Risk Parity Radio

In this episode we answer emails from Boone, MyContactInfo and Alex.  We discuss issues with leverage, real estate invesments, spreadsheet projections and guessing about the future.  Listen for the BLOOPER!And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional links:Video About Leverage:  Investing With Leverage (Borrowing to Invest, Leveraged ETFs) - YouTubeOptimized Portfolios Leveraged ETFs Reviews:  The 9 Best Leveraged ETFs To Enhance Portfolio Exposure (2022) (optimizedportfolio.com)MyContactInfo's Link to Vanguard REIT:  VGSLX-Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund Admiral Shares | VanguardSupport the show

In this episode we follow up on Episode 209 with some recent (as in this week) Wade Pfau references that confirm what we said about overly pessimistic SWR assumptions.   And then we answer emails from Justin, Drew, Jim and Chris.  We discuss REITs and the Risk Parity Chronicles series about them, good sources for information about factor or "smart beta" investing, and questions about transitioning from accumulation to decumulation when you are close to "winning the game."Links:Retire With Style Podcast #34:  Retire With Style - Episode 34: Even In Volatile Markets, Find Out Why The 4% Rule Distribution May Be Too Low (google.com)Risk Parity Chronicles REIT Series Conclusion:  Post-script to REITs series: How do individual REITs compare? (riskparitychronicles.com)Rational Reminder Podcast #213:  RR #213 - Expected Returns and Factor Investing - YouTubeRational Reminder Podcast #129:  RR #129 - Five Factor Investing with ETFs - YouTubeResolve Asset Management YouTube Channel:  ReSolve Asset Management - YouTubeSupport the show

In this episode we answer a lengthy email from Kevin about issues with popular estimates of Safe Withdrawal Rates.  We then discuss the problems with and failings of some of these estimates and their underlying analysis, including why Best Practices beat Convenient Shibboleths, failures to analyze non-simplistic portfolios, misuse of the "reversion to the mean" concept, improper use of conservative assumptions and modelling software, improper use of the 30-year time frame, and the failure to incorporate well-accepted favorable assumptions.  We also discuss appeals to popularity and conflicts of interest, including safety in numbers, the use of double standards, the popularity of pessimism, and the desire to please sponsors, sell products and maintain past consistency, whether foolish or warranted.And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional links:SWR Series #34:  Using Gold as a Hedge against Sequence Risk – SWR Series Part 34 – Early Retirement NowNext Level Life Video re Gold:  Why Are Gold Portfolios So Dependable? - YouTubeRAM Interview of Wade Pfau:  ReSolve Riffs with Wade Pfau on Optimal Retirement Strategies - YouTubeMorningstar 2011 (Lousy) Predictions Article:  Your Forecasts for Stock and Bond Returns  (2011)| MorningstarPortfolio Charts SWR/PWR Calculator:  WITHDRAWAL RATES – Portfolio ChartsKitces Article Re Consequences of Retirement Spending Smile:  How Total Spending Declines Over Time In Retirement (kitces.com)RAM Interview of Antti Ilmanen:  Antti Ilmanen on his new book "Investing Amid Low Expected Returns" - YouTubeImmediate Annuities Website:  Immediate Annuities - Income Annuity Quote Calculator - ImmediateAnnuities.comSupport the show

In this episode we discuss an email from and conversation with Paul Merriman.  We follow up on his suggestion/request that we create an episode for beginning investors to help them get going  in a simple way that can work.  And then we embark on a very special trip.  Very.  Special.Links:The Four Phases of Saving and Investing for Retirement:  The Four Phases Of Saving For Retirement (kitces.com)   Earn = Kansas.  Save = Munchkinland.  Grow = The Roads To Emerald City.  Preserve = Emerald City.Paul Merriman website:  Home - Paul MerrimanPaul Merriman Sound Investing podcast:  Podcasts - Paul MerrimanPaul Merriman Best In Class Funds:  Best-in-Class ETF Recommendations - Paul MerrimanEarn & Invest Podcast (#349) Interview of Paul Merriman:  Are We Leaving Money on the Table? — Earn & Invest (earnandinvest.com)Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Arun, Jeffrey and Chris.  We discuss using simple back-of-the-envelope estimation methods to solve for complex portfolio projections, using a risk parity style portfolio for intermediate accumulations, and re-cap annuity considerations from Episode 184.And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Arun's question:  "What type of portfolio would you suggest for below scenario. I can invest $x a month for y years and can let it sit for n years. After y+n years would like to start withdrawing at least .75x dollars per month perpetually. Value of x would be less than $1000 and value of y would be 5-10 years but depending on future need and market condition it can stay longer or shorter. Ideally would like to have n=0 but that might be too ambitious. Is there to tool to play with these variables that you know and what type of portfolio would you suggest."Additional Links:Risk Savvy book:  Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions by Gerd Gigerenzer | GoodreadsPortfolio Visualizer Monte Carlo Simulator with Multi-stage Analyzer:  Financial Goals (portfoliovisualizer.com)Rule of 72:  Rule of 72 - WikipediaSupport the show

In this episode we answer questions from MyContactInfo, Wesley and Adam.  In a tour de force presentation, we discuss Michael Mauboussin's book, "The Success Equation:  Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports and Investing", the implications of an all small-cap value portfolio and applying the ideas of Bruce Lee and Emerson to Jack Bogle's "Common Sense Investing".  And we also take a frolic and detour into the Twilight Zone.Links:CFA Institute Book Review the The Success Equation:  The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing (a review) (cfainstitute.org)Twilight Zone Episode Clips:  Twilight Zone: Of Late I Think Of Cliffordville - YouTubeEarn & Invest Podcast (#349) Interview of Paul Merriman:  Are We Leaving Money on the Table? — Earn & Invest (earnandinvest.com)Rational Reminder Podcast Interview of Vanguard's Former CIO:  Episode 216: Gus Sauter: Vanguard's Former CIO on Indexing, Active Management, and Private Equity — Rational ReminderSupport the show

Aaaand we're gone!  Poof!Back next week!Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Connor, Paul and Paul Z.  We discuss a new single bond ETF, Paul's risk parity style portfolio and AVUV vs. VIOV.  And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional Links:Connor's Article:  Single-Bond ETFs Solve Some Key Investing Problems (wealthmanagement.com)Analysis of Paul's Portfolio and Alternatives:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)Interview of Eduardo Repetto:  Episode 43: Bogleheads on Investing – guest Eduardo Repetto, host Rick Ferri – Rick Ferri, CFAAVUV Webpage:  AVUV - Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF | Avantis InvestorsSupport the show

In this episode I answer a question from Charles, who has a terminal illness.  We go off topic and discuss books about dying, examples of people who did it well, and resources for short-term trading.Links:End of Life Series:  Barbara Karnes' End of Life Guideline Series - BK Books – BK BooksThe Five Invitations:  The Book | The Five invitations: What Death Can Teach Us About Living Fully – by Frank OstaseskiTaking Stock:  Jordan Grumet | Welcome to JordanGrumet.comBlue Zones Vitality Test:  True Vitality Test by Blue ZonesSit-Rise Test:  This test could predict how long you will live - YouTubeShadow Trader Site:  ShadowTrader: Daily Market Trading News Stories & Market EducationPeter Reznicek Video: Peter Reznicek - ShadowTraders @ 1pm ET - How I prepare each morning to trade - YouTubeTasty Trade:  tastytrade: A Financial Network for Options & Futures Trading | tastytradeMarket Wizards Books:  market wizards books schwager - Search (bing.com)Big ERN Options Strategy:  Trading like an Escape Artist: How I made money in October trading S&P Futures Options with 2x leverage – Early Retirement NowKelly Criterion:  Kelly Criterion Definition (investopedia.com)Ed Thorp Autobiography:  A Man For All Markets - Edward O. Thorp (edwardothorp.com)Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Gen, Greg and Nathan.  We discuss how to find funds using a fund screener and why you should not be using the investment account equivalents of blackberries and flip-phones any more, individual REIT selections, and value and growth data sources.   I forgot to mention that the other individual REIT we hold is WY, which invests in timber (and thereby missed another opportunity to play the lumberjack song.)And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio. Additional Links:Fund Screener:  Fund Screener (portfoliovisualizer.com)Rob Berger Video About Vanguard's New Fees:  Vanguard Fees Are Going Up -- Here's Why and How to Avoid Them - YouTubeInvestopedia Article -  Value vs. Growth in the S&P 500:  Value or Growth Stocks: Which Is Better? (investopedia.com)Value vs. Growth Over Time:  Canterbury Investment Management - Value versus Growth: A Brief Historical View (canterburygroup.com)DFA Matrix Book:  Matrix+Book+2020.pdf (squarespace.com)Walk For McKenna:  Walk4McKenna - Father McKenna CenterSupport the show