Saxo Market Call

Japan's political landscape takes a surprising turn with Takaichi's unexpected victory, weakening the yen in the process. The discussion explores potential long-term implications for Japan's currency strength. Meanwhile, France faces turmoil as its new prime minister resigns, raising concerns about euro volatility and bond market risks. Insights on Palantir's alarming glitch and the unsettling divergences in US market internals provide a thrilling blend of market analysis, while recommendations on credit highlight the challenges in private equity.

Today we look at many AI names and the broader market posting a strong day, if one that finished off the highs - while Tesla shareholders got a very bad, no good bearish candlestick. Importantly, we cover the big markdown in private equity stocks, possibly linked to the First Brands bankruptcy, as well as whether this is this is a one-off or the beginning of a wider contagion. Geopolitics, macro and FX, more links and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

In this insightful discussion, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo, dives into the current state of the oil market and the intriguing dynamics behind gold and silver's rallies. He analyzes the impact of geopolitical tensions, OPEC's strategies, and seasonal demand on crude prices. Hansen also examines ETF flows and physical availability as key factors driving precious metals' strength, highlighting risks tied to shorts and leverage. His expert insights illuminate an asset class that is unexpectedly showing signs of trouble amid broader market euphoria.

The risks of a US government shutdown are explored, highlighting potential economic impacts and political theatrics. The Japanese Yen makes a sudden rally, defying recent trends against the USD. Exciting discussions on Carnival's earnings reflect strong demand but cautioned cost outlook. Geopolitical tensions, especially around China and Taiwan, are on the rise, affecting global markets. The episode also dives into the complexities of labor shortages and the AI boom's perceived hype, plus what to expect in upcoming economic data releases.

Markets are in a positive mood, with treasury yields stable and crypto bouncing back. The potential US government shutdown looms as pivotal economic data approaches. Sharp rallies in silver and gold signal risk appetite, while Japan's leadership contest could influence the yen. The UK faces political uncertainty affecting its gilt market, and the Germany-France yield spread raises Eurozone concerns. Lastly, the attention economy may be contributing to civic fragmentation, highlighting systemic risks in trading structures.

In this discussion, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo, dives into his structural bullish outlook on crude oil, emphasizing supply dynamics and OPEC concerns. He explains why oil prices are unlikely to fall below $50, highlighting global demand trends. The conversation shifts to the outlook for European natural gas as winter approaches, discussing storage and supply challenges. Hansen also touches on the performance of metals like gold and copper, and outlines potential investment ideas linked to stable oil prices.

Today, a look at another weak session for US equities, with few stand-out themes amidst the broad weakness.  The concern going into next Tuesday's September 30 government shutdown continues to build and could be a determining factor in whether we remain in consolidation-ville or tip over into correction-ville. Another factor could be USDJPY and the fallout if it breaks higher. Some key developments in copper on an Indonesian copper mine disaster, a compelling biotech stock story, other single stock developments and more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.  Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

The U.S. equity market finally dipped as concerns about a government shutdown rise. The Trump administration's hardening stance on Russia and its potential partial ownership of a lithium company sparked a 75% stock surge. Meanwhile, Germany's disappointing economic data pressures the eurozone. Discussions include NVIDIA's risky investment in OpenAI and shifts in Bitcoin and Tether funding. A trader inspired by Nassim Taleb’s principles shares his disaster-hedging strategy. Lastly, the podcast delves into the changing landscape of national capitalism and resource strategies.

Join Ole Hansen, Head of Commodities Strategy at Saxo, as he delves into the dynamic world of commodities and AI stocks. He discusses how Nvidia’s massive funding for OpenAI is influencing the AI landscape and shaping a basket of 24 key stocks. The conversation shifts to precious metals like gold and silver, exploring their rally driven by investor demand. Hansen also shares insights on the sluggish crude oil market and how geopolitical factors are shaping supply dynamics. Tune in for a riveting analysis of trends and potential market bubbles!

The discussion reveals a narrow U.S. market reaching new heights amidst growing signs of speculative excess. A meteoric rise in stocks like Oklo and trends in quantum computing spark intrigue, even as some companies boast only promises of future earnings. The impact of recent FOMC and Bank of Japan meetings is explored, alongside geopolitical tensions and the looming risk of a U.S. government shutdown. The conversation highlights the importance of monitoring the U.S. 10-year yield for its influence on market sentiment and currency movements.