Daniel Davis Deep Dive

Five days before the planned Alaska meeting between Trump and Putin, aimed at ending the war, tensions are high among four key stakeholders — Russia, the U.S., Ukraine, and Europe — whose positions overlap in some areas but often conflict, especially on the Western side.Trump has floated a plan involving territorial swaps, suggesting Russia might give up small footholds in Sumy and Kharkiv in exchange for Ukrainian withdrawal from parts of the Donbas or other occupied areas. While this might be acceptable to Putin for less strategic areas, the real sticking point is the larger territories in eastern and southern Ukraine that Russia has controlled since 2024, which Putin demands Ukraine vacate entirely.Trump expects Zelensky to “sign something” formalizing territorial changes, but Zelensky has firmly rejected land swaps or validating Russia’s seizures, insisting instead on an immediate, unconditional ceasefire — something Trump has not prioritized. Past Trump deadlines for securing peace have repeatedly lapsed, and his current focus is on land deals rather than halting the fighting.The clash is clear: Trump is preparing for a deal involving concessions, while Zelensky refuses to legitimize territorial loss. European positions are similarly tied to ideals rather than on-the-ground realities, while Russia holds and consolidates its gains. Sanctions have failed to shift Moscow’s stance, leaving the negotiations set against a stark imbalance of power that favors Russia.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

ALASKA SUMMIT: Zelensky Rejects Land Concessions /Lt Col Daniel DavisSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Ongoing uncertainty surrounds a possible Trump–Putin meeting aimed at ending or clarifying the Russia–Ukraine war. Disputes remain over whether Ukrainian President Zelensky should be involved, with Trump saying it’s not required despite earlier signals from U.S. officials. Zelensky is frustrated about Ukraine and Europe being sidelined.Today was supposed to be Trump’s deadline for Putin to accept an unconditional 30-day ceasefire or face tariffs. Instead, Trump left it “up to Putin” and no Russia sanctions have been issued—though India unexpectedly received higher tariffs earlier in the week.Russia is open to a limited “air ceasefire” (pausing aerial attacks) as a confidence-building step, but refuses a full ceasefire that would aid Ukraine’s resupply. Trump is exploring possible meeting sites, with the UAE and Rome discussed. Behind the scenes, there are hints Moscow might be more serious about negotiations than before, though their core demands remain unchanged publicly.The situation remains fluid, with mixed diplomatic signals, no clear meeting date or place, and competing priorities between U.S., Russian, Ukrainian, and European interests.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

President Trump met with Indian Prime Minister Modi in India, with discussions focused on trade, defense cooperation, and security. Trump used the visit to showcase strong U.S.–India ties and signal a united front against China.A major highlight was Trump’s announcement that the U.S. would increase tariffs on certain Indian imports, a move that surprised many given the visit’s otherwise friendly tone. The tariffs are part of a broader U.S. trade policy push for better market access and protection of American industries.Defense talks included the sale of advanced U.S. helicopters and plans for deeper military coordination in the Indo-Pacific, reinforcing both nations’ role in countering Chinese influence in the region.Culturally, the trip featured large public rallies and heavy emphasis on personal rapport between Trump and Modi, aimed at projecting political strength for both leaders at home.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Danny criticizes President Trump for adopting a far more militaristic approach than his campaign promises of ending wars and pursuing peace. Using the example of Trump designating Mexican drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, the speaker warns that U.S. military intervention in Mexico to target cartels could escalate into a larger, more dangerous conflict—similar to past failed interventions in Afghanistan, Iraq, and elsewhere, which often strengthened the enemy and prolonged violence.They argue that military force rarely solves such problems, instead creating blowback, new enemies, and long-term entanglements. The pattern—whether in the Middle East, Africa, or now potentially in Mexico—shows a reliance on force over diplomacy, ignoring non-military solutions that could lead to sustainable, mutually beneficial outcomes. The concern is that Trump’s mindset now defaults to military responses for a wide range of issues, from foreign conflicts to domestic crime, reinforcing a cycle of endless interventions without resolving root causes.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The discussion centers on the implausibility and strategic dysfunction surrounding the proposed Trump–Putin summit and the broader conflict dynamics involving Ukraine. Key themes include:🔴 U.S. Ownership of the WarBiden is deeply involved in the Ukraine war, supplying weapons, intelligence, and support—thus, he "owns" the war.Critics argue he should stop deflecting blame onto his predecessor (Trump) and accept responsibility as commander-in-chief.🟡 Putin–Zelensky–Trump Meeting? Highly UnlikelyDespite Trump suggesting a trilateral summit (with Zelensky joining him and Putin), the prospect is highly improbable:Russia considers Zelensky illegitimate (term expired, no elections).Putin will not agree unless Zelensky is already prepared to accept Russia’s demands—a scenario seen as extremely unlikely.Zelensky’s motivation: He wants a media spectacle to reframe himself as a global hero, which Russia sees as political theater, not diplomacy.🔵 Internal Pressures on ZelenskyZelensky cannot make significant concessions without risking a mutiny or backlash from Ukrainian hardliners and nationalists.His government is seen as out of mandate, fragile, and threatened from within.Russia is well aware of this and sees direct negotiations with him as a waste of time.⚪ Critique of Trump’s RoleAnalysts argue Trump lacks understanding of the war's context, history, and stakes.Meeting Putin without a substantive grasp of the conflict could be meaningless.There’s no new U.S. diplomatic position or detail to suggest this is a turning point.🔶 U.S. and Allies’ Strategy: Leverage Through PressureFigures like Mike Gallagher and Lindsey Graham frame Trump's position as strong, claiming:Threats of sanctions and military deployments (like nuclear subs) gave Trump negotiating power.Gallagher claims Putin "blinked" due to these pressures.Analysts dispute this narrative, arguing:Russia isn’t conceding due to U.S. threats.Leverage-based approaches have failed repeatedly and reflect a flawed understanding of Russia’s position and resilience.⚫ The Flawed U.S. PlaybookU.S. hardliners (and some European allies like the UK) cling to outdated Cold War strategies:Relying on sanctions, military posturing, and time to "break" Russia.Believing that economic and military pressure alone can bring Moscow to its knees.These policies ignore:Russia’s strategic patience and internal unity.Global shifts in oil trade (e.g., India reselling Russian oil).The ineffectiveness of sanctions and the potential for backlash (e.g., targeting India and China with secondary sanctions).🔺 Conclusion: No Breakthrough, Just StagnationWithout new U.S. policy direction or understanding, the situation is set to stagnate.Analysts predict the same cycles repeating into 2026 or beyond, with little progress.Current approaches are seen as performative, disconnected from geopolitical and military realities, and ultimately ineffective at resolving the conflict.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

U.S. Strategy Towards TAIWAN: Assist or NOT? /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Jennifer KavanaughSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The discussion outlines Russia’s growing military advantage in Ukraine, the West’s lack of effective defenses against certain Russian capabilities, and Moscow’s deterrence posture through systems like the “dead hand.”Putin frames NATO’s eastward expansion—particularly treating Ukraine as a de facto member since the late 1990s—as the root cause of the conflict, citing NATO training, military exercises, and the use of Ukrainian bases as evidence.On the Western side, there’s political friction: Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán, once a strong Trump supporter, now doubts Trump’s ability to rein in Europe or change Ukraine policy, suggesting Western leaders can manipulate Trump while he remains focused mainly on financial deals.Trump’s actions, including accelerating a decision deadline and surrounding himself with hawkish advisers, are seen as hardening Kremlin positions, reducing diplomatic options, and potentially pushing the war toward a more dangerous phase.On the battlefield, Russia is advancing in key areas, tightening control over supply routes, and inflicting heavy Ukrainian casualties—reportedly matching Russian figures—alongside severe desertion rates.Analysts warn that logistical pressure, psychological fatigue among long-serving troops, and Russia’s deliberate targeting of supply lines could cause Ukraine’s military to collapse within months.If this happens, it could lead to a decisive Russian victory and terms of surrender, undermining NATO’s credibility and possibly threatening its survival, while risking further escalation—especially if the UK or others launch attacks on Russian assets.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Col Doug Macgregor: Russia's Warning to U.S. & NATOSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The discussion is a scathing critique of U.S. foreign and military policy, especially as it relates to the conflict in Ukraine and the approach toward Russia. The key speaker—Andrei Marti—argues that:Washington lacks strategic understanding: U.S. policymakers and military leaders, brought up in a disconnected environment, do not understand real war, war economies, or long-term strategy. They rely on flawed analysis and unrealistic assumptions.Sanctions backfiring: Russian resilience has increased under Western sanctions. Many Russians even joke that sanctions accelerate their independence from the West. Countries like India and China are watching and adapting, with China actively reducing its U.S. Treasury holdings.Trump’s role: Trump is portrayed as clueless and dangerously incompetent, accelerating global shifts without understanding the consequences. His foreign policy is labeled as performative and counterproductive, weakening U.S. credibility.U.S. military leadership is ridiculed: Retired generals like Ben Hodges are called out for their unrealistic assessments of the war, such as claiming Russia is failing because it hasn't taken a single town. Marti argues that these figures lack real combat experience and misrepresent facts on the ground.No real strategists in Washington: According to Marti, U.S. military and policy elites suffer from a fundamental lack of understanding of military realities. Many American generals are considered a "meme" in Russia due to their detachment from real war conditions.Secondary sanctions won’t work: Analysts like Rebecca Grant are criticized for pushing secondary sanctions without explaining how they would actually shift Russian behavior. The belief that economic pressure alone will force Putin to act against his own interests is seen as naïve and baseless.Only a few understand Russia: Marti highlights Colonel Lester Grau as one of the only credible U.S. military figures with actual knowledge of Russia, based on experience and language skills. Most so-called "experts" are dismissed as unqualified.Overall Message: The U.S. foreign policy establishment is delusional and strategically bankrupt, clinging to sanctions and narratives that ignore military realities and geopolitical shifts. Meanwhile, Russia adapts, mocks Western missteps, and waits for the inevitable collapse of flawed American policies.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.