Asia Centric by Bloomberg Intelligence

The aviation industry has suffered numerous setbacks recently, from tragic accidents to production delays and quality issues at manufacturer Boeing. There are also looming challenges including slower economic growth globally that may curb spending and demand. But one corner of the industry has been thriving since the pandemic – aircraft leasing. Tim Bacchus, a veteran analyst with more than 30 years of experience in the aviation space, believes that profits in the aircraft leasing industry – the companies that purchase and rent these planes – could jump by more than 70% over the next three years. He joins John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva on the Asia Centric podcast.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

China, the world's second-largest economy, is facing a demographics crisis. Its population fell in 2024 for the third straight year and is projected to halve by the end of the century, while marriages – tightly linked to childbirth in the country – plunged to a record low. The trend of declining birthrates and an aging population, which threatens the labor market and growth, comes even after the government lifted its one-child policy and added a raft of measures to support families.Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Ada Li spent more than a year gathering data from local governments and uncovering the cultural and social reasons behind the trends – with some startling conclusions. She speaks with John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva about why the government is unable to reverse the decline, how the cost of childcare is just one part of the problem, and why – surprisingly – it may not be so bad for consumer companies.Read Ada’s full research (https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/SN47X8T0AFB7) and related news stories about Asia's baby shortage (https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/SM8W0PDWLU68) on the Bloomberg Terminal.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

After many months of threats, the US has imposed 10% tariffs on all Chinese goods coming into the country and China retaliated immediately, launching an investigation into Google and putting its own levies on a range of American goods including LNG. Thus begins a new era of protectionism. The tariffs and any additional moves are set to slow economic growth in China, which is already struggling to boost consumer spending, reboot its property sector and lure more foreign investment. This is likely just the beginning, with higher levies to come in a repeat of the 2018-19 trade war. Despite the headwinds, Chinese President Xi Jinping still has a lot of tools at his disposal. Helen Qiao, chief economist for Greater China at Bank of America, joins John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva to gauge the impact in the world's second largest economy and what could lay ahead.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Investing in Asia after its financial crisis of 1997, or in the US following the dot-com bubble or the GFC, would have delivered good performance over the following decade, says Daniel Rupp, CIO and founder of Parkway Capital. Daniel joins John Lee on the Asia Centric podcast to discuss why he launched an Asia-focused long-only fund at the beginning of 2024 – at the height of investor pessimism toward China. He also sees vast stock picking opportunities across the region and discusses why active rather than passive management might make more sense in Asia than the US.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Donald Trump is set to disrupt trade across Asia in a repeat of his previous administration, but things are different this time around. He’s expanding his focus beyond China, targeting countries he says pose national security threats or have large trade deficits with the US. Many countries across Asia that benefited from the last trade war may find themselves in the crosshairs. In other words, it's set to be a lot more complicated this time. Sonal Varma, chief economist Asia ex-Japan at Nomura Singapore, joins Katia Dmitrieva and John Lee to unpack what the next four years may look like for Asia.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Esther Wong, founder of 3C AGI Partners and former managing director at SenseTime, dives into AI's transformative potential in venture capital. She explores why Asia is the ideal ground for AI innovation, highlighting investment opportunities in Southeast Asia, particularly Singapore. The conversation addresses sustainability challenges in AI and the geopolitical risks affecting investments, especially in China. Wong also shares her insights on future technologies, including the intriguing concept of data centers in space.

South Korea's short-lived martial law and impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol has shocked the world and crushed confidence in Asia's fourth-largest economy. Even before these events, the country was suffering from sluggish economic growth combined with the worst-performing stock market and currency in the region throughout 2024. What's next for South Korea's political process and what will it take to revive its financial markets? Hyosung Kwon, an economist at Bloomberg Economics in Seoul, joins John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva to discuss the political and economic risks that lie ahead for South Korea.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's that time of year when we look to what the next 12 months have in store. Currencies are set to weaken against a strong dollar, so which ones may provide a degree of safety? Equities outperformed in 2024 but tariffs hang over trade-sensitive countries and the tech and AI sectors may have peaked. Where can investors find the most value? And geopolitical risk and a new US-China trade war have yet to be fully priced into the market, so what does that mean for credit? Asia Centric convenes a panel of Bloomberg Intelligence analysts to preview 2025. Joining hosts John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva this week are Stephen Chiu, chief Asia FX and rates strategist, Marvin Chen, senior equity strategist, and senior credit strategist Timothy Tan.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hong Kong nightlife isn't what it used to be, with fewer revelers spending less than in the pre-pandemic boom – indicative, perhaps, of wider political and demographic changes taking place in the city. Yet entertainment and property mogul Allan Zeman – known as the “father of Lan Kwai Fong” after the bar area he established in the 1980s – remains upbeat and optimistic. Despite business being slower and rents lower, he welcomes the influx of mainland visitors as new tenants adapt to the changes. For Zeman, Hong Kong is far from over. He joins hosts John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva on the Asia Centric podcast to discuss Hong Kong’s changing landscape. Patrick Wong, senior property analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, also outlines the challenges facing office landlords and luxury retailers – and reveals who stands to gain.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US President-elect Donald Trump is already providing a preview of what's to come for US-China relations when he enters the White House, appointing several China hawks to his team and vowing to impose additional tariffs. Stephen Roach, economist and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, believes the world should take Trump at his word over tariff threats and that it signals his second term could be more contentious than the first.Roach also defends his controversial comments earlier this year that "Hong Kong is over" as ties with the mainland strengthen and the economy remains weak. He joins John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva on the Asia Centric podcast.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.