The Real Estate Espresso Podcast

On today’s show we are talking about cognitive dissonance. Cognitive dissonance is the discomfort a person feels when someone's behaviour does not align with their values or beliefs. Cognitive dissonance occurs when a person holds two contradictory thoughts at the same time. Here’s an example. Ice cream is bad for me. I want some chocolate ice cream. These two thoughts are seemingly at odds with each other.  --------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today’s show we are talking about mission critical systems and the design principles that sit at the core of these systems. We keep hearing about catastrophic outages of key infrastructure. A few weeks ago the city of Calgary was facing a severe water outage. Over the past month, the network of Chrysler auto dealerships was facing a system wide outage that persisted for several days. This past week, the vulnerability was punctuated by the flawed software update rolled out by cyber security firm Crowdstrike.  The Crowdstrike update affected airlines, banks, retailers, and countless other businesses. Thousands of flights were canceled over the past three days and the airline industry has still not recovered. In order to create a system that is tolerant of failures, there are two main principles that must be followed. there can be no single point of failure  No single point of repair  No single point of failure means that you have to design redundancy into your system. If your internet service comes from a single provider, then you have a single point of failure. Maybe you should have more than one internet service provider so that if one goes down, the other should still be in service. But if the optical fibre for both carriers travels through the same conduit, then that single conduit could become your single point of failure. Resilience is the result of a way of thinking that starts with identifying those single points of failure.  ---------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's show we are talking about why many people fail to achieve their goals. There is a distinct process that results in a better track record for achieving goals. You're invited to our annual goal setting retreat coming up on November 10. This intensive workshop requires focus and hard work in order to set great goals. To learn more, send an email to podcast@victorjm.com and put the word Goals in the subject line. ---------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

John David is based in Miami Florida where he assists developers with public relations on a nation wide basis. On today's show we are talking about the strategies that are most effective when dealing with community opposition to projects. To connect with John, visit davidpr.com --------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's show we are talking about how the US Federal Government manages and disposes of about 1/4 of the entire land mass of the United States. There is a handy report published by the Congressional Research Service which summarizes all of this. The report can be found at https://crsreports.congress.gov --------------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today’s show we are taking a look at what the bond market might be signalling when it comes to the US economy and the global economy.  We have known that the yield curve has been inverted for a record period of time, more than 2 years as of now. An inverted yield curve happens when the short term interest rates are higher than long term interest rates. The classic metric has compared the yield between the 2 year and the 10 year treasury bond. Today the 2 year and the 10 year bond are still inverted. We still have an inverted yield curve against that definition. However, the yield spread between the 2 year and the 30 year has actually normalized and is no longer inverted. Of course that might change again in the next day, or even in the next hour and re-invert. But for now we have a short term rate below a long term rate. Yields for the 2 year have fallen, and for the 10 year and even for the 30 year. All of these rates have fallen. The only one that has stayed the same is the Fed Funds rate set by the Federal Reserve in the range of 5.25%-5.5%.  It’s not natural for long term interest rates to be lower than short term rates. You can’t see as clearly far into the future. That risk and uncertainty associated with the longer timeframe suggests that a risk premium would be warranted.  The memory of 2008 has faded for many. Most remember it today as a real estate crisis, confined to subprime mortgages. But the tentacles of 2008 were much wider. There were millions of job losses, large scale bankruptcies, bank failures, stock market declines. The wealth destruction that occurred during that period was a global financial earthquake. Too many people are pushing forward today as if there are no risks in the market.  We will see lower interest rates in our future, and higher interest rates at the same time. The rates for the safest investments will come down. But those perceived to carry a risk premium will face even more expensive money, even as interest rates fall. This is the fallacy associated with looking to a single rate as a determinant of our financial future. --------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today’s show we are talking about underwriting of residential apartment properties. I look at financial models from other developers on a regular basis. I tend to see the same mistakes over and over again.  On today’s show we’re going to cover the top 7 omissions that I see in financial models. When these assumptions are incorrect, then there is very little the property owner can do to recover from these mistakes. The reality will be different from the financial model and the owner will be forever stuck with explaining to investors why the cash flow from the property is not meeting expectations.  ------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Building a business is difficult. That’s true of all businesses, regardless of the industry. It takes hard work to build a team and to figure out what works and what doesn’t work. There will be mistakes along the way and corrective action and if not then the business will probably fail. Then there are those people who look for a misguided shortcut. Working with experienced people is the key to compressing timeframes and accelerating learning. Hopefully you make fewer mistakes.  --------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today’s show we are talking about one more headwind that is facing the multifamily apartment market across the US.  2023 was a record year for new apartment completions. There were a total of 440,000 apartment completions in 2023 according to RealPage. Some other estimates put the number as high as 510,000 units.  There are several markets that are oversupplied as a result of this surge in building. Demand dropped once the pandemic was over and we have seen the mobility in the US drop significantly.  There are numerous hot markets that are experiencing a glut in new apartments.  -------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Billy Brown is based in Nashville Tennessee where he works as a commercial mortgage broker. On today's show we are talking about the types of deals that are getting done, and where deals are struggling. To connect with Billy, visit billybrown.me --------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)