The Real Estate Espresso Podcast

Every year the Kansas City Fed hosts the Jackson Hole symposium. All eyes are on the opening speech from Jerome Powell which was widely covered by the news media. To me, the more interesting talks are the invited speakers who give talks on various elements of the economy. The theme this year at Jackson Hole is demographics and the impact on the labor market. So this week we will be doing a mini series summarizing the most noteworthy talks from Jackson Hole this year. Some of these talks are considered boring by the news media and they don’t get covered. But for those who seek to understand how the economy functions, these talks are very interesting. Our first one is focused on a talk by Claudia Goldin from Harvard University.-----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's show I'm coming to you live from Anchorage Alaska. Based on the most recent data available, the rental vacancy rate in the Municipality of Anchorage was 4.6% in 2024. This indicates a relatively tight rental market, although it's a slight increase from some of the historically low rates seen in recent years. The recent population decline can be linked to a long-running economic recession in Alaska, which began in 2015. This recession was largely a result of falling oil prices, which impacted state revenue and led to a slowdown in economic activity. As a result, Anchorage lost jobs and people, and its employment levels have yet to recover to pre-2015 peaks.-----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Dave Shirkey is based in Michigan where today he specializes in mobile home park investing. On today's show we are talking about the darker side of investing which sometimes attracts bad actors. We're discussing how to avoid the possibility of being lured into a scam.To connect with Dave, you can reach him on LinkedIn. --------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Kevin Bupp is based in Tampa, Florida where he invests in mobile home parks and structured parking assets. On today's show we are focusing on the investment mandate for parking lots and structured parking assets. To connect with Kevin you can find him on LinkedIn or at https://sunrisecapitalinvestors.com/fund-4/-------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today’s show we are asking questions about property rights. Our team has been working on  a development site in Utah. The property in question has a broad commercial zoning associated with it. The purpose of zoning is to restrict land use to specific uses that are in line with the city’s master plan. The intent is to ensure that developments of those properties is not in conflict with the stated goals of the city. At this point we have presented three different site plans to the city that are consistent with the zoning. All were supported by the planning commission. The most recent site plan proposal was approved by the planning commission with a vote of 7-0. But then when it got to city council, it was denied. Unlike in some other municipalities, this city has delegated the final decision-making authority to the Planning Commission for certain types of applications, including:Conditional Use PermitsCommercial site plansThis means that for these specific applications, the Planning Commission's decision is final and does not require further approval from the City Council, unless it is appealed.Since our property is zoned commercial, it is unclear that City council should have even played a role in the application according to the city’s own rules. So the question eventually becomes one of property rights. At what point does the denial of construction on a property effectively become a condemnation of the property, without just compensation. We are truly starting to ask questions about the legitimacy of the repeated denials. Clearly these are risks that a developer takes. But my gosh this feels a bit extreme. On today’s show we are going to take a look at the case law surrounding excessive government interference. Now of course I’m not a lawyer and I don’t play one on a podcast.As you can see, we’re a little frustrated with the city council and it’s looking like consulting a very experienced land use attorney might be the next step. ----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1⁠)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613⁠)   Website: [⁠www.victorjm.com⁠](⁠http://www.victorjm.com⁠)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](⁠http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce⁠)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](⁠http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734⁠)   Facebook: [⁠www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)⁠   Email: [⁠podcast@victorjm.com⁠](mailto:⁠podcast@victorjm.com⁠)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [⁠www.ystreetcapital.com⁠](⁠http://www.ystreetcapital.com⁠)   Facebook: [⁠www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)⁠   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](⁠http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital⁠)  

On today’s show we are doing another in the beginner series. The Real Estate Espresso Podcast is unlike other podcasts in that most others are focused on a more entry level audience.  Our listeners are sophisticated. Many of you own large portfolios of apartments. But you also have people in your life who are interested in learning more, but maybe don’t have access to high quality information. The idea of sending your spouse to a $199 weekend bootcamp for beginners where they are going to be abused by sleazy sales people sounds unthinkable. So where do they go. Look no further. We are going to dedicate a couple of shows a month to topics that will accelerate the learning for less experienced investors, and might give the most sophisticated investors a new way of explaining a concept that is otherwise complex to describe.Today’s show is focused on underwriting where I’m reviewing the underwriting from a new investor who is looking at their first multi-family acquisition. There are numerous pitfalls in underwriting which unless you have the experience, you don’t know what you don’t know. This project is the first syndication for them and they don’t have experience having put together a compliant offering. ------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today’s show we are talking about whether Real estate investing as a career require more tech skills in the future? Will it require more finance skills? How do you find that person?The advent of AI has changed the way that the real estate investing is done. It’s a fundamental shift in the real estate investment landscape, moving the industry from a reliance on intuition, fragmented data, and manual processes to a new paradigm that is data-centric. AI is not merely an incremental technological advancement; it is redefining the competitive advantage.--------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today’s show we are talking about ways in which business people and regular citizens are being targeted for financial fraud. This was prompted by an attempt to get $9,000 from our company earlier this week. The attempt to defraud us failed, but it showed how much more sophisticated these attempts are becoming. -----------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

The headlines on the Wall Street Journal have been marvelling at the lack of inflationary pressure as a result of tariffs. The latest CPI announcement had the annualized rate at 2.7% against the backdrop of a weakening labor market. This is converging on the Fed’s 2% target for inflation. We are looking at inflation because the Fed’s interest rate policy is linked to balancing both price stability and maximizing employment. If inflation is too high, they raise rates in order to suppress demand. If unemployment is too high they lower rates to stimulate investment. Of course we know it is not just the rates which affect the economy, it’s access to credit which is infinitely more important. We know that tariffs have been making headlines for most of this year. Tariffs have been in effect on a wide range of goods for many countries since April 1. There have been several delays to the implementation of tariffs which were designed to incentivize new trade deals with the US. Some of these have concluded and others like Canada and China are still in process. Last Friday the Producer Price Index was published and it showed that prices increase 0.9% for the month of July. That's a huge jump in a month. Is this all the result of tariffs? No. The services component of the PPI rose 1.1% and the goods component rose 0.7%. Tariffs are not the whole story. When I consider that companies need to maintain profitability, there are several ways they can do this. For example, retailers might hold the line on prices for goods that have tariffs attached to them. But I think the cost pressure from tariffs and the incentive to bring manufacturing to the US will have two effects.Any new manufacturing in the US will take time to implement. In the meantime, companies will have to find other ways to cut costs. If and when they do eventually bring new manufacturing to the US, it will be very highly automated to minimize the impact of higher wages in the US. With the advent of AI, manufacturers will be looking for ways to eliminate other positions in the company and reduce headcount to improve operating margins. The drive to save costs will accelerate the adoption of AI in companies and speed up the elimination of jobs. Strangely, this will have the opposite effect that the White House is hoping for. So if inflation ticks up as a result of tariffs, can the Fed do anything about it? The answer is a resounding NO. Raising interest rates won’t make the tariffs go away. Increasing costs for businesses won’t cause demand to fall enough to suppress prices. So the Fed would be rendered completely impotent to bring price stability from an artificial imposition of tariffs causing prices to increase. You see these economic models assume normal economic behaviour. But if the model doesn’t explain the real situation on the ground, then at a certain point you have to abandon the computer simulation and look out the window to see what’s happening.--------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Ryan Hawkins is based in St. Louis where he consults as a campaign manager for developers all across North America on the politics of land use. On today's show we are talking about the types of opposition that materialize and how to respond to them. To connect with Ryan and to learn more, visit https://www.sabrepointpa.com/--------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)