The Vancouver Life Real Estate Podcast

The podcast discusses the increasing activity in Vancouver's real estate market due to anticipated rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. It explores the impact of mortgage rates on real estate sentiment and compares the markets in Toronto and Vancouver. The potential consequences of a new municipal tax in Toronto are also examined, along with the effects of taxes, rental market, immigration, and property assessments. The speakers share personal experiences with housing assessments and offer guidance on challenging assessment values.

In our first episode of 2024, we dive into the December stats to wrap up 2023 and present our predictions for the year ahead. This podcast episode covers two exciting topics: the year-end Vancouver Housing statistics and our predictions for 2024, focusing on economic drivers and real estate trends.Starting with the December stats, noting that total sales reached 1,345, marking a 3.2% increase from December 2022. While somewhat better than last December, this figure is still 36.4% below the 10-year seasonal average. This continues to indicate a decreasing trend in sales. New listings in December 2023 were 1,327, reflecting a 10% increase compared to the previous year but still 22.7% below the 10-year seasonal average!The inventory stands at 7,594, showing a dramatic 43% month-over-month decrease, this is big - even for December. This low level of inventory historically leads to a bullish year in prices, as seen in 2016, 2017, 2021, and 2022. The sales-to-active ratio is 18%, up 1.7% which is a little baffling considering the notable drop in sales and continues to highlight a year that never saw a buyer's market! Looking to prices, price dropped to $1,168,700, down $16,400 or 1.4%, marking the fifth consecutive month of price decreases and a 3.6% drop overall. Days on market have increased to 24, up 4 days from the previous month.Transitioning to predictions for 2024, we dive into the would-be economic drivers for our region and what that will do to real estate forecasts. Despite facing recessionary headwinds and what will likely be a further slowing in the economy before the BoC reveals their much anticipated rate cuts, there's increasing optimism, particularly in real estate sentiment looking at the latter half of 2024.In the almost impossible world of real estate forecasting, we are anticipating a much different year from 2023. Dan and I go through the major economic drivers for 2024 which help provide insights into the local economic arena that will dictate how the real estate sector performs and predictions for it. In this part of the episode we delve into interest rate predictions, inventory and home price predictions - we even look at which markets will outperform the GVRD.The episode is packed with great content as we consider the notable trends, challenges, and opportunities that are expected to shape the real estate landscape in 2024. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 dan@thevancouverlife.com Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089 ryan@thevancouverlife.com www.thevancouverlife.com

In our latest episode, we ventured back in time to the start of 2023 to review the predications we made about how Real Estate in 2023 would unfold. Beginning with Marco economic drivers, global trends and then backing down into the local economic real estate market. We made bold predictions and share insights on various economic fronts some with great accuracy and others... without!For example, Covid was a huge topic at the start of 2023 and Ryan's foresight was intriguing, especially his anticipation of a second supply chain shutdown linked to another virus surge - However, the unfolding reality proved he couldn't have been more wrong but as he alludes to in the episode, he was also very happy about being wrong on this one! On a different note, Dan's accurate prediction of a world without more lockdowns demonstrated a more accurate understanding of the evolving situation.The war in Ukraine emerged as a focal point and while Ryan envisioned a time where the world could have come to Canada for it's vast amounts of energy resources. Unfortunately, governmental restrictions, moral high grounds and not a enough infrastructure built emerged as the limiting factors, overshadowing the potential he foresaw for a potential resource boom.Navigating the realm of quantitative easing and tightening, Dan's foresight proved accurate as he predicted a Quantitative Tightening (QT) scenario for the remainder of the year, resulting in a drop in Canada's money supply. We discussed the potential of a recession which brought mixed results from both of us. Dan's technical stance against a recession held true, although per capita data revealed a rise in unemployment. Conversely, Ryan prediction of a minor recession aligned with the actual outcome, including his predictions on GDP, inflation and wage growth fell ended up for more accurate than he anticipated.Immigration took center stage, surpassing the expectations outlined by both Dan and myself. The repercussions on rental numbers unfolded as predicted although neither of us saw rents rising by 8% on average before the end of the year. Turning our attention to the job market predictions framed a 5.2% unemployment rate, Dan's foresight on wage growth and unemployment rates proved remarkably close to reality. Ryan's slightly higher unemployment forecast may yet find equilibrium in future data but not by the end of this year!We looked closely at Inflation which was running at 6.8% during the initial predictions recording and mortgage rates saw a deviation from both of our forecasts, indicating the unpredictable nature of financial institutions and proving that no one can anticipate Tiff Macklem's strategy or the kinds of information the BoC will deem important at any given time. Stock market movements are currently near all-time highs as, which when you consider the quantitative tightening that took place over the last year, we're not sure anyone could have guessed the S&P 500 to experience a surge of this magnitude. From there we got into Vancouver Real Estate price prediction, immigration levels, federal, provincial and municipal policy changes and lastly which markets out performed the GVRD in 2023!Definitely tune into this entertaining episode and have a laugh with us as we found out where we went wrong but also what we got right as we hold ourselves (at times) embarrassingly accountable to our 2023 predictions. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 dan@thevancouverlife.com Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089 ryan@thevancouverlife.com www.thevancouverlife.com

In Canada, the third-quarter population growth has reached historic levels, with a quarterly increase of 431,000 people! This marks a 1.1% growth rate, the highest since 1957. The annual growth rate is 1.25 million people, or 3.2%! However, this growth contrasts with a 22% decrease in housing starts from the previous year, posing a significant challenge for government and developers amid a housing deficit and high interest rates. According to BMO, the current rate of population growth would necessitate 170,000 new housing units every three months.Alberta leads the country in population growth at 4.3%, contributing to record real estate prices in Calgary. The surge in population is predominantly in the Non-Permanent Resident (Non-PR) segment, which increased by 47% in three months, reaching a total of 2.5 million. This growth, along with other factors like infrastructure stress and rising rental rates, has raised concerns about sustainability and potential impacts on various sectors, including healthcare.Despite the remarkable population growth, there are indications that the trend may peak soon. Notably, there is a decline in net permanent population growth, with approximately 500,000 newcomers offset by 100,000 people to various locations around the globe. Additionally, the largest interprovincial migration loss in 20 years happened this year with 13,000 people leaving British Columbia.Factors such as a slowing job market and increased requirements for international students may contribute to a potential slowdown in population growth in the coming year. The job market has seen a significant decline from one million job vacancies to just over 600,000, a 40% decrease. Consumer insolvencies are on the rise, with a 26% year-over-year increase in October. Although this is still below pre-COVID levels, the dollar volume of these filings has surged by 90%. Business insolvencies are even more pronounced, spiking by 63% year-over-year, reaching the highest levels since 2011.In the mortgage and bond yield landscape, markets are anticipating significant cuts in 2024 potentially as much as 1.25% expected by the end of the year. Bond yields have steadily decreased, prompting major banks to consider deeper discounts on fixed-rate mortgages. Mortgage growth has been weak, growing only 3.4% year-over-year in October, but there are signs of stabilization and increased demand, particularly for variable-rate mortgages.However, the potential risks lie in the risk of re-acceleration in inflation, which could impact the Bank of Canada's decision-making on rate cuts. Although consumer spending and business insolvencies are expected to decrease, the overall health of the economy remains a concern. While Canada's debt levels are eye watering, Canadians actually have $6.5 dollars in assets for $1 of debt despite the pinch everyone is feeling, Canadians do have the ability to pay for housing, emphasizing their prioritization of mortgage payments even in challenging economic times. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 dan@thevancouverlife.com Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089 ryan@thevancouverlife.com www.thevancouverlife.com

The Federal Reserve's recent decision to maintain interest rates during their final meeting of the year has ignited discussions in financial circles. While the decision itself was expected, the surprise came with the central bankers' projections for 2024. The Fed now anticipates a total of 75 basis points in rate cuts next year, indicating a departure from earlier projections. This trend is mirrored by traders and economists in Canada, which are now pricing in 4-5 cuts in 2024, totalling 125 basis points, based on potential challenges for the Canadian economy as it seeks to balance growth and stability.The potential rate cuts have reverberated into the mortgage market, with bond yields dropping significantly. This has led to a reduction of over 40 basis points in fixed-rate mortgages, bringing them into the mid to high 5s. The improved affordability is a welcome change, as mortgage payments for a typical Canadian home have decreased for three consecutive months, totaling a $145 per month reduction. This shift is particularly significant given that housing affordability hit an all-time low in Q3, and the current developments offer a more positive outlook for prospective homebuyers.The rationale behind the anticipated rate cuts goes beyond the housing market and stems from a broader economic perspective. Canada, 20 months into a rate-hiking cycle, is grappling with weaker-than-expected GDP growth, evident in a Q3 decline of -1.1%. Economic concerns are further exacerbated by a decline in consumer confidence, rising unemployment rates, and a notable reduction in hours worked. Financial services, including banks, have seen a significant decline in employment, indicating a rapidly slowing economy. The implications of these economic challenges are prompting central banks to consider rate cuts as a potential stimulus for economic growth.Economist David Rosenberg's analysis provides additional context, suggesting that Canada may be heading into a recession with more severity than the United States. The inverted yield curve since July 2022 and Canadian banks tightening credit guidelines indicate a cautious outlook. Rosenberg argues that the government's reliance on debt and excessive house price inflation, coupled with an immigration boom, may be unsustainable, potentially leading to a challenging economic scenario. As the Bank of Canada contemplates rate cuts, the overall economic landscape calls for careful consideration and preparation for potential challenges in the coming year.As the economic landscape evolves, the real estate sector becomes a focal point for analysis. The Bank of Canada's consecutive decisions to hold rates over three meetings has stimulated a rising outlook in real estate sentiment. Despite consumer sentiment experiencing a decline, the real estate outlook has increased for four consecutive weeks since bottoming in November, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment. This could signify an early indicator of what might unfold in terms of sales volumes and prices as 2024 approaches, especially in light of the recent Fed hold and rate cut predictions.Cautiously optimistic may be the term for 2024 as rate cuts will all but certainly result in an increase in home sales and ultimately prices, though the central banks could then easily change their tone and increase rates again should overall exuberance increase too far.  _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 dan@thevancouverlife.com Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089 ryan@thevancouverlife.com www.thevancouverlife.com

This week's podcast has us looking into a number of pretty big changes taking place in our economy this month, along with a close examination of both the November Real Estate Stats for Vancouver and the impact of the decision by the BOC, to further hold rates.With the BoC having maintained interest rates at 5%, in line with expectations due to a slowing economy and decreasing inflation rates, marks the third consecutive hold, reminiscent of the pattern observed in 2020 when rates remained at 0.25% for almost two years! The current stability hints at a potentially stabilizing economic landscape, with attention shifting to the possibility of rate cuts in the new year.The decision to hold rates is influenced by a softer-than-expected October inflation reading at 3.1% y/y. Gasoline price declines, contributing to a 0.1% m/m drop in the headline index, were a key factor. Core inflation, which the BOC monitors, decelerated from 4.0% to 3.8%. The combination of falling inflation, a weakening labor market, and subdued economic growth indicates a further holding in rate hikes, with expectations of rate cuts as early as April next year.Arrears rates have increased slightly to 0.16%, with Saskatchewan having the highest rate at 0.58%. The podcast discusses the government's response to potential challenges in mortgage renewals through the "Canadian Mortgage Charter." However, it's noted that the charter lacks legal backing, presenting it more as a symbolic gesture than a concrete policy shift.The GDP fell by an annualized rate of 1.1% in Q3, below the BOC's expected 0.8% growth. Real GDP per capita has declined for a fifth consecutive quarter, indicating a weakening economy. Meanwhile, recent cooling in the bond market is anticipated to result in savings for those seeking fixed-rate mortgage products in the latter half of 2025 or 2026.Predictions about rate cuts are prevalent now, with markets pricing in 3 to 4 quarter-point cuts by the end of next year. While this may benefit some mortgage holders, there's also the potential negative impact on the economy, especially considering factors like job losses and negative GDP continue to get worse.Local November sales statistics for Vancouver didn't change much, noting a 4.7% sales volume increase from November 2022 but a significant drop in sales volume of 17% m/m. Inventory remains a central theme and a sales-to-active ratio officially indicating Vancouver is in a balanced market. Prices have seen a 1% decrease from October 2023, marking the fourth consecutive month of declines but still reflecting a 4.9% increase over November 2022.Tune in and get the full story on our ever-changing Vancouver real estate landscape.  _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 dan@thevancouverlife.com Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089 ryan@thevancouverlife.com www.thevancouverlife.com

This week we dive deep into the real estate landscapes of Toronto and Vancouver, Canada's largest real estate cities with Merete Lewis, an Agent with Chestnut Peak Real Estate out of Toronto. We dissect the recent trends and statistics that are shaping both property markets and we look at which city is fairing better under the current economic climate.In Toronto, the month of October witnessed a notable softening in home sales, hitting levels not seen since 1995, with less than 5000 sales. Despite this, immigration remains robust, creating a dynamic where the market feels akin to holding a beach ball underwater. As we explore the data, we unveil a deepening Buyer's market in both cities with new listings surging and inventory reaching levels not seen since 2012. With the Housing Price Index (HPI) on a multi month decline, those looking for a deal may soon find one.Shifting our focus to Vancouver, a decline in sales of 13% in September and October has continued into November, resulting in a 19% downturn. Despite flat new listings, the sales-to-new-listings ratio indicates a declining price environment, favouring buyers. The counter-seasonal increase in inventory for the first time in 20 years, coupled with a consecutive decline in the HPI, suggests a market that is adjusting. While prices are currently 5% higher than last year, the trend indicates a nuanced situation.As we navigate through these statistics, we aim to validate the trends by comparing them to real stories on the ground. We delve into questions surrounding market sentiment, the impact of recent economic changes, and the challenges faced by both buyers and sellers.Reflecting on our previous discussion about the similarities between Toronto and Vancouver, we observe how both markets bounced back in the spring but have since experienced shifts. Toronto, in particular, faced challenges in October, which was only marginally better than the previous year after significant rate hikes. The sentiment has changed, and the market has transitioned into a much slower market.Our conversation extends to specific queries about the Toronto condo market. With headlines portraying a challenging scenario, we seek to uncover the real story. Are investors assigning condos at lower values or walking away from deals? How is the market responding to the current conditions? _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 dan@thevancouverlife.com Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089 ryan@thevancouverlife.com www.thevancouverlife.com

In a recent article, Doug Porter, Chief Economist for BMO, revealed a startling reality: rents in Canada have surged by 8.2% year over year, marking the fastest pace since 1983! Moreover, for the first time in 60 years of records, income growth has trailed behind rents by a significant margin. These figures set the stage for a profound discussion with local Property Manager and founder of Greater Vancouver Tenant and Property Managment, Keaton Bessey.Adding to the narrative, November's Report from www.Rentals.ca highlights that the annual rate of rent growth in Canada was 9.9% in October, the second-fastest increase in the past seven months. Vancouver leads the pack with astonishing average rent of $2,872 for a 1-bedroom and $3,777 for a 2-bedroom, while Burnaby closely follows, surpassing Toronto at $2,647 for a 1-bedroom and $3,341 for a 2-bedroom.Armed with these facts, we delve into a series of questions with our esteemed guest, a seasoned property manager with 13 years of experience, to unravel the mystery of how we got to this point and whether it was an inevitable outcome as soon as home home prices began their surge.We shed light on the potential impact of the current economic conditions on the rental market and with signs pointing to a slowing economy, we explore whether lower GDP output and a possible recession could be key factors affecting rental prices. Will an economic downturn slow down rent increases, or is it fundamentally a supply-related concern?On the more contentious topic of rent controls, particularly in Vancouver, where opinions are divided, Keaton provides unique insights into whether rent controls work, and if not, what alternative solutions might exist to address the soaring rents and the city's distinction of having the highest average rent in the country.We also look at rent collection under the current economic climate as it's a great indicator of where the economy lies as well as we look examples of renters breaking leases and what it means for both tenants and landlords. We also put Keaton on the spot as we ask him to peer into his crystal ball as we explore predictions on future rental rates. Will they go up or down, and what factors contribute to this projection?Finally, the conversation touches on immigration and its impact on the rental market. Despite staggering immigration numbers, we explore why many newcomers don't transact until they earn their permanent residency as well as touching on how to rent to new commers and the steps you should take as a landlord to protect yourself. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 dan@thevancouverlife.com Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089 ryan@thevancouverlife.com www.thevancouverlife.com

In a significant move to boost housing supply, the federal government has unveiled a groundbreaking initiative following six months of record-high rental rates. A substantial $1.2 billion in low-interest loans is earmarked for the construction of 2,644 rental homes across seven new projects in Toronto. This aligns with Toronto's ambitious plan to build 65,000 new rent-controlled homes by 2030, with funds totalling $30-40 billion, or approximately $500,000 per home. While these measures address the supply issue, their impact may not be felt for 5-10 years.Shifting to the pre-sale market, the surge is noticeable as resale inventory lags below averages. Over 3,500 pre-sale units hit the market in October across 20 projects, marking the largest release in 2023. With an anticipated 1,450 units in November, the absorption rate in October was 27%, slightly below the typical 30% for this season. The looming question: will investors retreat due to the Airbnb ban?In the US, the annual inflation rate slowed to 3.2% in October 2023, surpassing market forecasts. Despite a 4.5% drop in energy costs, housing expenses accounted for over 70% of inflation. The positive outcome boosted the stock market, with the S&P experiencing its best day since April, the Dow rising 500 points, and the Canada 5-year bond dropping by 20 bps. Keep an eye out for Canada's announcements on November 21 and December 19.National headlines from major news outlets paint a picture of the housing market entering a 'hibernation' phase, echoing a slowdown in sales, listings, and flat prices. While October saw a 17% decline in home sales below pre-pandemic levels, regions are affected differently. Ontario and British Columbia are entering a buyer's market, with moderately lower prices predicted by economists. Conversely, Alberta remains the outlier as Calgary's benchmark prices rose by 9.4% in the past year. Despite high rates, market activity suggests prices are generally holding, though sellers are adapting to collaborate closely with buyers.Now, turning to the unique landscape of the Greater Vancouver Regional District (GVRD), despite 20 months of rising interest rates and a 35% decrease in buying power, home prices have only dropped 5% since the peak, up 6% from a year ago.  Over 1 million mortgages have renewed with rates 2-3 times higher, yet no significant increase in mortgage arrears is noted. With less than 1% of listings as court-ordered sales and inventory 25% below long-term averages, the GVRD market remains remarkably stable, evidenced by average prices rising $10,000 and median prices up $5,000 halfway through November. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 dan@thevancouverlife.com Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089 ryan@thevancouverlife.com www.thevancouverlife.com

In this week's episode, we delve into the very challenging landscape faced by developers across major Canadian cities, a slowing national economy, more job losses and slowing GDP all the while we see some of the highest rental rates on record. We start with the gripping tale of a Toronto-based developer embroiled in a receivership debacle, owing creditors a staggering $200 million, putting their ambitious Mimico project in jeopardy. The ambitious plan promised to transform the Mimico Triangle with an expansive mixed-use space including condos, greenways, retail, and office spaces. As the situation escalates, we can't help but feel the intensity of the struggle faced by these builders.Shifting gears to Vancouver, we uncover a web of rumors surrounding some of the city's prominent developers. Amidst a plethora of unpaid bills and multiple lawsuits, the company is fervently denying any financial trouble, with various claimants yet to prove these allegations in court. However, this is not the first time this prominent developer has faced legal issues, with previous lawsuits marring their reputation across various buildings.Amidst these troubling developments, we uncover the larger challenges facing developers in the current market. With high-interest rates impacting the industry, several projects, including one in the Metrotown area and another in East Vancouver, are struggling to meet sales targets. Seeing projects for sale and others pausing or cancelling altogether, the landscape has changed drastically from just a few years ago. Even as governments advocate for affordable housing, the reality on the ground seems far from supportive. Developers are caught between the stringent demands of the market and the need to provide viable housing solutions.Adding to the mounting pressures, the recent spike in development cost charges in Metro Vancouver has added to the financial burdens, leaving developers and eventually their Buyers grappling with how to deal with these costs. Despite the efforts to combat the housing affordability crisis, the recent move by the British Columbia government mandating high-density, transit-oriented developments has its own set of challenges and implications, further adding to the complexities faced by developers.As the economic landscape continues to fluctuate, with employment rates and sales figures witnessing a decline, the impact on the housing market is palpable. Toronto's housing market is facing its lowest sales since 1995, with inventory levels soaring to unprecedented heights. Similarly, the rental rates across Canada, particularly in Vancouver and Burnaby, have hit new highs - again! _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 dan@thevancouverlife.com Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089 ryan@thevancouverlife.com www.thevancouverlife.com