This Week in Carbon

In this episode of This Week in Carbon, host Edward Smith engages with Clinton Libbey, founder of Kumi Analytics, to explore the transformative role of satellite imagery and AI in carbon markets. Clinton shares his extensive background in remote sensing, detailing his journey from working with NASA's early image processing systems to founding Kumi Analytics. The conversation delves into the complexities of using satellite data for environmental monitoring, particularly in carbon projects, and highlights the importance of deep learning in extracting valuable insights from satellite imagery. Clinton emphasizes the need for accurate environmental intelligence to improve the integrity and transparency of carbon credits, especially in light of past scandals in the carbon market.Key highlights:Satellite imagery is the richest source of information.Deep learning is crucial for extracting value from complex satellite data.Combining different satellite types enhances data accuracy.Mangroves are critical for carbon sequestration but face significant threats.High-resolution data is essential for accurate carbon monitoring.Chapters:00:00 - Introduction and Background02:14 - Clinton Libbey's Journey in Remote Sensing05:08 - Deep Learning and Satellite Imagery07:11 - The Shift to Carbon Markets10:53 - Types of Satellites for Environmental Monitoring16:29 - Data Fusion and Ecosystem Variations19:27 - Blue Carbon and Mangrove Restoration25:08 - Challenges in Blue Carbon Projects28:56 - Estimating Below Ground Carbon31:14 - Kumi's Approach to Mangrove Restoration34:26 - Collaboration with Private Developers36:24 - The Future of Digital MRV40:23 - Interoperability and Standardization in Carbon Markets46:08 - Conclusion and Key Insights

In this episode of This Week in Carbon, host Edward Smith and regular guest Rene Velasquez sit down with Marc Stuart, founding managing partner of Allotrope Partners. He shares his extensive journey in the carbon markets, beginning in 1993 and leading to the founding of EcoSecurities. He discusses the evolution of carbon markets, the challenges faced during boom and bust cycles, and the intersection of compliance and voluntary markets. Marc emphasizes the importance of decarbonizing supply chains for corporates and the role of storytelling in the voluntary market. He also highlights the potential of digitalization and AI in improving efficiency in carbon credit issuance, while acknowledging the complexities of agriculture in decarbonization efforts.Key takeaways:• Marc Stuart's journey in carbon markets began in 1993 during his PhD.• EcoSecurities was founded to create a third-party certification system for carbon credits.• The carbon market has experienced significant boom and bust cycles due to supply and demand imbalances.• Compliance markets are evolving, and there's a growing intersection with voluntary markets.• The future of carbon markets will depend on consistent demand signals and innovative financial instruments.• Decarbonizing supply chains is crucial for large corporates in the current market.• The role of third-party ratings in carbon projects is complex and evolving.• Digitalization and AI are expected to improve efficiency in carbon credit issuance.• The agriculture sector presents unique challenges for decarbonization efforts.• The importance of storytelling in the voluntary carbon market cannot be underestimated.

In this episode of This Week in Carbon, host Edward Smith and weekly guest Rene Velasquez, sits down with Gerald Prolman, Executive Chairman of Everland, who brings decades of experience in carbon markets to the conversation. They dive deep into the groundbreaking Indigenous Amazon Outcome Bond—a innovative initiative designed to channel upfront capital into Indigenous-led forest conservation projects across the greater Amazon. The discussion covers Everland's critical role in supporting and marketing these high-integrity REDD+ efforts, the often polarizing impact of media narratives on voluntary carbon markets, and the enduring potential of REDD+ as a powerful tool against climate change. Gerald highlights the essential role of community leadership and benefit-sharing, the urgent need for immediate action to safeguard the world's remaining forests, and the rapidly evolving dynamics of carbon credits in today's market. Takeaways ·       Gerald Prolman has over 46 years of experience in sustainability.·       Everland connects forest communities with capital for conservation projects.·       The Indigenous Amazon Outcome Bond aims to fund indigenous-led projects.·       Media narratives have significantly impacted the perception of carbon markets.·       REDD+ projects are essential for immediate climate action.·       Trust and transparency are crucial for the success of carbon markets.·       Indigenous communities play a vital role in forest conservation.·       The future of carbon markets will involve both avoidance and removals.·       Equitable Earth was created as a response to market challenges.·       Indonesia's approach to carbon markets may serve as a model for other countries.If you would like to watch the full video of the concert, you can find it here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSRE5Lv60q4&t=9s

In this episode of This Week in Carbon, hosts Edward Smith and Rene Velasquez are joined by Robert Höglund, manager of the Milkywire Climate Transformation Fund, co-founder of CDR.fyi, and policy advisor on carbon removal (including SBTi and EU expert groups).Robert brings deep expertise from his NGO background to managing one of the most catalytic corporate climate funds, sharing candid insights on scaling impact across durable CDR, decarbonization, and nature protection.We discuss: • Robert’s journey: From Oxfam climate policy to co-founding CDR.fyi and leading Milkywire’s fund • Milkywire Climate Transformation Fund: $17M+ allocated across 60+ projects, catalytic pre-purchases, and internal carbon fees • 2025 CDR trends: VC slowdown, concentrated buyers (Microsoft dominance), and the gap between needed scale and financing reality • Corporate demand dynamics: Push for near-term operational net-zero, scope 1-2 incentives, and why long-term arguments fall flat with CFOs • Removals vs. reductions debate: Durable CDR for willful fossil continuation (e.g., aviation), cost-effectiveness of avoidance/nature, and balanced portfolios • SBTi net-zero draft critique: Steps forward on beyond-value-chain mitigation but delays and weakening of durable CDR requirements • EU 2040 target & policy signals: Massive potential demand via international credits, buyers club prospects, and risks of delayed supply • Outlook & incentives: Tough years ahead for durable CDR, the need for labels/claims restoration, and barriers that must fall to avoid lost momentum Essential listening for anyone shaping corporate climate strategy or tracking carbon removal markets—this episode cuts through the hype with pragmatic analysis and forward-looking views.

In this episode of This Week in Carbon, hosts Edward Smith and Rene Velasquez are joined by Dale Hardcastle (Partner, Bain & Company – Singapore, Energy Transition & Asia) and Henning Huenteler (Partner, Bain & Company – Amsterdam, Sustainability & Carbon Markets), two of the sharpest minds tracking corporate climate action and carbon markets globally. Coming off a chaotic 2025, Dale and Henning pull no punches on what actually changed this year—and what it means as we head into 2026.We discuss:• 2025 in review: from ESG backlash and Larry Fink’s silence to the biggest Climate Week ever and a surprisingly pragmatic COP30• Bain’s AI-powered analysis of 35,000+ CEO statements: sustainability mentions are down, but business-value framing has doubled since 2018• The global marginal abatement cost curve: ~25% of emissions already profitable to cut today, another ~33% get there by 2035• Policy whiplash: US 180° pivot, EU walking back overreach, Asia’s quiet but relentless march on energy security and green growth• AI’s terrifying power hunger: data centres potentially adding 800+ Mt CO₂e/year by 2035 and why efficiency gains aren’t even close to keeping up• Carbon removal reality check: 60 Mt of committed corporate demand by 2030 vs. only ~20 Mt credible durable supply without urgent off-take signals• The hyperscaler bottleneck: why Microsoft, Google, Stripe & co. can’t scale CDR alone—and what it really takes to unlock the next wave of buyers and capital• Asia’s emerging carbon-market leadership: Singapore’s hub ambitions, Indonesia reopening its market, Vietnam unlocking direct PPAs• 2030s outlook: the countdown to 2030 targets is now real for CEOs, the slow-but-steady maturation of carbon markets, and why both guests remain genuinely optimistic

In this episode of This Week in Carbon, host Rene Velasquez (filling in for Edward over Thanksgiving) is joined by Naomi Chloe Swickard – a 20-year veteran of the carbon and conservation space, former leader of Verra’s REDD+ program, architect of the world’s first jurisdictional REDD+ framework, and key contributor to the new consolidated VM0048 methodology. Naomi delivers a candid, insider masterclass on where forests and carbon markets actually stand at the end of 2025, why progress is happening outside COP, and what it will really take to scale high-integrity nature-based solutions.We discuss:• Naomi’s unexpected entry into the market (a chance meeting at a bar in Thailand) and two decades shaping REDD+• COP Berlin (“the Forest COP”) debrief: symbolic wins, missed opportunities, and why the real action is now beyond the UNFCCC• The capitalism paradox: growth vs. climate, tragedy of the commons, and the lack of enforcement teeth• REDD+ evolution: from VM0007 to VM0048, jurisdictional nesting, risk-map allocation, and the first issuances finally landing• Market reality check: delayed supply, ICVCM approval, green-hushing, and quiet rebuilding of demand• Project vs. jurisdictional REDD: why both are essential and must co-exist indefinitely• The permanence debate, the integrity-vs-scale trap, and why “perfect” is preventing near-term climate impact• Standing-forest protection vs. the removals renaissance: where capital is flowing and where it’s still missing• Clarity gaps: SBTI’s new guidance, Article 6.2 momentum, debt-for-nature swaps, and emerging financing models• 2026–2030 outlook: jurisdictional acceleration, blue carbon & peatlands, contribution claims, and the turbulent road to a workable, scalable market

In this episode of This Week in Carbon, hosts Edward Smith and Rene Velasquez are joined by Siddhanth Jayaram, Sricharann Seshadri and Neelesh Sachdeva, co-founders of Equilibrium, together with a legendary surprise appearance from carbon market OG Nick D’Alleva (co-founder of APX/Vera). From late-night Skype auctions worth millions to building India’s most diverse high-integrity removal portfolio — this one’s packed with history and forward vision.We discuss: • Surprise drop-in from Nick D’Alleva: Wild stories from the early VCM days, near-miss million-dollar transfers, and why he’s calling the end of the 2022–2025 down-cycle • Nick’s market forecast: Next explosive up-cycle starts late 2026, peaks 2028–2030 — bigger than 2020–2022 — driven by lower rates, removal demand, and high-quality supply • Equilibrium’s origin story: Two ex-VC/finance guys betting everything on smallholder-led carbon removal in India • Going full-stack: How they layered capital markets thinking + carbon science + on-ground ops with 125 million smallholder farmers at the core • Portfolio deep-dive: Regenerative ag (VM42), agroforestry (VM47), mangroves (VM33), biochar (Puro + Isometric), and live enhanced rock weathering pilots • Why tech alone failed on integrity — and what actually works • Capital stack wars: Inverted pyramid vs. forest ecosystem metaphors, blended finance breakthroughs, and India’s first major USAID-backed CDR transaction • Registry evolution: For-profit registries (Isometric, Puro, Rainbow) forcing innovation and better developer experience • Buffer pools need a full rethink — insurance as buyer of first resort? • Voluntary → compliance bridging: Who bears liability when credits go compliance-eligible? • The massive Series A/seed funding gap in carbon — and how Equilibrium convinced top-tier VCs anyway • Advice to buyers still on the sidelines: “Shoot bullets now before you have to fire cannons later” • Why early corporate action today is the smartest risk-mitigation play for tomorrow’s compliance reality.

In this episode of This Week in Carbon, host Edward Smith is joined by Melissa Lindsay, Founder & CEO of Emstream and Emsurge, a veteran with over a decade broking LNG and building trading platforms. Melissa shares her journey from LNG’s infancy to pioneering wholesale infrastructure for carbon markets, offering a deep dive into the challenges and opportunities shaping liquidity and market maturity.We discuss: • Melissa’s career path: From Global head of LNG at Tullett Prebon to launching Emsurge and pivoting into carbon amid COVID • LNG-carbon parallels: Physical-to-financial evolution, index-linked pricing, and off-take structures • Market dynamics: Oversupply vs. demand, “art market” pricing, vintage decay, and charismatic credit trends • Infrastructure innovation: Hybrid platform with real-time bids/offers, broker facilitation, and agnostic settlement • Tech partnerships: Calyx/Sylvera ratings filters, automated KYC, and front-end marketplaces for Africa • Article 6 operationalization: Host-country LOAs, corresponding adjustments, and non-NDC project vacuums • CBAM catalysis: Upstream carbon taxes in Africa/Asia and protectionism’s rise • 2030 outlook: M&A consolidation, CORSIA/J-REDD dominance, futures indices, and AI-driven DMRV-to-marketplace

In this episode of This Week in Carbon, hosts Edward Smith and Rene Velasquez are joined by Chris Leeds, Head of Carbon Markets Development at Standard Chartered Bank and board member of the Integrity Council (ICVCM) — a 20-year veteran who helped launch the EU ETS and co-founded Climate Impact X.Chris delivers a masterclass on scaling carbon markets with integrity, finance, and policy. We discuss: • Chris’s journey: From trading CDM credits at Merrill Lynch to supporting Standard Chartered’s CEO on the Taskforce to Scale Voluntary Carbon Markets • ICVCM’s Core Carbon Principles (CCPs): The “two-tick” assessment driving a race to the top amid proliferating standards (Gold Standard, GCC, Puro, Isometric, and more) • Blurring voluntary & compliance lines: Singapore’s tax offset, EU ETS crediting mechanisms, and the shift to “project-based” (not voluntary) credits • Standardization as rocket fuel: Why fungible contracts, indices, and liquid secondary markets unlock institutional debt at 70% LTV• Bankability unlocked: Off-take agreements, portfolio aggregation, and turning carbon projects into infrastructure-grade assets (not VC bets) • Finance masterclass: Debt needs revenue certainty — fixed-price/floor offtakes, digitized MRV, and replacement cost clauses for risk management • Asia’s carbon boom: Singapore’s deliberate ecosystem, Indonesia’s presidential decree, Vietnam’s dual supply/demand play, and China’s 5GT ETS eyeing international credits • Global momentum: Brazil, Japan (GX League → ETS), Australia, and the Coalition to Grow Carbon Marketslaunching shared principles at COP • Cost-effective abatement: Why chasing $200/ton in Europe is illogical — methane, avoided deforestation, and clean cooking need priority • Scale & speed: Forward purchase agreements, private sector filling the $1.3T gap, and carbon as a proxy for biodiversity & nature finance• Market resilience: Surviving hype cycles, entering the slope of enlightenment, and gearing up for 2030 demand surge

In this episode of This Week in Carbon, hosts Edward Smith and Rene Velasquez are joined by Alfredo Nicastro, Global Head of Carbon Solutions at StoneX, a veteran with over 20 years in climate finance and carbon markets. Alfredo shares his journey from a civil and environmental engineer in Brazil to a leader in global carbon solutions, offering a deep dive into the challenges and opportunities shaping decarbonization and market evolution.We discuss:  Alfredo’s career path: From Brazil’s hydropower and waste management to shaping carbon markets at StoneX Decarbonizing supply chains: Growing buyer pressure for carbon-neutral commodities like cotton and clothing Insetting vs. offsetting: Why agriculture and metals lean toward insetting, with offsets for residual emissions Carbon pricing evolution: From 10 instruments in 2005 to 80 covering 28% of global emissions in 2025 Policy insights: Chile’s carbon tax model, the need for price transparency, and risks of fragmented regulations Article 6 progress: Optimism for 6.2 bilateral agreements and hopes for 6.4 clarity at COP30 Climate urgency: Breaching 1.5°C early, AI-driven energy demands, and the need for tech-based solutions like methane capture Market maturity: Portfolio-based risk management, ratings, insurance, and CORSIA’s looming supply short squeeze