FYI - For Your Innovation

In the world of aerospace, our wildest imaginings are steadily becoming a reality. Joining us today to discuss the future of air traffic, autonomous flight, and the phenomenon of Hamburger Helper being delivered to your door via drone, is aviator, entrepreneur, and investor, Cyrus Sigari. Cyrus has an impressive track record in the field of aviation and is currently the Co-founder and Managing Partner of UP Partners, a privately-owned company that builds and invest in technologies that help move people and goods. In this episode, we discuss the undeniable crossover between military and civilian applications of aviation technology, the challenges the FAA faces when it comes to certifying revolutionary technologies, and what exciting drone-related developments we could see in the next five years! Cyrus fills us in on China’s interesting aviation model, speculates on which areas the US could improve, and explains why focusing on transporting things, rather than humans, could free up the innovation process. Tune in to find out what’s going on in the aviation world, what might be some future possibilities, and what to consider as an early-stage investor in aerospace technologies! “As you democratize access to mobility, quality of life goes up and economies just do better.” — Cyrus Sigari Key Points from this Episode Cyrus Sigari’s background and involvement in the field of aviation. How Eclipse Aviation started the Very Light Jet (VLJ) Revolution. The historical risk of investing in disruptive innovation in aerospace, and why that risk is steadily decreasing. The challenge of the FAA to certify multiple new systems and technologies. Which countries Cyrus believes are leading progress in aerospace. China’s interesting aviation model. What makes aerospace one of the most important industries in the world. Why ARK is interested in autonomous flying vehicles. The undeniable crossover between military and civilian applications of technology. Examples of geopolitical conflict creating technologies with civilian applications. How civilian technologies are now bleeding into the military. How the development of adaptable commercial applications of technology could improve a country’s ability to be militarily competitive. Impressive autonomous flight technologies and their social and regulatory obstacles. Walmart’s revolutionary drone delivery service. Three noteworthy drone delivery companies: DroneUp, Zipline, and Wing. How focusing on moving things via air, rather than people, lessens the barrier to innovation. What to consider as an early-stage investor in aerospace technologies. Cyrus predicts that the US will be operating drones beyond the line of sight within five years. The shocking statistic of people who have flown in an aircraft. What Cyrus is most excited about in aerospace today!

When you’re in the middle of a crisis like the COVID-19 pandemic, getting timely test results is imperative. Unfortunately, laboratory testing does not scale well due to its centralized testing infrastructure. It also requires sample transportation, complicated equipment, and technical expertise, all of which lead to high costs and time delays that are incompatible with problems that require immediate answers. Today on the show, we talk with Khalid Alam, Founder and CEO of Stemloop, a privately-held company that is currently focused on developing cell-free biosensors to solve challenges in biomanufacturing, environmental monitoring, and human health. Tuning in, you’ll learn more about Khalid’s career, how he became interested in biochemistry and biotech, and how Stemloop’s cell-free biosensors will monitor and fortify water supplies around the world. We discuss how the biotech space has evolved over the past few decades, why doing projects at scale is so beneficial, and how the cost of DNA sequencing has plummeted in recent years. Khalid also delves into the crisis that the US is currently experiencing with lead in their water supply, the challenges of solving this problem, and the rapid tests that Stemloop is building for household taps. Today’s episode offers an exciting look into the world of testing and is full of important insights on advancements in biotech. Tune in to hear it all! “Two and a half years ago, when I was pitching Stemloop, I would tell people that laboratory testing doesn’t scale. I think they understood that superficially, but they didn’t necessarily empathize with it deeply.” — @BioChemPHD Key Points from this Episode An overview of Khalid’s career journey in biotech and biochemistry. How Khalid defines synthetic biology. Advancements in the biotech space over the past few decades. The value of doing biotech projects at a massive scale. How high-scale parallelization caused DNA sequencing to become more affordable. Aptamers: what they are, how they work, and why they’re useful. A breakdown of the FASTAptameR 2.0 toolkit. Exciting developments related to fluorescence activating RNAs. Global issues around water quality and how synthetic biology can address it. The benefits and challenges of analytical testing. Why getting a test result quickly is imperative. How the COVID-19 pandemic introduced testing issues to a broader audience. An overview of a lateral flow test and why it’s so valuable. Advantages of a cell-free approach and the cell-free biosensors that Stemloop is developing. How these will monitor and fortify water supplies around the world. How Khalid has transformed computational ideas and adapted them to the physical space. The methods they used to winnow down the application space. How the US is dealing with lead in their drinking water; challenges and possible solutions. How to get involved with Stemloop.

Saman Farid believes that robots are a means to an end and while their importance is derived from the output they create, many companies are focused solely on the hardware itself. In this episode, we are joined by Saman Farid, the CEO of Formic which is a privately held Robotics as a Service (RaaS) company that focuses on the output rather than the hardware. He sheds light on the concept of Robotics as a Service and what this really means. On today’s episode, you’ll hear about the barriers to robot adoption in manufacturing, the development of technologies that make it possible to use industrial robots in a collaborative way, the challenges of implementation in this field, and how the declining costs of hardware are opening up more opportunities in this sector. You’ll also learn more about why Saman believes that in the future, companies will either be building new robots, or operating them and generating value from them, but not both. To hear what excites Saman the most about the advancement of robotics in the next five years and why he believes that robots are not stealing jobs but creating more, listen now! I think eventually we’ll get to the point where every robot by default is collaborative, and not just collaborative between robots and humans, but more importantly, collaborative between robots and other robots.” — @samanfarid Key Points from this Episode Saman Farid’s thoughts on the concept of Robotics as a Service and what this really means. Thoughts on how innovative technologies tend to take hold during tumultuous times and how the pandemic is driving adoption. The labor shortage and supply chain challenges and how Formic is trying to formulate ideas to address these issues. The barriers to robot adoption in manufacturing. The types of tasks that Formic has had the most success in automating and those that still need work. The dynamic Saman sees in the use of collaborative robots versus more traditional caged-off industrial robots. The development of technologies that make it possible to use industrial robots in a collaborative way. The challenges of implementation and training in the development of this field. Business alignment challenges between companies that build robots and those that do Robotics as a Service. Saman’s prediction that the differentiation between the hardware vendors of robots is decreasing and specialization is increasing. Thoughts on the declining costs for the hardware of robotics and the opportunities that this opens up in manufacturing. Saman’s answer to the common question “Are robots stealing and destroying jobs?” What excites him the most about the advancement of robotics in the next five years.

In this week’s episode, we are featuring another segment from our Big Ideas Summit 2022. Click here to view the entire presentation, including the section referenced in this episode. In this segment, Brett Winton, ARK’s Director of Research, discusses how our five innovation platforms of artificial intelligence, robotics, blockchain technology, energy storage, and DNA sequencing are converging, and what impact this convergence might have on how quickly each platform evolves in the future. On today’s episode, you’ll hear the composite forecast of the 14 technologies that ARK focuses on and the aggregate market cap appreciation that ARK anticipates accruing across each. Brett offers his take on the future of Robotaxis, reusable rockets, genomics, public blockchain, and digital wallets, among other things. To hear ARK’s predictions on what will be some of the most economically productivity-generating innovations of all time, tune in today! “If half of market cap is going to be attributed to innovation then from allocation perspective, you’re better off being in front of that wave than waiting for it to occur.” — @wintonARK Key Points from this Episode An introduction to how the innovation platforms of artificial intelligence, robotics, blockchain technology, energy storage, and DNA sequencing are converging. Some necessary disclosures and the difference between volatility and risk. The composite forecast of the 14 technologies that ARK focuses on and the aggregate market cap appreciation that they anticipate accruing across each. Why it may be important to be in front of the wave of innovation from an allocation perspective when it comes to market cap. Why Brett believes that these five technology platforms are expected to accrue over $200 trillion in value over ten years and how they derive these values. ARK’s visualization of how the asset value accrual will break down. How each technology platform fits into this breakdown. Why ARK believes that autonomous mobility and Robotaxi are going to be the most economically productivity-generating innovations of all time. What ARK foresees in robotics, reusable rockets, and genomics. Public blockchain and why ARK sees this as three concurrent revolutions that have all been catalyzed by the introduction of Bitcoin into the world. The future of digital wallets. What differentiates ARK analysts from other research teams.

Dr. Agnieszka Czechowicz is driven by her passion for making an impact and changing the way that care is provided. Throughout her career she has taken science and translated it into medicines, many of which are having helping patients. Agnieszka has worked with a wide range of companies, from those that do gene editing to those that focus on hearing and balance disorders. However, her main area of research is in the field of hematopoietic stem cells. In today’s episode, Agnieszka explains the importance of these cells, and the benefits of the hematopoietic stem cells transplants. Agnieszka’s interest in transplant medicine began at a young age, and her passion for the field continues to grow year after year. Tune in today to hear about how Agnieska is contributing to the transformation of the medical field! “We showed that your own stem cells compete for space with the transplanted stem cells in a hematopoietic stem cell transplantation process.” — @aneeshka Key Points from this Episode An overview of Dr. Agnieszka Czechowicz’s incredible career. Where Agnieszka’s interest in transplant medicine originated. What keeps Agnieszka motivated, despite the challenges of being a physician scientist. The power of hematopoietic stem cells. An explanation of the two bone marrow failure syndromes that Agnieszka specializes in. Discoveries that Agnieszka made many years ago when conducting research into hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. Problems with the genotoxic conditioning that is used prior to bone marrow and hematopoietic stem cell transplants. The mission of Magenta Therapeutics, of which Agnieszka is a co-founder. Feedback on progress that Magenta Therapeutics is making. The potentially transformative power of agent CD117 ADC. How agents developed by Magenta Therapeutics can be used in gene editing and gene therapy. Agnieszka’s involvement with Jasper Therapeutics, and the therapy that they are currently working on. Interventions that Agnieszka believes will cause a profound reduction in graft versus host diseases. Work that Agnieszka has done for Third Rock Ventures. Some of bluebird bio’s achievements and setbacks. Agnieszka’s involvement with Editas, Decibel Therapeutics, and Beam Therapeutics (and where the name Beam came from). Ex vivo versus in vivo manipulation techniques. What drives Agnieskza to do the work that she does. Agnieszka’s passion for women’s health.

The world is currently experiencing a multitude of historic events, from a global pandemic to the confounding invasion of Ukraine, to an ever-increasing rise in climate-related disasters. Here to help us unravel the influence of these events, as well as broader geopolitical trends on innovation, is a critically acclaimed author and geopolitical analyst, Peter Zeihan. His latest book The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization looks into the wave of deglobalization the world is currently experiencing and what this means for the future of energy, finance, manufacturing, and innovation as we move through the coming decades. Today, you’ll hear an overview of Peter’s geopolitical worldview, how he expects deglobalization to affect innovation in the US and abroad, as well as some of the challenges facing green tech and its applications. We also delve into how authoritative governments can limit connection in the modern world, why nuclear power is a necessary part of our global future, as well as the merits and shortcomings of a decentralized currency like Bitcoin. Key Points from this Episode Get to know today’s guest Peter Zeihan, Geopolitical Strategist and author. Introducing Peter’s latest book The End of the World is Just the Beginning. An overview of deglobalization and depopulation in the context of the last century. Peter’s thesis of the macroeconomic and technological impact of the end of deglobalization. The types of terrain where autonomous electric trucks will have the biggest impact. The countries expected to benefit most from autonomous electric trucks in their supply chain management. The three technological revolutions that shifted society’s relationship to its economy and geographic positioning. Peter’s expectations around deindustrialization in the next two decades. Examples of how authoritative governments can limit global connection with the outside world. The challenges of sourcing more raw materials for green energy. How green tech is affected by geopolitics. Why nuclear power is crucial for the future of global energy. Peter’s views on Bitcoin and its shortcomings.

Today on the show we discuss our Tesla Valuation model and how we came to our 2026 price target for a Tesla share. You will hear from three analysts on how they constructed the valuation, their methodology, and what they project for 2026. Tasha Keeney shares her thoughts on why electric is the future of autonomous technology, Will Summerlin unpacks the potential opportunities for AI within foundational models, and Sam Korus explains why batteries are the single biggest cost component in Tesla’s vehicles. We also cover the results of the Monte Carlo analysis, with an overview of how it functions, and delve into the five key inputs that are the main drivers of this model. Today’s conversation offers insights into our dynamic valuation model! Read the full valuation blog here. “One of the biggest potential markets that we see in AI is autonomous driving and we think that all vehicles in the future, all passenger cars will be electric.” — @TashaARK Key Points from this Episode Introducing our latest Tesla Valuation model and 2026 price target. An overview of our top-down and bottom-up research methodology. A breakdown of Wright’s law and why it applies to battery production. The potential opportunities for AI within foundational models. Our views on why the future of autonomous driving cars is electric. How autonomous driving cars are expected to lower the cost of driving. The Monte Carlo analysis and the role it’s played in this valuation’s methodology. The five key inputs that are the main drivers of this model. How to access the valuation model on Github. Why the launch year and time of adoption is the single biggest driver for this model. Information on how to reach out to us for questions and queries on our model. DISCLOSURE The forecasted performance and price estimates herein are subject to revision by ARK and provided solely as a guide to current expectations. There can be no expectation that the specific security will achieve such performance or that there will be a return of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. FORECASTED PERFORMANCE RESULTS ARE HYPOTHETICAL AND HIGHLY SPECULATIVE, AND PRESENT MANY RISKS AND LIMITATIONS.  The recipient should not consider these estimated prices alone in making an investment decision. While ARK believes that there is a sound basis for the forecasts presented, no representations are made as to their accuracy, and there can be no assurance that such forecasts or returns will be achieved by the specific security. The recipient is urged to use extreme caution when considering the forecasted performance, as it is inherently subjective and reflects ARK’s inherent bias toward higher expected returns. Any higher returns should be viewed as a measure of the relative risk of such investments, with higher forecasted performance generally reflecting greater risk. There is no guarantee that any results will align with the forecasted performance, and they might not be predictive.  Some or all results may be substantially lower than projected results and, as with any investment, it is possible that you could lose money. FORECASTED performance results (single security model simulation forecasts) have many inherent limitations. A recipient account might or might not hold this single security, and the account performance will be affected in proportion to its holding size and the amount of price fluctuation over time. No representation is being made that any client account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses tied to a security in the security model forecasts. In fact, there could be significant differences between these forecasted performance results and the actual results realized. Forecasted performance has not been achieved by the security, and like all modeled, projected or hypothetical performance, it is important to note that there are multiple versions of a model, and ARK has a conflict of interest in that we have an incentive to show you the best performing results. These forecasts rely on models, which calculate hypothetical performance. Several of the limitations of hypothetical performance models include: 1) reliance on a variety of data obtained from sources that are believed to be reliable, but might be incorrect, inaccurate or incomplete and ARK does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information obtained from any third party, 2) potential inclusion of inherent model creation biases, data discrepancies and/or calculation errors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected, 3) NO reflection of the impact that material economic and market factors might have had on investment decisions that would have been in actual portfolios being managed at the time and do not involve market risk, and 4) NO guarantee of future investment results. The forecasted results rely on assumptions, forecasts, estimates, modeling, algorithms and other data input by ARK, some of which relies on third-parties, that could be or prove over time to be incorrect, inaccurate or incomplete. The forecasted returns are based on a variety of criteria and assumptions, which might vary substantially, and involve significant elements of subjective judgment and analysis that reflect our own expectations and biases, which might prove invalid or change without notice. It is possible that other foreseeable events that were not taken into account could occur. The forecasted performance results contained herein represent the application of the simulation models as currently in effect on the date first written above, and there can be no assurance that the models will remain the same in the future or that an application of the current models in the future will produce similar results because the relevant market and economic conditions that prevailed during the performance period will not necessarily occur. The results will not be updated as the models change, or any information upon which they rely changes. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the public equity security specifically that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of forecasted performance results, all of which can adversely affect actual results. For these reasons, forecasted performance results will differ, and could differ significantly from actual results. FORECASTED PERFORMANCE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO REVISION AND PRESENTED FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY. While ARK’s current assessment of the subject company may be positive, please note that it might be necessary for ARK to liquidate or reduce position sizes prior to the company attaining any forecasted valuation pricing due to a variety of conditions including, but not limited to, client specific guidelines, changing market conditions, investor activity, fundamental changes in the company’s business model and competitive landscape, headline risk, and government/regulatory activity. Additionally, ARK does not have investment banking, consulting, or any type of fee-paying relationship with the subject company.

Long before the concepts of the Metaverse and cryptocurrency became widely understood, Second Life was already a thriving virtual metropolis running off its own monetary system. In today’s episode, we have the pleasure of hearing from its inventor, Philip Rosedale, about how technology has evolved since he founded Second Life, and how he hopes it is going to continue to evolve in the future. Angie Dalton also joins in on the conversation to share her perspective on what is going on in the virtual world. Our conversation covers everything from avatars to the uncanny valley to the potential of the Metaverse to eliminate loneliness, so don’t miss this one! “Second Life was this experiment to build one single, large, virtual world that everybody was in together and that had land and would allow people to build things together in any way they wanted to.” — @philiprosedale Key Points from this Episode Philip’s two main interests that catalyzed the founding of Second Life. Technological changes that took place in the late ’90’s, which were the final push that Philip needed to found Second Life in 1999. What the early years of founding Second Life looked like. The goal of Second Life, and what makes it unique. Philip shares some statistics which give an indication of the size of Second Life today. Characteristics built into the Second Life currency that allowed it to work as well as it has. Reasons that Second Life didn’t run into many regulatory issues when they were starting out. Angie’s thoughts on how to democratize crypto inside games. Facets of the Metaverse that Philip is particularly interested in seeing the evolution of. The problem that Philip and his team at High Fidelity have developed technology to solve. What Philip believes one of the main goals of technological advancements should be. A sad truth about our online connections. Some of the pros and cons of trustless economies. Why allowing for the ability to trade virtually is essential to the success of the Metaverse. The next step that is required to take the Metaverse to the next level. Philip explains the concept of the ‘uncanny valley’. Changes that Philip expects to see in virtual worlds in the next 5 years. What Angie is most excited about in the virtual reality space.

The FinTech industry has had its fair share of young entrepreneurs, but few are quite as interesting as Jared Isaacman, a New Jersey native and high school dropout who founded his first startup when he was just 16. Today, Jared is the CEO and Chairman of Shift4 Payments, a publicly held leading provider of integrated payment processing and technology solutions, and a cofounder of Draken International, which provides mission-critical commercial military flight services to the US Department of Defense. While others reach for the sky, Jared aspires to infinity and beyond as a commercial astronaut, with his personally funded Inspiration4 venture becoming the first all-civilian mission to space when it launched in September 2021. Inspiration4 doubles as a worldwide charity campaign, calling attention to the mission of St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital, for which Jared has raised over $240 million. In today’s episode, you’ll learn more about the upcoming Polaris Dawn mission, which is set to launch in the fourth quarter of 2022. Listen in as Jared shares his passion for spaceflight to further human space exploration, some of the tangible philosophies that he took from SpaceX, and the additional business models he believes could arise from reusable rocket ships, as well as his recommended reads and more! Every single thing that SpaceX builds along the way can be monetized and opens up new [business] opportunities.” — @rookisaacman Key Points from this Episode An introduction to Jared Isaacman: entrepreneur, philanthropist, and civilian astronaut. When his journey into aerospace began and the timeline from pipe dream to space mission. The important role that philanthropy played in the Inspiration4 mission. Three tangible philosophies that Jared took from SpaceX and implemented at Shift4. Insight into Starlink and how the Polaris Program fits into their objectives. Intrinsic motivations for the Polaris Dawn mission and the private investment dollars that make it possible. Polaris’ responsibilities, including testing the spacesuits manufactured by SpaceX. The interest that the Polaris Dawn mission has garnered from the public. Speculating on the additional business models that could arise from reusable rockets. Justifying the investment it would take to get to Mars and the many social and psychological issues that would need to be resolved beforehand. Why Jared says the least enjoyable part of the Inspiration4 mission was coming home. How a multi-talented entrepreneur like Jared juggles his numerous responsibilities. The flexibility (and scrutiny) he experienced as a public company CEO going to space. Find out how Shift4’s employee base responded to going public. Jared’s perspective on the strategic landscape in the payment space, given the crosscurrents that are occurring. Why he believes FinTech business owners go to space: pure fascination, not pure capital. An appreciation for checklists and being procedurally driven, both in business and in life. Recommended reads, including the SpaceX story, Liftoff, and Mercury Rising. Jared shares one of his ‘white whales’; a challenge he is still seeking to overcome.

Emily Fassi stumbled across the field of genetic counseling when she was trying to figure out what she could do with her biology degree. Today, she is the Lead Genetic Counselor for the St. Luke’s Health System, specializing in hereditary cancer predisposition. Since genetic counseling came into existence as a profession, it has evolved an enormous amount, and continues to change at a rapid rate. In this episode, Emily explains what her role as a genetic counselor entails, why this work is so important, where the main limitations lie, and what she hopes the field will look like in the future. Emily’s passion for the genetic counseling realm is palpable, and this episode is full of fascinating information about a relatively little-known field which will intrigue medical and non-medical professionals alike! “Our genetic testing capabilities are changing so quickly that it is literally a full-time job just to keep up with the changes in the genetic testing space.” — @EmilyFassi Key Points from this Episode Emily explains what her work as a genetic counselor entails. How the genetics and medical fields complement one another. Continuous evolution that is taking place in the field of genetics. How Emily found out about genetic counseling, and what drew her to the field. Levels of detail that genetic counselors are able to provide their patients with, in comparison to physicians. Emily’s experience working in the pediatric and rare disease counseling realm, and how this contrasts to the oncology genetic counseling realm she is now working in. The process of deciding which genetics tests to do on a patient. Germline versus somatic mutations, and the increasing frequency of paired testing. Limitations of the guidelines around who should have genetic testing. Comparing polygenic and monogenic testing, and why Emily is excited about the former. Changes that Emily hopes to see take place in the genetic counseling field in the future. Some of the factors that lead to preventable cancers not being picked up early enough.