tell us how much trouble he’s in. (More on McCarthy below.)And then tonight at 9 p.m., Trump is scheduled to announce his third campaign for president. The best way to understand the context of this announcement is to take a spin through the last 24 hours of Trump news. The big takeaway is that the movement on the right to abandon Trump is the strongest it’s been since the days after Jan. 6, 2021. (But, then again, it wasn’t very strong back then.)Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletterRaghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook Daily Briefing.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

For Republicans, Festivus comes early this year. In fact, it starts today at 4:30 p.m.That’s when House Republicans kick off their candidate forum for leadership positions next Congress — the first formal event in what is expected to be a weeklong, party-wide Airing of Grievances following Republicans’ abysmal Election Day performance. Plus Mitch McConnell, we hear, is confident of his own reelection as leader — even as he faces mounting pushback from Trump allies in the chamber. On Sunday night, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) became the latest Republican to back a delay of Wednesday’s scheduled leadership elections — citing the Dec. 6 Georgia runoff.And Trump’s scheduled Tuesday campaign announcement is still moving full steam ahead despite fellow Republicans begging him to hold off in light of the pending Georgia contest.GOP drama aside, Speaker Nancy Pelosi might actually be the pivotal character of the week. With control of the House still in the balance, House Democrats have been left twiddling their thumbs as they await a long-anticipated retirement announcement — or news that she plans to seek another term as leader.Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletterRaghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook Daily Briefing.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

When John Boehner suddenly retired in 2015, members of the House Freedom Caucus showed up at speaker-in-waiting Kevin McCarthy’s office with a list of demands: In exchange for their support, they wanted McCarthy to name one of their own to a senior leadership position and embrace rules changes that empowered conservatives. If he refused, they told him, they would band together to block him from securing the needed 218 votes to be speaker. But McCarthy was unwilling to subjugate his power in order to appease a splinter faction, and ultimately, the California Republican dropped his bid for his dream job, paving the way for Paul Ryan's rise. Yet seven years later, McCarthy once again finds his dream held hostage by the same group of hardliners. Thanks to the GOP’s lackluster midterm performance, he is seeking to preside over what appears likely to be an extremely thin majority — a scenario that hands massive leverage to the far right.And on Tuesday night at the election watch party for Nevada Democrats on the Vegas Strip, aides to Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto were cautiously optimistic about her prospects for victory.The campaign’s main concern was whether their Republican opponent, Adam Laxalt, would prematurely declare victory and throw the post-election vote-counting period into chaos. As Laxalt’s strong rural vote came in, he overtook Cortez Masto in the count, and Democrats’ concerns increased. But so far their fears have been misplaced. In 2022, this counts as a positive development for American elections. Candidates are largely refraining from using the seesaw nature of vote-counting to sow doubts about the results, as Trump infamously did in 2020.What hasn’t changed since 2020 is that Nevada (and Arizona and California and many other states) take days to finish counting. While still trailing Laxalt, Cortez Masto’s chances of victory improved Wednesday, with the majority of the outstanding vote consisting of mail ballots from Nevada’s urban centers, which are Democratic strongholds.Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletterRaghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook Daily Briefing.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Let’s start with Joe Biden. A midterm is a referendum on the president. By all historic measures, voters should have handed Biden’s party a massive rebuke. Inflation is at historic levels, crime is up, Biden’s approval is underwater, Democrats have one-party control. The party of recent presidents in similar circumstances lost between 40 and 63 House seats.And yet here’s where things stand this morning:— In the House, Republicans are expected to gain control the chamber, but well short of both historical averages and pre-election predictions. Addressing supporters early this morning — hours after Republicans thought they would have victory in hand — Kevin McCarthy could only promise, “When you wake up tomorrow, we will be in the majority.” (Like his prior prediction that Republicans would gain 60 seats, that, too, has failed to pan out.)— In the Senate, the outcome hinges on Nevada, where incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto fell behind her GOP challenger Adam Laxalt this morning, and Georgia, where Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock is ahead by a hair but the race is likely headed for a runoff on Dec. 6. Republicans need to win both races to take control of the Senate. (Wisconsin and Arizona haven’t been called, but the incumbents — Republican Ron Johnson and Democrat Mark Kelly, respectively — are ahead in both states.)Many of the (plausible) outcomes predicted by top GOP officials didn’t materialize. There was no massive shift of the Hispanic vote toward the GOP. There was no surge of hidden Trump voters. There was no widespread takeover of deep blue House territory. There was no expansion of the Senate map into New Hampshire, Colorado and Washington, where incumbent Democrats cruised to reelection. The governor of New York won easily.There was no red wave. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletterRaghu Manavalan is the Host and Senior Editor of POLITICO's Playbook Daily Briefing.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Every ad has been cut. Every speech has been delivered. Every poll has been taken. And now we wait for the voters to decide. Needless to say, the stakes are high. Inflation is at a 40-year peak, abortion rights are on the ballot, rising interest rates are stoking recession fears and election deniers are on the cusp of taking office.But no one has more riding on the outcome than President Joe Biden. Throughout all the headwinds he has faced in the two years and one day since he clinched the presidency, he had House and Senate majorities and experienced congressional leaders backing him up.Now that backstop is seriously at risk. A Republican House threatens to Roto-Root his administration with subpoenas while turning routine spending bills into high-stakes standoffs. A GOP Senate could compound the misery, hamstringing his ability to appoint judges, ambassadors and Cabinet officials.So how is Bidenworld facing this moment of reckoning? By essentially arguing that, whatever happens, it could have been much worse.Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletterRaghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook Daily Briefing.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

We’re truly in the home stretch with one day to go until Election Day. That means we are running out of precious time to deploy our favorite campaign season cliches. So allow us to note: It all comes down to turnout. And as we all know, the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day...Playbook editor Mike DeBonis and Playbook co-author Ryan Lizza preview the crucial week ahead, including, what should, actually, constitute a red wave?In the House, the most likely outcome is that this will be a typical midterm in which the president’s party loses seats. The modern average is a loss of 27 House seats. Three of the last four presidents did much worse in their first midterms: Bill Clinton lost 54 seats, Barack Obama lost 63 seats, and Donald Trump lost 40 seats. Every election brings with it confident predictions of some enduring new majority. George W. Bush and Barack Obama were both seen as ushering in eras of dominance for their respective parties. Donald Trump’s election supposedly meant the end of the Democratic Party’s presidential prospects. Some liberals say that the 2018 and 2020 anti-Trump surges prove that a stable center-left coalition exists to extinguish MAGA. The challenge after Tuesday is to keep two things in mind: There can be a massive change in policy direction (the House flipping) with only a small change in the electorate (less than 5% of House seats changing hands).Ryan's Playbook Deep Dive interview with Lynn Vavreck: Hindsight is 20/20Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletterRaghu Manavalan is the Host and Senior Editor of POLITICO's Playbook Daily Briefing.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Oprah Winfrey endorsed Democrat John Fetterman  in the ultratight Pennsylvania Senate race during a virtual GOTV event Thursday night. More than just another celebrity endorsement, it’s a pointed snub by Winfrey of Mehmet Oz, the celebrity doctor she single-handedly brought to national prominence."If I lived in Pennsylvania,” she said, “I would've already cast my vote for John Fetterman, for many reasons.”The endorsement was in the works for months, our Holly Otterbein reported late last night: “Fetterman's orbit knew how powerful a nod from Winfrey would be, and it worked behind the scenes to court her. The Fettterman campaign made a direct appeal to her for a meeting, according to a person familiar with the outreach.”And Steve Shepard shares his penultimate Election Forecast update, with ratings changes in three Senate, 13 House and four governor races. All but one are moving toward Republicans. The Senate … The overall landscape continues to be in “Toss-Up” territory, but Republicans appear to have a growing upside: With six races now coin-flips, an even split of those races would be enough to secure a GOP majority, while a sweep would hand the party 54 seats.Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletterRaghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook Daily Briefing.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.