Conversations on Strategy Podcast

Contesting Paul Scharre’s influential vision of “centaur warfighting” and the idea that autonomous weapon systems will replace human warfighters, this podcast proposes that the manned-unmanned teams of the future are more likely to be minotaurs, teams of humans under the control, supervision, or command of artificial intelligence. It examines the likely composition of the future force and prompts a necessary conversation about the ethical issues raised by minotaur warfighting. The guests also explore culture and trust in relation to AI and the military.Keywords: manned-unmanned teaming, centaur warfighting, artificial intelligence, future force, ethics, trustDownload the transcript: https://media.defense.gov/2024/May/30/2003475799/-1/-1/0/COS-41-LUSHENKO_SPARROW_HENSCHKE-PART-2-TRANSCRIPT.PDF

Contesting Paul Scharre’s influential vision of “centaur warfighting” and the idea that autonomous weapon systems will replace human warfighters, this podcast proposes that the manned-unmanned teams of the future are more likely to be minotaurs, teams of humans under the control, supervision, or command of artificial intelligence. It examines the likely composition of the future force and prompts a necessary conversation about the ethical issues raised by minotaur warfighting. The guests also explore culture and trust in relation to AI and the military. Keywords: manned-unmanned teaming, centaur warfighting, artificial intelligence, future force, ethics, trust E-mail usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article.Download the transcript: https://media.defense.gov/2024/May/15/2003466223/-1/-1/0/COS-40-TRANSCRIPT-LUSHENKO_SPARROW_HENSCHKE.PDF

The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so, unless Taipei and Washington take urgent steps to restore deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This monograph introduces the concept of interlocking deterrents, explains why deterrents lose their potency with the passage of time, and provides concrete recommendations for how Taiwan, the United States, and other regional powers can develop multiple, interlocking deterrents that will ensure Taiwanese security in the short and longer terms. By joining deterrence theory with an empirical analysis of Taiwanese, Chinese, and US policies, the monograph provides US military and policy practitioners new insights into ways to deter the People’s Republic of China from invading Taiwan without relying exclusively on the threat of great-power war. In this episode, Dr. Jared M. McKinney, Dr. Peter Harris, Col. Rich D. Butler, and Josh Arostegui discuss Deterrence Gap: Avoiding War in the Taiwan Strait and the possible trajectories for China and Taiwan over the coming decades. Keywords: China, Taiwan, deterrence, One China, Chinese Communist Party, Silicon Shield, deterrence theory E-mail usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article.

The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so, unless Taipei and Washington take urgent steps to restore deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This monograph introduces the concept of interlocking deterrents, explains why deterrents lose their potency with the passage of time, and provides concrete recommendations for how Taiwan, the United States, and other regional powers can develop multiple, interlocking deterrents that will ensure Taiwanese security in the short and longer terms. By joining deterrence theory with an empirical analysis of Taiwanese, Chinese, and US policies, the monograph provides US military and policy practitioners new insights into ways to deter the People’s Republic of China from invading Taiwan without relying exclusively on the threat of great-power war. In this episode, Dr. Jared M. McKinney, Dr. Peter Harris, Col. Rich D. Butler, and Josh Arostegui discuss Deterrence Gap: Avoiding War in the Taiwan Straight and the possible trajectories for China and Taiwan over the coming decades.Keywords: China, Taiwan, deterrence, One China, Chinese Communist Party, Silicon Shield, deterrence theoryE-mail usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article.Download the transcript: https://media.defense.gov/2024/Apr/12/2003438389/-1/-1/0/COS-38-TRANSCRIPT-MCKINNEY_HARRIS_BUTLER_AROSTEGUI_PART%201.PDF

In this episode, Dr. Luke P. Bellocchi, Major Jamie Critelli, and Captain Gustavo Ferreira address strategic concerns the United States should consider when evaluating the current Asia-Pacific environment, including Taiwan’s potential food insecurity should China invade or blockade Taiwan, China’s supply of rare-earth elements and how a conflict with China might affect the US technology and defense sectors, and ramifications for the global economy if a Chinese blockade around Taiwan is successful.E-mail usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article.Keywords: China, Taiwan, food insecurity, rare-earth elements, global economyDownload the transcript: https://media.defense.gov/2024/Jun/12/2003483834/-1/-1/1/COS-PODCAST-37-TRANSCRIPT-BELLOCCHI_CRITELLI_FERREIRA.PDF

Jody Prescott and Brenda Oppermann discuss conflict-related sexual violence and the role of leadership vis-à-vis sexual and gender-based violence. While progress has been made in recent years, including United Nations resolutions in 1983 and 2000 and the US Women, Peace, and Security Act in 2017 [with its most recent iteration published in 2023], there is still much to do to address conflict-related sexual violence worldwide. \Keywords: conflict-related sexual violence; Women, Peace, and Security Act; human rights; leadership; United Nations E-mail usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article.

How are the Middle East and South America connected, and what does it mean for the United States and other countries in the Western Hemisphere? From geopolitics to economic repercussions, diplomatic relations, security concerns, global energy markets, humanitarian efforts, and more, R. Evan Ellis discusses the far-reaching impact of events in the Middle East. Keywords: Israel, Gaza, South America, Brazil, energy E-mail usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article.

In this episode, Colonel Paul Lushenko, PhD, discusses drones and their use in Gaza and Ukraine. Lushenko is a faculty instructor, and director of special operations in the Department of Military Strategy, Planning, and Operations at the US Army War College. His most recent book, The Legitimacy of Drone Warfare: Evaluating Public Perceptions, was published by Routledge in January 2024.Email usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article.Keywords: drones, artificial intelligence, Israel, Gaza, Ukraine, RussiaDownload the transcript: https://media.defense.gov/2024/Feb/22/2003398040/-1/-1/0/CoS34-podcast-transcript-Lushenko.PDF

Integrating artificially intelligent technologies for military purposes poses a special challenge. In previous arms races, such as the race to atomic bomb technology during World War II, expertise resided within the Department of Defense. But in the artificial intelligence (AI) arms race, expertise dwells mostly within industry and academia. Effective employment of AI technology cannot be relegated to a few specialists. Not everyone needs to know how to fly a plane to have an effective air force, but nearly all members of the military at every level will have to develop some level of AI and data literacy if the US military is to realize the full potential of AI technologies. Keywords: artificial intelligence, artificial wisdom, ChatGPT, large language model E-mail usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on the monograph or the podcast.

The 16th annual Kingston Consortium on International Security conference, “International Competition in the High North,” took place on October 11–13, 2022, in Kingston, Ontario, Canada. The conference examined the Arctic region in the context of ongoing climate change and against the backdrop of war in Ukraine. Over the past several years, the United States has acknowledged the growing importance of the Arctic as a strategic region, and the Department of Defense and each of the US military services have published Arctic policies or strategies. In addition, the Department of Defense has created a new regional studies center, the Ted Stevens Center for Arctic Security Studies in Alaska. Canada and the other Arctic Council nations have also acknowledged the growing importance of the Arctic region, revised strategic frameworks, and changed institutional approaches to ensure Arctic security challenges arising from great-power competition and other threats, like those to the environment, are addressed. This volume captures these ideas for the United States and its allies so all can benefit from this experience. E-mail usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article. Keywords: Arctic, Arctic Council, China, climate change, indigenous peoples, RussiaDownload the full transcript: https://media.defense.gov/2024/Jan/29/2003382919/-1/-1/0/COS-PODCAST-TRANSCRIPT-LYNCH-COOMBS.PDF