Brave New World -- hosted by Vasant Dhar

Machine Learning can improve decision making in a big way -- but it can also reproduce human biases and discrimination. Solon Barocas joins Vasant Dhar in episode 24 of Brave New World to discuss the challenges of solving this problem.  Useful resources: 1.  Solon Barocas at his website, Cornell, Google Scholar and Twitter. 2. Fairness and Machine Learning -- Solon Barocas, Moritz Hardt and Arvind Narayanan. 3. Danger Ahead: Risk Assessment and the Future of Bail Reform: John Logan Koepke and David G. Robinson. 4. Fairness and Utilization in Allocating Resources with Uncertain Demand -- Kate Donahue and Jon Kleinberg. 5. Profiles, Probabilities, and Stereotypes -- Frederick Schauer. 6. Thinking Like a Lawyer: A New Introduction to Legal Reasoning -- Frederick Schauer. 7. Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration -- Mathew Salganik and others. 8. Inherent Trade-Offs in the Fair Determination of Risk Scores -- Jon Kleinberg, Sendhil Mullainathan and Manish Raghavan. 9. Limits to Prediction -- Arvind Narayanan and Matthew Salganik. 10. The Fragile Families Challenge. 11.  Daniel Kahneman on How Noise Hampers Judgement -- Episode 21 of Brave New World. 12.  Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment -- Daniel Kahneman. 13. Dissecting “Noise” — Vasant Dhar. 14. Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness -- Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein.

How do we pick the stocks we buy? What drives us to sell? How does new technology impact our attention and behavior? Terrance Odean joins Vasant Dhar in episode 23 of Brave New World to share his learnings over a lifetime of studying behavioral finance. Useful resources: 1. Terrance Odean's videos on Investing. 2.Terrance Odean's video series on individual investor behavior. 3. All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors -- Brad M Barber & Terrance Odean. 4. Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors -- Brad M Barber & Terrance Odean. 5. The Behavior of Individual Investors --  Brad M Barber & Terrance Odean. 6. Zero-Commission Individual Investors, High Frequency Traders, and Stock Market Quality -- Gregory W Eaton, T Clifton Green, Brian Roseman & Yanbin Wu. 7. Thinking Fast and Slow -- Daniel Kahneman. 8. Daniel Kahneman on How Noise Hampers Judgement -- Episode 21 of Brave New World 9. Dissecting “Noise” — Vasant Dhar. 10. The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence -- Hersh Shefrin & Meir Statman. 11. Day-trading reality check: humans are poor investors and even worse traders -- Vasant Dhar. 12. Seinfeld: George Does the Opposite.

Google and Facebook have an outrageous amount of market power, and that's dangerous for society. Dina Srinivasan joins Vasant Dhar in episode 22 of Brave New World to discuss the dangers, and how we can tackle them. Useful resources: 1. Dina Srinivasan's homepage and Twitter. 2. The Antitrust Case Against Facebook -- Dina Srinivasan. 3. Why Google Dominates Advertising Markets -- Dina Srinivasan. 4. Aldous Huxley interviewed by Mike Wallace. 5. James Robinson on What Makes a Successful State -- Episode 19 of Brave New World. 6. Flash Boys: A Wall Street Revolt -- Michael Lewis. 7. Bias, Lies, and Democracy -- Episode 14 of Brave New World (w Ali Velshi). 8. Uplift the Unremarkables -- Episode 2 of Brave New World (w Scott Galloway). 9. Can a Machine Have Human Values? -- Episode 13 of Brave New World (w Brian Christian).

We overestimate our skill at decision making. We're pretty bad, and bias isn't the only reason. Daniel Kahneman joins Vasant Dhar in episode 21 of Brave New World to shed light on the problem of Noise, and what we can do about it. Useful resources: 1. Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgement -- Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony and Cass Sunstein. 2. Thinking, Fast and Slow -- Daniel Kahneman. 3. Dissecting “Noise” -- Vasant Dhar. 4. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction -- Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner. 5. Herbert A Simon on Amazon.

It is a matter of time before machines outstrip humans in most capabilities. How can we possibly stop a more intelligent entity from taking control? Stuart Russell joins Vasant Dhar in episode 20 of Brave New World to explain why, despite the dangers, he remains optimistic about artificial intelligence and how to control it. Useful resources: 1. Human Compatible -- Stuart Russell. 2. Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach -- Stuart Russell and Peter Norvig. 3. Erewhon, or Over The Range -- Samuel Butler. 4. The Theory of Political Economy -- W Stanley Jevons. 5.  Decision and Organization -- Edited by CB McGuire and Roy Radner, with a contribution from Kenneth Arrow. 6. Welfare Economics of Variable Tastes -- John C Harsanyi. 7. Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren -- John Maynard Keynes.

Why do some nations fail in their lurch towards liberty while others succeed? James Robinson joins Vasant Dhar in episode 19 of Brave New World to explain why there is no simple answer to that question -- but the balance between the state and society is central to understanding it. Also discussed: the developing challenge of Big Tech. Useful resources: 1. The Narrow Corridor: How Nations Struggle for Liberty -- Daron Acemoglu and James A Robinson. 2. Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity and Poverty --  Daron Acemoglu and James A Robinson. 3. Erik Brynjolfsson on the Second Machine Age -- Episode 18 of Brave New World.

The first machine age was about mechanical machines. We now live in a time of thinking machines. Erik Brynjolfsson joins Vasant Dhar in episode 18 of Brave New World to talk about the impact of AI on productivity and inequality -- and to explain why he remains optimistic about the prospects for humans in the AI era.   Useful resources: 1. The Second Machine Age -- Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee. 2. Erik Brynjolfsson's website, SSRN page and Google Scholar page. 3. The coming productivity boom --  Erik Brynjolfsson and Georgios Petropoulos 4. Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox -- Erik Brynjolfsson, Daniel Rock & Chad Syverson. 5. The Productivity J-Curve: How Intangibles Complement General Purpose Technologies --  Erik Brynjolfsson, Daniel Rock and Chad Syverson. 6. How Should We Measure the Digital Economy? -- Erik Brynjolfsson and Avinash Collis. 7. GDP-B: Accounting for the Value of New and Free Goods in the Digital Economy -- Erik Brynjolfsson, Avinash Collis, W. Erwin Diewert, Felix Eggers & Kevin J. Fox. 8. Digital Capital and Superstar Firms -- Prasanna Tambe, Lorin Hitt, Daniel Rock & Erik Brynjolfsson. 9. Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work -- Congressional Testimony of Erik Brynjolfsson (September 24, 2019). 10. Do Digital Platforms Reduce Moral Hazard? The Case of Uber and Taxis -- Meng Liu, Erik Brynjolfsson and Jason Dowlatabadi. 11. Does Machine Translation Affect International Trade? -- Erik Brynjolfsson, Xiang Hui & Meng Liu. 12. The Economics of Superstars -- Sherwin Rosen. 13. General Purpose Technologies "Engines of Growth?" -- Timothy F. Bresnahan & Manuel Trajtenberg. 14. Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism -- Anne Case and Angus Deaton. 15. Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren -- John Maynard Keynes. 16. Understanding QE in the New World -- Episode 10 of Brave New World (w Paul Sheard). 17. The Nature of Intelligence -- Episode 7 of Brave New World (w Yann LeCun). 18. Uplift the Unremarkables -- Episode 2 of Brave New World (w Scott Galloway).

How do we come upon our morality? How much of our moral judgement is intuitive and how much is learned? Moral philosopher Peter Railton joins Vasant Dhar in episode 17 of Brave New World to talk about his thinking in this area -- and also how the fields of ethics and AI are colliding. Useful resources: 1. Facts, Values, and Norms: Essays toward a Morality of Consequence -- Peter Railton.  2. Moral Learning: Conceptual foundations and normative relevance -- Peter Railton. 3. Ethical Learning, Natural and Artificial -- Peter Railton. 4. Ethics of Artificial Intelligence -- S Matthew Liao (Editor) 5. Can a Machine Have Human Values? -- Episode 13 of Brave New World (w Brian Christian). 6. Are We Becoming a New Species? -- Episode 12 of Brave New World (w Molly Crockett). 7. Samuel Moyn on Humane War -- Episode 16 of Brave New World. 8. Human-level performance in 3D multiplayer games with population-based reinforcement learning -- Max Jaderberg et al. 9. A multi-agent reinforcement learning model of common-pool resource appropriation -- Julien Perolat et al.

Is a humane war a contradiction in terms? Can rules be made and followed that limit the damage that wars do, or will that make conflict perpetual? Is it necessary and moral for the USA to continue to be the policeman of the world? Samuel Moyn joins Vasant Dhar in episode 16 of Brave New World to tackle the thorny ethical and practical questions around warfare and terrorism as technologies become more precise and lethal. Useful resources: 1. Humane: How the United States Abandoned Peace and Reinvented War -- Samuel Moyn. 2. Samuel Moyn's books on Amazon.

The internet began with an Age of Innocence, which gave way to the Age of Commerce, driven by the advertising model. Nandan Nilekani joins Vasant Dhar in episode 15 of Brave New World to describe how we have now entered the Age of Geopolitics, in which nation states are jostling for power with big tech companies, while tailoring regulation based on their needs and aspirations. They also discuss Nandan's pioneering role in building India's data empowerment architecture -- which the rest of the world can learn from in designing systems that empower individuals as well as societies. Useful resources: 1. Nandan Nilekani's books on Amazon. 2. “Rogue Intermediaries”: Designing Equitable Digital Playgrounds -- Arun Mohan Sukumar. 3. Agile Tech Regulation -- Rahul Matthan. 4. Why anti-trust is antiquated for Big Tech -- Charles Assisi.