Today on the show we discuss our Tesla Valuation model and how we came to our 2026 price target for a Tesla share. You will hear from three analysts on how they constructed the valuation, their methodology, and what they project for 2026. Tasha Keeney shares her thoughts on why electric is the future of autonomous technology, Will Summerlin unpacks the potential opportunities for AI within foundational models, and Sam Korus explains why batteries are the single biggest cost component in Tesla’s vehicles. We also cover the results of the Monte Carlo analysis, with an overview of how it functions, and delve into the five key inputs that are the main drivers of this model. Today’s conversation offers insights into our dynamic valuation model! Read the full valuation blog here. “One of the biggest potential markets that we see in AI is autonomous driving and we think that all vehicles in the future, all passenger cars will be electric.” — @TashaARK Key Points from this Episode Introducing our latest Tesla Valuation model and 2026 price target. An overview of our top-down and bottom-up research methodology. A breakdown of Wright’s law and why it applies to battery production. The potential opportunities for AI within foundational models. Our views on why the future of autonomous driving cars is electric. How autonomous driving cars are expected to lower the cost of driving. The Monte Carlo analysis and the role it’s played in this valuation’s methodology. The five key inputs that are the main drivers of this model. How to access the valuation model on Github. Why the launch year and time of adoption is the single biggest driver for this model. Information on how to reach out to us for questions and queries on our model. DISCLOSURE The forecasted performance and price estimates herein are subject to revision by ARK and provided solely as a guide to current expectations. There can be no expectation that the specific security will achieve such performance or that there will be a return of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. FORECASTED PERFORMANCE RESULTS ARE HYPOTHETICAL AND HIGHLY SPECULATIVE, AND PRESENT MANY RISKS AND LIMITATIONS.  The recipient should not consider these estimated prices alone in making an investment decision. While ARK believes that there is a sound basis for the forecasts presented, no representations are made as to their accuracy, and there can be no assurance that such forecasts or returns will be achieved by the specific security. The recipient is urged to use extreme caution when considering the forecasted performance, as it is inherently subjective and reflects ARK’s inherent bias toward higher expected returns. Any higher returns should be viewed as a measure of the relative risk of such investments, with higher forecasted performance generally reflecting greater risk. There is no guarantee that any results will align with the forecasted performance, and they might not be predictive.  Some or all results may be substantially lower than projected results and, as with any investment, it is possible that you could lose money. FORECASTED performance results (single security model simulation forecasts) have many inherent limitations. A recipient account might or might not hold this single security, and the account performance will be affected in proportion to its holding size and the amount of price fluctuation over time. No representation is being made that any client account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses tied to a security in the security model forecasts. In fact, there could be significant differences between these forecasted performance results and the actual results realized. Forecasted performance has not been achieved by the security, and like all modeled, projected or hypothetical performance, it is important to note that there are multiple versions of a model, and ARK has a conflict of interest in that we have an incentive to show you the best performing results. These forecasts rely on models, which calculate hypothetical performance. Several of the limitations of hypothetical performance models include: 1) reliance on a variety of data obtained from sources that are believed to be reliable, but might be incorrect, inaccurate or incomplete and ARK does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information obtained from any third party, 2) potential inclusion of inherent model creation biases, data discrepancies and/or calculation errors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected, 3) NO reflection of the impact that material economic and market factors might have had on investment decisions that would have been in actual portfolios being managed at the time and do not involve market risk, and 4) NO guarantee of future investment results. The forecasted results rely on assumptions, forecasts, estimates, modeling, algorithms and other data input by ARK, some of which relies on third-parties, that could be or prove over time to be incorrect, inaccurate or incomplete. The forecasted returns are based on a variety of criteria and assumptions, which might vary substantially, and involve significant elements of subjective judgment and analysis that reflect our own expectations and biases, which might prove invalid or change without notice. It is possible that other foreseeable events that were not taken into account could occur. The forecasted performance results contained herein represent the application of the simulation models as currently in effect on the date first written above, and there can be no assurance that the models will remain the same in the future or that an application of the current models in the future will produce similar results because the relevant market and economic conditions that prevailed during the performance period will not necessarily occur. The results will not be updated as the models change, or any information upon which they rely changes. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the public equity security specifically that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of forecasted performance results, all of which can adversely affect actual results. For these reasons, forecasted performance results will differ, and could differ significantly from actual results. FORECASTED PERFORMANCE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO REVISION AND PRESENTED FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY. While ARK’s current assessment of the subject company may be positive, please note that it might be necessary for ARK to liquidate or reduce position sizes prior to the company attaining any forecasted valuation pricing due to a variety of conditions including, but not limited to, client specific guidelines, changing market conditions, investor activity, fundamental changes in the company’s business model and competitive landscape, headline risk, and government/regulatory activity. Additionally, ARK does not have investment banking, consulting, or any type of fee-paying relationship with the subject company.

Long before the concepts of the Metaverse and cryptocurrency became widely understood, Second Life was already a thriving virtual metropolis running off its own monetary system. In today’s episode, we have the pleasure of hearing from its inventor, Philip Rosedale, about how technology has evolved since he founded Second Life, and how he hopes it is going to continue to evolve in the future. Angie Dalton also joins in on the conversation to share her perspective on what is going on in the virtual world. Our conversation covers everything from avatars to the uncanny valley to the potential of the Metaverse to eliminate loneliness, so don’t miss this one! “Second Life was this experiment to build one single, large, virtual world that everybody was in together and that had land and would allow people to build things together in any way they wanted to.” — @philiprosedale Key Points from this Episode Philip’s two main interests that catalyzed the founding of Second Life. Technological changes that took place in the late ’90’s, which were the final push that Philip needed to found Second Life in 1999. What the early years of founding Second Life looked like. The goal of Second Life, and what makes it unique. Philip shares some statistics which give an indication of the size of Second Life today. Characteristics built into the Second Life currency that allowed it to work as well as it has. Reasons that Second Life didn’t run into many regulatory issues when they were starting out. Angie’s thoughts on how to democratize crypto inside games. Facets of the Metaverse that Philip is particularly interested in seeing the evolution of. The problem that Philip and his team at High Fidelity have developed technology to solve. What Philip believes one of the main goals of technological advancements should be. A sad truth about our online connections. Some of the pros and cons of trustless economies. Why allowing for the ability to trade virtually is essential to the success of the Metaverse. The next step that is required to take the Metaverse to the next level. Philip explains the concept of the ‘uncanny valley’. Changes that Philip expects to see in virtual worlds in the next 5 years. What Angie is most excited about in the virtual reality space.

The FinTech industry has had its fair share of young entrepreneurs, but few are quite as interesting as Jared Isaacman, a New Jersey native and high school dropout who founded his first startup when he was just 16. Today, Jared is the CEO and Chairman of Shift4 Payments, a publicly held leading provider of integrated payment processing and technology solutions, and a cofounder of Draken International, which provides mission-critical commercial military flight services to the US Department of Defense. While others reach for the sky, Jared aspires to infinity and beyond as a commercial astronaut, with his personally funded Inspiration4 venture becoming the first all-civilian mission to space when it launched in September 2021. Inspiration4 doubles as a worldwide charity campaign, calling attention to the mission of St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital, for which Jared has raised over $240 million. In today’s episode, you’ll learn more about the upcoming Polaris Dawn mission, which is set to launch in the fourth quarter of 2022. Listen in as Jared shares his passion for spaceflight to further human space exploration, some of the tangible philosophies that he took from SpaceX, and the additional business models he believes could arise from reusable rocket ships, as well as his recommended reads and more! Every single thing that SpaceX builds along the way can be monetized and opens up new [business] opportunities.” — @rookisaacman Key Points from this Episode An introduction to Jared Isaacman: entrepreneur, philanthropist, and civilian astronaut. When his journey into aerospace began and the timeline from pipe dream to space mission. The important role that philanthropy played in the Inspiration4 mission. Three tangible philosophies that Jared took from SpaceX and implemented at Shift4. Insight into Starlink and how the Polaris Program fits into their objectives. Intrinsic motivations for the Polaris Dawn mission and the private investment dollars that make it possible. Polaris’ responsibilities, including testing the spacesuits manufactured by SpaceX. The interest that the Polaris Dawn mission has garnered from the public. Speculating on the additional business models that could arise from reusable rockets. Justifying the investment it would take to get to Mars and the many social and psychological issues that would need to be resolved beforehand. Why Jared says the least enjoyable part of the Inspiration4 mission was coming home. How a multi-talented entrepreneur like Jared juggles his numerous responsibilities. The flexibility (and scrutiny) he experienced as a public company CEO going to space. Find out how Shift4’s employee base responded to going public. Jared’s perspective on the strategic landscape in the payment space, given the crosscurrents that are occurring. Why he believes FinTech business owners go to space: pure fascination, not pure capital. An appreciation for checklists and being procedurally driven, both in business and in life. Recommended reads, including the SpaceX story, Liftoff, and Mercury Rising. Jared shares one of his ‘white whales’; a challenge he is still seeking to overcome.

Emily Fassi stumbled across the field of genetic counseling when she was trying to figure out what she could do with her biology degree. Today, she is the Lead Genetic Counselor for the St. Luke’s Health System, specializing in hereditary cancer predisposition. Since genetic counseling came into existence as a profession, it has evolved an enormous amount, and continues to change at a rapid rate. In this episode, Emily explains what her role as a genetic counselor entails, why this work is so important, where the main limitations lie, and what she hopes the field will look like in the future. Emily’s passion for the genetic counseling realm is palpable, and this episode is full of fascinating information about a relatively little-known field which will intrigue medical and non-medical professionals alike! “Our genetic testing capabilities are changing so quickly that it is literally a full-time job just to keep up with the changes in the genetic testing space.” — @EmilyFassi Key Points from this Episode Emily explains what her work as a genetic counselor entails. How the genetics and medical fields complement one another. Continuous evolution that is taking place in the field of genetics. How Emily found out about genetic counseling, and what drew her to the field. Levels of detail that genetic counselors are able to provide their patients with, in comparison to physicians. Emily’s experience working in the pediatric and rare disease counseling realm, and how this contrasts to the oncology genetic counseling realm she is now working in. The process of deciding which genetics tests to do on a patient. Germline versus somatic mutations, and the increasing frequency of paired testing. Limitations of the guidelines around who should have genetic testing. Comparing polygenic and monogenic testing, and why Emily is excited about the former. Changes that Emily hopes to see take place in the genetic counseling field in the future. Some of the factors that lead to preventable cancers not being picked up early enough.

The technology for geothermal heating and cooling of homes has been around for decades, but several factors have prevented this technology from scaling in the United States — until recently. The heating and cooling of buildings is responsible for around 20% of US greenhouse gas emissions, and a greater awareness of the negative impacts of these gasses, combined with an increase in the price of fossil fuels, has created conditions for geothermal energy companies to thrive. Today’s guest is Kathy Hannun, the founder and President of Dandelion Energy, which is privately held, and the largest home geothermal company in the United States. Before founding Dandelion, she was a Rapid Evaluator at X, Alphabet’s innovation lab, where she focused on identifying business opportunities to harness technology for large-scale positive impact. She initiated Dandelion as an X project and then launched it into an independent startup company in May 2017. In today’s episode you will learn about the process behind heating/cooling your house in this way, and the money a household might save by going this route. Kathy also explains how she became involved in the geothermal energy space, and how she and her team are overcoming the challenges of working in this rapidly growing industry. “Buildings are responsible for about 20% of US greenhouse gas emissions. So it’s a huge problem. [Geothermal energy] seemed like a potentially very good way to solve it.” — @kathyhannun Key Points from this Episode Kathy explains how geothermal heating and cooling works in a home environment. The contribution of the heating/cooling of buildings to the US’s total greenhouse gas emissions. Factors that have made it possible to scale geothermal energy in recent years, as Dandelion Energy is doing. Vertical integration that Kathy has incorporated into the Dandelion Energy business model. Differences between the solar energy and geothermal energy industries. Incentives that are used to encourage the purchasing of heat pumps. The variety of factors that make one heat pump different from another. Why many new home builders are opposed to installing heat pumps, and how Kathy and her team are working to overcome this obstacle. Kathy’s experience working at X, and how her ties to the company have benefited Dandelion Energy. The money that a household might save on operating costs when using a geothermal heating/cooling system as opposed to a fossil fuel-based energy source. Dandelion Energy’s biggest challenge at the moment. Kathy explains the process of figuring out what the size of a ground loop should be. Examples of homes that are not well suited to geothermal technologies, and how Dandelion Energy is trying to work around these limitations. Who should consider getting a geothermal heat pump, and who should look into air source heat pumps instead.

Joining us on For Your Innovation today, are Chris Quilty and Caleb Henry. Chris is the Founder and Partner of Quilty Analytics, a privately held, integrated financial research, investment banking and strategic advisory boutique exclusively serving the satellite and space industry. Caleb is Quilty Analytics Senior Analyst. In this episode, we discuss the developments of the space industry from its shift towards commercial revenue to its efforts towards reusability. We delve into the hybrid architecture that is proving to be the most successful, in terms of satellites, and speculate the causes for launch delays and budget overshoots. Our guests fill us in on the various contributors to the verticalization of the industry and summarize and contextualize the current constellation projects that are in motion. Tune in to find out what the SPAC boom means for the space industry and what exciting developments we have to look forward to! “That drive by SpaceX to radically change launch costs has just opened up the spigot on all sorts of different business models that previously you could have never justified.” — Chris Quilty Key Points From This Episode: What Quilty Analytics is and what led Chris Quilty to found the company. Quilty Analytics’ Senior Analyst, Caleb Henry shares his professional background. The evolution of the space industry and what has changed. The space industry’s shift from government revenue towards commercial revenue. The efforts towards reusability in the space industry. The benefits of hybrid satellite architecture, using LEOs, GEOs, MEOs, and HEOs. What generally causes the budget overshoots and delays of constellation launches. Contributors to the verticalization of the industry. The viability of the five constellations currently going forward. The motivations behind each constellation. Why venture capital investors are investing in the space industry. The significance of 2021’s SPAC boom, given the history of space funding. The myriad of space industry developments Caleb is excited about! How decreasing launch costs will accelerate progress in the industry.

On this episode, we bring you an excerpt from our Big Ideas Summit 2022, which was presented live on January 25, 2022. MSNBC’s Chris Hayes interviews our CEO and CIO, Cathie Wood on a wide range of topics spanning all of our big ideas. Cathie shares insights into the world’s current climate of innovation and technology, as well as her predictions for the future. We learn about the move from fossil fuel extraction to new emerging technologies, and what is predicted to contribute towards the shift to renewable energy. Cathie fills us in on how Bitcoin mining could accelerate this shift and how Tesla’s solar roofs can change the solar energy game. We discover how AI is converging with blockchain technology to help solve the world’s problems, and with the genomic space to help cure disease. This is an episode you won’t want to miss. Tune in to learn more about the five major innovation platforms that are simultaneously evolving today, not to mention the three significant revolutions we believe are taking place right now! For the full big ideas presentation click here. “The digital and the physical world finally are converging because the technology is ready and, just as important, the costs are low enough.” — @CathieDWood Key Points From This Episode: Cathie’s predictions of the future in terms of innovation and technology. We believe that five major innovation platforms simultaneously evolving. What is contributing to the move from fossil fuel extraction to new emerging technologies. The cost declines in emerging technologies. Cathie predicts how Tesla’s solar roofs will change the game. How Bitcoin mining could accelerate the shift towards renewable energy. How AI is converging with other innovative technologies to solve the world’s problems. The three revolutions simultaneously taking place right now! The monetary revolution and the profound ramifications predicted as a result of Bitcoin. The role of decentralized finance in the financial services revolution. Cathie describes NFTs and their role in the next-generation Internet revolution.

Please note: as of 12/31/21, ARK’s clients own greater than 1% of the shares outstanding of Beam Therapeutics. Base editing, and gene editing as a broader industry, are a major focus of our research at ARK, and a major piece of DNA Sequencing, one of our 5 technology platforms. To dive deeper into the world of base editing, Analyst Ali Urman sits down with industry expert, Beam Therapeutics CEO John Evans. Evans was previously a Venture Partner with ARCH Venture Partners and an early employee and member of the leadership team at Agios Pharmaceuticals. At Agios, he helped develop IDHIFA and TIBSOVO, two IDH inhibitors for the treatment of acute myeloid leukemia (AML), helped initiate and lead Agios’ landmark alliance with Celgene, and co-led Agios’s expansion into rare genetic diseases. On this episode, Ali and John discuss the falling costs of medicine, the convergence of 3D Printing and Base Editing, Base Editing’s applications for chronic illness, the total opportunity of the gene editing space and much more! “Every base in the genome can be toggled, and, so, every base that has function, we can change that function” – @john_evans3 Key Points From This Episode: John’s favorite poet, Wallace Stevens Medicine’s cost declines and what that means for patients The efficiency of of Multiplex Gene Editing (MGE) The convergence between and potential of 3D Printing and Gene Editing The many colors of CRISPR Gene Editing Base editing applications for chronic illnesses The intersection between Base Editing and Prime Editing Beam Therapeutic’s partnerships with Pfizer and Verve Measuring the opportunity in the Base Editing space The potential total market opportunity in the gene editing space The CRISPR patent ruling and its impact on the genomics field What John finds interesting about Twitter and why he is so active on the platform

The fields of genetics and genomics have been a cornerstone of our interest at ARK, and subjects we have explored in the past on the For You Innovation podcast. Today, analyst Simon Barnett dives a little deeper into this world, as we host Ivan Liachko, the CEO and Co-Founder of Phase Genomics, to talk about the company and the amazing technological strides that are being made. Phase Genomics is a private company with a portfolio of laboratory and computational services and products. Ivan explains a little about ultra-long-range sequencing technology, and how this is enabling Phase to assemble chromosomes in ways that were previously impossible. He also unpacks the idea of looking at the field through the lens of capturing information, and how each advancement allows us to more accurately capture useful information for certain applications. We discuss the tools that the company has been focused on developing, how these can shine a light on the mysteries of the human microbiome, and the practical applications of these innovations for healthcare and beyond. Ivan talks about how his work relates to cancer and the broader study of viruses, and the hope this is instilling for future cures and prevention! “Most of life is information, and what genetics and genomics try to do is extract that information.” — @ivanliachko Key Points From This Episode: Looking back at Phase Genomics in 2018 and the work they did on the Puerto Rican genome. The basics of ultra long-range sequencing technology and how it is changing the genome field. Ivan’s jigsaw analogy for conceptualizing how this new technology operates. Broadening the conversation and applying the technology to more practical problems. How Phase Genomics is changing the way oncology samples are being read. The value of fresh frozen plasma samples and why this is only now being able to be realized. Making use of older studies and samples with new technology. The tricky role and responsibility of scientists to share only the desired information. More visualizations of how cross-linking in this technology works. The complexity of the microbial world and the importance of understanding it for healthcare. How the valuable information that can now be captured affects the way we can deal with viruses. The huge variance that is present in human microbiomes and the problems this has posed in creating a baseline. Ivan’s hopes for development and achievements in the oncological and microbial genetics spaces. Where to learn more about what Phase Genomics is busy with currently!

Today’s guest is Dr. Christyl Johnson, the Deputy Director for Technology and Research Investments at the Goddard Space Flight Center. Dr. Johnson joins us to share a behind-the-scenes view of the innovations coming out of the Goddard Flight Center and the role that she plays in the process. Analyst’s Sam Korus and Tasha Keeney speak with Dr. Johnson about her experiences as an intern at the Langley Research Center and what she loves most about working for NASA, an environment built on the foundations of out-of-the-box thinking and creativity. We hear more about Dr. Johnson’s role at the Goddard Flight Center in forming strategic partnerships between government and private sectors to develop technology for future missions in Earth science, astrophysics, heliophysics, and planetary science. Our conversation also covers some of the research currently being done at Goddard on solar storms, algorithms for processing satellite imaging system information, space telescopes, and much more. Tuning in, listeners will also hear about the skillsets that are most in-demand at Goddard, the importance of diversity for creative problem solving, and the immense process of guiding project invitation from ideation to solution. “We of course are developing the imaging capability and the satellite information systems. But it is the back part, where you do the analysis of that information, where the innovation really comes in.” — @CJohnsonNASA Key Points From This Episode: Dr. Johnson’s experiences as an intern at the Langley Research Center. The work Dr. Johnson does as Deputy Director for Technology and Research Investments at the Goddard Space Flight Center. When it is more appropriate for public versus private industries to develop the technologies NASA uses. Improvements in technology Dr. Johnson has seen during her time at Goddard. Innovations in the algorithms that process information from satellite imaging systems. Dr. Johnson’s ideas for new methods of navigation that use pulsars, not GPS. What role the Goddard Space Center plays in the development of NASA technology. Research on solar storms, planetary and lunar Science, space telescopes, and a lunar net system. The six campuses that make up the Goddard Space Center. Why NASA places so much emphasis on safety precautions near launch sites. How many people work at the center and which percent are PhDs. The importance of diversity and outside opinions to avoid groupthink. Why the Goddard team has such a strong need for systems engineers. What the process from ideation to solution looks like at Goddard.