The Real Estate Espresso Podcast

On today’s show we are talking about a new paper published last Friday by Brent Johnson and  Michael Peregrine of Santiago Capital. Brent Johnson is famous for his dollar milkshake theory. This 44 page article is a deep dive into the Japanese carry trade. Many of you might remember a banking crisis that erupted in Japan last month as a result of the implosion of widespread carry trade activity. While the Yen is likely to rise in the short term when the carry trade truly blows up, it is probably going to fall after that. As I said, the BOJ can protect the bond market or the currency, but not both.  So why do we care about this? If Japan dumps a trillion dollars worth of US Treasuries in a short time period, we could see the supply of US Treasuries exceed demand. That means a sharp and unexpected rise in the yield for US Treasuries which will impact the cost of borrowing for real estate investors. Just because the Fed is in a lowering cycle for the Fed Funds rate, doesn’t mean that the cost of borrowing for real estate investors will follow suit.  -------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Kevin Amolsch is a principal at Pine Financial, based in Denver Colorado. His firm lends locally in Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin and DC. On today's show we are talking about the criteria for lending and what makes sense for their business in the current environment. To connect with Kevin, visit https://pinefinancialgroup.com/ ------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today’s show we are talking about how to find good data.  Last night I hosted an event and invited the Keynote Speaker from Costar to present to our audience. It was a great presentation and the speaker had lots of relevant statistics that would be of interest to anyone in my local market. There were numbers on multi-family apartments, on office, industrial.  During the informal part of the evening we got into a debate about the best sources of data. Every company that specializes in analytics seems to have their own special sauce for how they gather and validate their data.  Some property management companies like Yardi and Realpage also have data analytics products. Both companies are leaders in property management and they can rely on the vast quantity of data that is hosted in their system to provide an accurate picture of the market, but only for the properties they have viability of.  Companies like Costar and ALN use a more old school approach. They have legions of analysts who will monitor the market and pick up the phone and call property owners when a transaction takes place on a commercial property. They will call the property managers at a property and interview them. It’s hard to know whether the property managers are being fully honest in the interview process.  One of the reasons why the reports differ has to do with the methodology.  ---------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

 On today’s show, we are looking at what global commodities prices are telling us very clearly about the global economy. You can manipulate inflation numbers. You can adjust GDP numbers. You can even fudge the unemployment rate.  But what thing we know beyond a shadow of a doubt is that when demand exceeds supply prices rise, and when supply exceeds demand, prices fall. When we think of pricing, some prices only fluctuate in one direction. Salaries go up and they rarely go down.  But for commodities, prices have no real ceiling, nor any real floor. So looking at commodity prices can tell you more about the general economy on a global basis than any report from any one government.  ------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today’s show we are talking about storm preparations. Hurricane Francine is making landfall along the Gulf coast as we speak. Our team owns and operates multiples properties along the Gulf coast. When a tropical system starts to form in the Gulf of Mexico we take notice and pay attention to the storm track several times a day.  Preparation involves communicating with residents to be ready for any eventuality. That means the possibility of an evacuation. If an evacuation is imminent, what will be the route? Will you be heading to safety or into the path of the storm?  On today's show we are sharing our experience on how best to prepare. ------------------ **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

We’ve all heard the rhetoric. The US has the best health care in the world. That’s true for some who can afford to pay for it. But on average, that’s not true.  On today’s show we are going to look at a report published by the Commonwealth Fund a little over a year ago. It was also reported in the American Journal of Managed Care earlier this year.  Now you might wonder why we would focus on this on a real estate podcast. Well, it’s because anywhere there are problems, there is a solution waiting to be implemented. Often, any large scale solution has a real estate component to it.  According to the Commonwealth Fund report, United States experiences the worst health outcomes overall of any high-income nation. ------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's show we are talking about a globally synchronized economic slowdown.  Canada reported its employment numbers late last week and the Canadian unemployment rate rose to 6.6%, the highest level in 7 years. We reported last week that the  We got the latest employment report for the US on Friday. The BLS reported numbers for the month of August. But at the same time that they reported August, they revised the numbers for June and July.  The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised down by 61,000, from +179,000 to +118,000, and the change for July was revised down by 25,000, from +114,000 to +89,000. With these revisions, employment in June and July combined is 86,000 lower than previously reported. The bureau also reported that the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in August from 4.3% in July. This reversal in the unemployment rate could affect the size of interest rate cut that is expected to be announced on September 18 when the Federal Open Market Committee meet on the 17th and 18th of this month.  ----------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Tony Lopes is based in New Hampshire, but invests in the sunbelt of the US. On today's show we are talking about the macro trends that will affect demand for rental housing in the next decade. To connect with Tony, email him directly at tony@dirtybootscapital.com or visit his website at https://dirtybootscapital.com/ -------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Chris Lento is based in Boston, and his firm is investing in multi-family assets in the Southeast. On today's show we are looking at his assessment of the market conditions. You can connect with Chris at his firm EM Capital Group at emcapitalgroup.com --------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today’s show we are talking about invasive species of plants that can play a role in your due diligence when purchasing property.  The first one I’m going to cover today is Wild Parsnip. Wild Parsnip is an invasive plant native to Europe and Asia.  Like giant hogweed and other members of the carrot family, it produces sap containing chemicals that can cause human skin to react to sunlight, resulting in intense burns, rashes or blisters. The second invasive species is one that has also been around for a long time. But I was only introduced to it this past weekend. My wife and I were traveling on the Labor Day  weekend on Long Island and it was everywhere. The banks of most rivers and canals were covered in it. The plant is Japanese Knotweed. Its stalks can grow up to 3 feet in a week. It is invasive and it is relentless. Both plants can take years to eradicate from your property. **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)