Daniel Davis Deep Dive

Russia has launched its largest wave of air attacks against Ukraine so far in the war—over 700 in a single night—marking a sharp escalation in the conflict. This follows recent surges of 500 and 550 air attacks on consecutive days, totaling over 1,700 strikes within a short period. The strikes, involving drones (mostly Shahed), cruise missiles, and hypersonic weapons, are devastating Ukrainian infrastructure and air defenses.Analysts suggest that Russia has held back in earlier phases of the war but is now shifting tactics. This new wave of attacks signals a possible transition from what Moscow once called a “special military operation” to what they now frame as an “anti-terror operation,” suggesting greater intensity and less restraint going forward.Russia appears to have overwhelming industrial and missile production capacity, and its strategy may now involve systematically disabling Ukraine’s air defenses to eventually enable full-scale aerial campaigns. Observers cite the precedent of Russia’s highly coordinated and destructive air operations in Syria (e.g., Operation Aleppo) as a warning of what may come next.There’s also a geopolitical context: pressures from simultaneous regional issues (e.g., tensions in the Caucasus, challenges in the Middle East, strained ties with Turkey) may be prompting Moscow to accelerate its efforts in Ukraine to avoid overextension. Analysts like Patrick Henningsen and Col. Douglas Macgregor speculate that Russia may be seeking to wrap up the conflict sooner due to these broader strategic concerns.Additionally, Russia’s escalation is triggering renewed anxiety among Ukraine’s Western backers. The U.S., particularly under Trump’s shifting posture, faces questions about whether its support will arrive too late or even matter at this point. Russia, for now, controls the pace of the war, dictating both military and political responses from the West.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The speaker argues that the United States did not start the war with Iran, nor does Iran want the war to continue. Iran's leadership emphasizes peaceful intentions, national unity, and positive relations with neighbors. The speaker affirms that Iran has been mischaracterized in the West as an irrational, dangerous state bent on acquiring and using nuclear weapons — a claim lacking actual evidence.Key points:Iran claims peace-seeking intentions and denies pursuing nuclear weapons, citing a religious fatwa against them.Negotiations were ongoing before Israeli strikes, and Trump was reportedly trying to reach a diplomatic resolution, albeit one that prevented Iran from ever acquiring nuclear weapons.Iran's military posture is described as defensive and restrained, even when provoked repeatedly by Israeli and U.S. actions, including assassinations and strikes.U.S. and Israeli justifications for military action lack verifiable evidence; intelligence from both the U.S. and international bodies (like the IAEA) consistently show no active Iranian nuclear weapons program.Therefore, any military attacks on Iran, especially preemptive ones, are characterized as illegal under international law and not acts of self-defense, since Iran poses no imminent threat.The speaker concludes that Iran is not an aggressive, irrational actor, but rather a relatively weak regional power more interested in regime survival and peace. Misrepresenting it as an existential threat fuels unjustified conflict.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The speaker, reflecting a pro-Russian perspective, asserts that the Russian public is fully united behind the war effort and views continued support for the military as a national duty. He insists that there will be no end to the war until Russia achieves total victory, dismissing the idea of a stalemate or negotiated peace as dangerous, likening it to a prelude to broader escalation like WWII.He mocks Western plans to rebuild Ukraine, claiming that in reality, Russia will rebuild and develop what it now considers “Russian” cities, and that Western companies will be excluded from that process. He highlights widespread popular mobilization in Russia—citizens sacrificing money, drones, and supplies—but warns that many Russians may underestimate how long the war will last.The speaker also emphasizes that Russia’s leadership, military, and society are committed to achieving their objectives laid out in Lavrov's peace plan and will not stop regardless of Western actions or timelines. He asserts that Russia is successfully advancing, degrading Ukrainian forces, and has no internal dissent.Regarding former President Trump, the speaker laughs off his recent criticisms of Putin and renewed support for Ukraine, suggesting U.S. actions and sanctions are irrelevant and ineffective. He argues the only impact of sanctions is logistical—delaying car parts—and predicts the U.S. will eventually abandon Ukraine, focusing instead on profiting from military aid rather than genuinely supporting Kyiv.Finally, the host closes by echoing this sentiment, calling Western support futile and expressing a desire for the war to end quickly to stop further bloodshed.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The segment centers on an interview with George Mamsurov, a Russian former soldier and current journalist, offering a Russian perspective on the ongoing war in Ukraine. The hosts clarify that Mamsurov is not a government spokesperson and that the channel seeks to provide multiple viewpoints—Ukrainian, Russian, European, and American—to help audiences understand the complexity of the conflict.Key Points:Technical Setup & Interview Context:The interview experienced delays due to translator coordination.Gary conducted the bulk of the interview after initial scheduling conflicts.Purpose of the Segment:To showcase the Russian side’s thinking about the war, particularly through the eyes of someone on the ground.Aims to balance this with upcoming interviews from Ukrainian perspectives.On Understanding Ukrainian Motivation:Mamsurov admits he doesn’t fully understand some Ukrainian actions or motivations, illustrating the disconnect in perspective.Drone Warfare as a Game-Changer:Mamsurov describes the war in 2022 and today as “two different wars.”Identifies five to six milestones in how warfare evolved—drones being the most important.Notes the rise of optical fiber-controlled drones and their dominance on the battlefield.80% of Modern Warfare (per Mamsurov) now involves:FPV (First-Person View) dronesKamikaze dronesSurveillance dronesRussia’s Drone Production Surge:Early in the war, neither side fully grasped drone warfare’s potential.Russia lagged behind initially but now mass-produces drones, giving them superior drone numbers, if not variety.Ukraine had a head start, partially due to lessons from the 2020 Armenia-Azerbaijan war, using drones like the Bayraktar.Impact on the Front Lines:Early in the war, journalists like Mamsurov didn’t even watch the skies.Today, that has drastically changed—being exposed, even briefly, is potentially lethal due to drones.Drones have made every movement deadly, even something as basic as leaving a trench.Strategic Impact:Drones now offer a cheap way to destroy high-value targets (e.g., tanks).Enable harassment of supply lines without endangering troops or expending costly artillery.Overall, the interview underscores how drone technology has revolutionized the battlefield, and how both sides—especially Russia—have evolved their approach dramatically since the war’s onset. The segment emphasizes the value of hearing from diverse voices to truly grasp the layered, shifting nature of this war.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Russian Perspective on Ukrainian Attacks, Air Defenses, and Strategic AdvancesThis segment continues the conversation with Russian journalist and former soldier George Mamsurov, providing insight into Russia’s view on Ukraine’s long-range attacks, drone warfare, and battlefield strategy in key regions like Zaporizhzhia and Pokrovsk.🔴 Ukrainian Attacks on Russian Territory: Limited EffectUkraine is targeting Russian cities and factories, but Mamsurov emphasizes:Russia’s vast size and dispersed infrastructure make such attacks less damaging.Unlike Ukraine, Russian production centers are harder to cripple due to scale and redundancy.Even when Ukraine launches 200 drones or missiles, most are intercepted with minimal effect on the front lines.Mamsurov argues that unless Ukrainian soldiers physically control territory, drone and missile attacks serve only as distractions, not decisive actions.🔴 Russia’s Defensive Capabilities and AdaptationRussia claims to use only Russian-made weapons, operated by Russian troops—creating a self-contained and adaptive military system.Russia has successfully adapted to advanced Western systems like:Bayraktar dronesHIMARS rocketsJavelins and other precision-guided munitionsMamsurov says these weapons were threatening early on, but Russia has developed effective countermeasures, citing air defense success and battlefield adjustments.🔴 Strategic Battlefield Goals in Southern UkraineFront line activity around Zaporizhzhia is described as significant, but not just about the city itself:The land is flat and lacks natural elevation, complicating defense and favoring rapid movement.Russia is pushing from the Donetsk region to potentially:Cut supply linesThreaten Pokrovsk (referred to as “Pakovsk” in the transcript), which is considered strategically more important than Zaporizhzhia.Capturing Pokrovsk would:Collapse Ukrainian defenses in the region.Open the way to liberate (i.e., capture) wider areas of the south, including Zaporizhzhia.🔴 Russian Operational Reserves & Penetration PlansIf Russia breaks through Ukrainian lines, it has operational reserves ready to exploit breaches.Mamsurov emphasizes the importance of logistics and control:Fast advances must be supported by supply lines.Russia is reportedly positioned to reinforce successful offensives rapidly.He notes that Pokrovsk is not the only potential point of collapse—there are multiple active pressure zones where Ukrainian defenses may fail.🟨 Core MessageRussia believes:Its size, self-sufficiency, and military adaptation make it resilient to Ukraine’s long-range strikes.Territory must be taken by infantry, not just bombed from afar.Strategically, Pokrovsk is key—its fall could shift the momentum decisively.Russia is prepared with reserves to take advantage of breakthroughs, indicating readiness for larger offensives.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The discussion centers on the absurdity of Donald Trump being considered for the Nobel Peace Prize, especially in light of ongoing wars and his contradictory actions. Trump’s supposed peace efforts are contrasted with his record of escalating conflicts, such as restarting arms shipments to Ukraine and authorizing bombings in Iran. Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson criticizes both Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, arguing that their rhetoric and policies contribute to, rather than resolve, conflicts—particularly in the Middle East.Netanyahu, in a recent statement, dismissed the idea of a two-state solution, citing Hamas’s October 7th attack and claiming it proves Palestinians can't be trusted with statehood. Johnson pushes back, labeling Netanyahu’s narrative as propaganda, pointing to lopsided casualty figures that suggest a genocide against Palestinians rather than mutual violence. He argues that the West, including Trump, is complicit in this by enabling Israeli actions while falsely portraying them as peaceful or defensive.The conversation concludes with outrage at the global silence over what is described as systemic, large-scale Palestinian suffering and a manipulated narrative that inverts victim and aggressor roles.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

About a week ago, former President Trump made a surprise announcement halting U.S. military aid to Ukraine, specifically cutting off critical defensive weapons like long-range interceptors and 155mm shells—vital components for Ukraine’s defense. This move shocked Ukrainian officials and led to urgent calls for clarification. It also triggered a flurry of international concern and phone calls between Trump, Putin, and Zelensky.However, during a recent press event following Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's visit to the White House, Trump reversed course, stating that the U.S. would continue sending primarily defensive weapons to Ukraine, as they are "getting hit very hard."Colonel Jacques Baud, a former Swiss intelligence officer, commented that Trump might be overestimating the leverage U.S. arms transfers provide. He also pointed out deeper systemic issues: the U.S. is running low on munitions and struggling to replenish its stockpiles due to supply chain challenges—particularly a shortage of rare earth materials, much of which come from China. China has recently restricted such exports to U.S. defense contractors, which could impact production of critical systems like missiles and even F-35s.Supporting this, on July 1, reports emerged that the Deputy Secretary of Defense had warned U.S. interceptor stockpiles were critically low, prompting a recommendation to suspend transfers to Ukraine. This led to public reassurances from U.S. officials, including Ambassador Whitaker, who framed the pause as part of an “America First” strategy to prioritize U.S. defense readiness.The Pentagon, sensing alarm at home and abroad, then walked back the panic, emphasizing this was a “capability review”—not a signal of weakness—and claimed the U.S. military remains fully capable and prepared, citing recent successful operations as proof.In essence, the controversy reveals:Strategic uncertainty and inconsistent messaging from the U.S.Internal concerns about munitions shortages and long-term sustainabilityThe growing impact of supply chain dependencies on geopolitical decisionsA fragile balance between supporting Ukraine and maintaining U.S. military readiness.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The discussion with Col. Douglas Macgregor explores rising tensions that suggest a growing risk of broader war between NATO and Russia, despite both sides claiming to seek deterrence. Putin has launched a new domestic mobilization campaign called the People’s Front, signaling a shift toward full-scale war preparation in Russia. While his rhetoric frames it as a civil unity movement, many Russians—including within his inner circle—are frustrated with the prolonged nature of the Ukraine conflict and expect total national mobilization to finish it decisively.Macgregor argues that Russia’s economy has adapted well to sanctions, and although the war has taken longer than expected, Russian losses are relatively low compared to Ukraine’s, which he claims have reached catastrophic levels (allegedly 1.7–1.8 million dead, though this number is highly controversial and not corroborated by independent sources).Beyond Ukraine, Russia faces new strategic problems in the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan, once a Russian ally, is now aligned with Israel, Turkey, and the U.S., and may be preparing to invade northwestern Iran—potentially triggering ethnic unrest among Azeris in Iran. Azerbaijan is also reportedly hosting Western intelligence operations (Mossad, CIA, MI6) targeting Iran. This threatens Iran’s internal stability and could lead to a new regional war.Meanwhile, Erdogan’s Turkey is pursuing its own ambitions in Syria and Lebanon, sometimes cooperating with Israel but with diverging goals. Russia, focused on Ukraine, may have lost control over its southern flank, creating a wider regional instability involving Iran, Israel, Turkey, and Syria. Macgregor suggests Moscow now realizes the urgency of ending the Ukraine war to reassert control over its broader strategic position.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Earlier this week, the U.S. announced it would stop sending 155mm artillery shells and air defense missiles to Ukraine. However, President Trump now appears to be reconsidering, saying the U.S. might send more Patriot interceptors after all. This comes amid ongoing, intense Russian air attacks — including recent strikes near Kyiv — that have overwhelmed Ukraine's limited air defenses.Trump acknowledged the need for these interceptors, calling them effective, but also downplayed expectations, admitting that a few missiles won’t change the war’s outcome. He cited recent attacks involving over 1,000 Russian drones and missiles in just two days — far beyond what Ukraine’s current defenses can handle. The U.S. can only produce about 600 interceptors per month, highlighting the scale of the problem.In public comments, Trump emphasized that he doesn’t want to see more people die but repeatedly framed the war as “Biden’s deal,” suggesting he may be positioning himself to step back from deeper U.S. involvement. His language lacked firm commitment, hinting that while he might send aid or enforce sanctions, he's unsure it will matter.He also referenced recent calls with both Putin (on July 3) and Zelensky (on July 4), calling the latter “very strategic.” On sanctions, Trump noted ongoing Senate efforts but cast doubt on their effectiveness, saying Russia has become largely sanctions-proof.Overall, Trump seems increasingly pragmatic and reluctant, signaling a potential shift back to a strategy of disengagement if he believes the conflict is unwinnable or politically costly.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Trump Admits: PUTIN's NOT STOPPING /Lt Col Daniel DavisSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.