35 West

Voters in Brazil joined the trend of upending expectations by giving Jair Bolsonaro 46% in the first round of the presidential elections. Is this jolt part of the global antiestablishment movement, or is it uniquely Brazilian? Gabrielle Trebat, a former Treasury Department official and a Brazil expert at McLarty Associates, provides details on the political landscape and insights on Bolsonero’s potential policies, including his almost complete lack of knowledge of the U.S.

Senator Bill Cassidy (R-LA) talks about his recent trip to Guatemala and Mexico, and discusses U.S. efforts to help fight corruption, strengthen borders, and to go after narcotics traffickers. The real hope, he believes, is in  strengthening the regional economies through trade and development, a trend that also delivers economic benefits to states like Louisiana.

Once South America’s richest country has now collapsed. About 2.5 million Venezuelans have fled their country in the last few years, putting unprecedented pressure on overwhelmed neighbors like Colombia and Brazil. Francisco Santos, Colombian Ambassador to the U.S., and David Smolansky, Chair of an Organization of American States Working Group, give their take.

Has everything gone wrong since Trump came along? Regardless of whether Canada stays, walks or sprints away from a NAFTA deal, the experience has forced Canada to look at its entire relationship with the U.S. Christopher Sands of SAIS is back to talk about the effects on trade, travel, defense, Canadian nationalism, and his consumption of Molson.

How will the enhanced “rule of origin” content requirements affect the North American automotive industry, especially in Mexico? Dr. Luz Maria de la Mora, a former Mexican trade negotiator, explains what Mexico got and what it gave up on autos, dispute resolution, and other proposed changes to NAFTA. Finally, what does this do to Mexico’s relationship with Canada?

Venezuela is currently experiencing 44 million percent (not a typo) annual inflation. Apart from forcing everyone to do more math, what is the Maduro regime doing about it? Unfortunately, nothing that matters, according to Professor Ricardo Hausmann from Harvard’s JFK School of Government. Moises Rendon of CSIS joins us to describe the human cost, including Venezuelans fleeing their country, starvation, and misery. Both predict that nothing will improve without a new government, but even then, it will take at least a decade to put Venezuela back together.

Crisis, scandal, and politics in Argentina. Does bad news for Cristina Kirchner equal good times for Mauricio Macri? Benjamin Gedan of the Wilson Center argues that Argentina’s very own Car Wash scandal – complete with couriers carrying cash to the Kirchners - gives President Macri a short reprieve, but that voters will hold him accountable for a tumbling economy in next year’s presidential elections.

Will Andrés Manuel López Obrador the “leftwing firebrand” or the “realistic pragmatist” show up for work on December 1?   Mexico expert Duncan Wood of the Wilson Center helps sort out Mexican president-elect AMLO’s mandate and governing philosophy, and predicts that renewed Central American migration will trigger AMLO’s first bilateral crisis with the U.S.

Once again, a NAFTA deal may be close – or not.  Tossing in tariffs, our experts Scott Miller and Chris Sands return to tell us why the Mexicans are up, the Canadians are down, and why farmers and car manufacturers are out of luck. Do we have a deal or no deal before the U.S. mid-term elections and the new Mexican government takes power, and if not, does it matter?

What kind of workers does the North American economy need, and how will it get them?  Former U.S. diplomat Anthony Wayne points out the “alarming skills gap,” in the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, the rapid technological changes, and the need for the education system, private sector, and governments to come up with a better process.  Even setting aside the national politics – which are difficult – this will not be easy.