Uncertainty abounds - even as we get better data on treatments, with the big RCTs beginning to report, and new trials on masks, the evidence remains uncertain, in both the statistical realm (confidence intervals crossing 0) and in what to do in the face of that continuing lack of clear effect. As always Helen Macdonald and Duncan Jarvies are looking at the evidence, and this week are joined by John Brodersen, professor of general practice at the University of Copenhagen. Helen talks to Bram Rochwerg, methodology lead on the WHO treatment guidelines for covid, about why their latest review has stopped recommending remdesivir for covid-19 treatment. John tells us about the Danmask study - what question it was actually trying to answer. We also discuss the ways in which there is a tendency to express certainty where there is none, and why distrusting simple solutions to complex problems is a good rule of thumb. Reading list: A living WHO guideline on drugs for covid-19 https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3379 Covid-19’s known unknowns https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3979 Effectiveness of Adding a Mask Recommendation to Other Public Health Measures to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Danish Mask Wearers https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-6817

In this talk evidence covid-19 update, we’re taking on risk - how do you figure out your individual risk of dying from the disease? Try QCovid, but remember that it’s figuring out your risk back in April. When it comes to talking about risk, very few people actually engage with the number, so Alex Freeman from the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge joins us to describe their research into more effective ways of presenting it. Huseyin Naci, from the London School of Economics, returns to the podcast to talk to us about the problems of pulling all the trial data together, and where covid-19 has made people work together most effectively in tackling that issue. Reading list; Living risk prediction algorithm (QCOVID) for risk of hospital admission and mortality from coronavirus 19 in adults https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3731 Repurposed antiviral drugs for COVID-19 –interim WHO SOLIDARITY trial results https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.15.20209817v1 Producing and using timely comparative evidence on drugs: lessons from clinical trials for covid-19 https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3869.full

In this Talk Evidence covid-19 update, Jon Deeks, professor of biostatistics at the University of Birmingham gives us an update on testing technology. Will the point of care tests make a different to big live events, and how research and regulation need to change to tame the testing wild west. Paul Glasziou, professor of evidence based practice at at Bond University has set up a new collaboration to try and get better at creating evidence for non-drug/vaccine control of pandemics - and ponders why we're good at drug research, but terrible at other kinds.

This episode was recorded on 18 September - just before the news came out about the new lockdown measures. We’ll hear Carl and Helen’s thoughts, but we also want to hear a broad range of views - so get in touch at bmj.com/podcasts. (1.15) The kids are back in school, and people are worried about the infection spreading. Helen takes us through the ISCARIC data on children's symptoms and outcomes from covid-19. (5.50) David Ludwig, professor of pediatrics at Harvard Medical School and BMJ editor, joins us to give an overview of paediatric covid. (15.30) Carl has thoughts about the spread of covid, and how it seems to be mirroring other respiratory illnesses. (18.00) We wonder about the evidence for the "rule of six"

There are have been local lockdowns in the UK, in places such as Oldham, Birmingham, Manchester – but what is the criteria for making that decision? In the non-Covid world: does honey alleviate symptoms in upper-respiratory tract infections? When does unexpected weight-loss warrant further investigation for cancer in primary care? Plus, in the light of findings from the Cumberlege review of safety in medical devices, the team discuss the issue of doctors’ declaration of interests.

1.00) Carl has been looking at PCR testing, and explains why it picks up both viable SARS-cov-2, but also fragments of it’s RNA - leading to potential over diagnosis. (8.50 ) What did the Living systematic review and accompanying guidelines say about treatment options for covid-19 (14.35) Helen talks to Reed Siemieniuk,  general internist from McMaster University, about creating a living network meta-analysis, to try and synthesis all the evidence on covid-19 (22.48) Helen also talks to Bram Rochwerg, associate professor at McMaster University and consultant intensivist at Hamilton Health Sciences, about turning the outcomes of a meta-analysis into guidelines, and why at the moment they’re still calling for more evidence on Remdesivir (30.08) Finally, there are worries about the uncertainty expressed in the living review - and in the way in which we communicate that. Helen goes back to Reed to find out how the review might evolve in the future. (33.50) Covid isn’t just an acute disease, there is emerging consensus that it’s systemic effects lead to long term problems for some patients - but there’s a lot of uncertainty there. (38.40) Carl talks about the IMMDS review and his involvement in it - and what recommendations we’ll be covering in future Talk Evidence programmes. Reading list: Drug treatments for covid-19: living systematic review and network meta-analysis -https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m2980 Remdesivir for severe covid-19: a clinical practice guideline - https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m2924 Management of post-acute covid-19 in primary care - https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3026

Fresh outbreaks of covid in Europe and a wave of infections in the United States have been in the news this week, highlighting the renewed need for social distancing – but to what extent? In this edition, we explore the real-world evidence for physical distancing measures as well as the research into whether or not facemasks make us behave more recklessly. We also discuss the non-covid themes of research transparency and a BMJ investigation into the lucrative business of orphan drugs.

Vaccines have been in the news this week - but when you dig into the stories, it turns out that the hype is about phase 1 trials. We're a long way from being sure any of the 150 possible vaccines being developed actually work. In this talk evidence we're talking to a researcher, a regulator, and a manufacturer about the way in covid-19 is upending normal vaccine development, which hurdles they'll have to reach to get onto the market, and how we'll know which one to choose when they are there. This week (1.10) We said that covid would have a knock-on effect on other treatments, and Helen looks at some research into acute coronary syndrome admissions in the UK. (6.53) Peter Doshi, assistant professor of pharmaceutical health services research at the University of Maryland School of Pharmacy and an editor for The BMJ, tells us what to watch out for in the PICO for a vaccine study. (15.20) Marco Cavaleri, head of Biological Health Threats and Vaccines Strategy at the European Medicines Agency, explains what regulators are looking for when thinking about licencing a vaccine - and how covid has made different agencies around the world align their requirements. (22.22) Philip Cruz, UK head of vaccines at GSK, explains how a manufacturer tests their vaccines, and how they use adaptive study design to past regulatory hurdles and provide information for those choosing which vaccine to use. Reading list Lancet paper - COVID-19 pandemic and admission rates for and management of acute coronary syndromes in England https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31356-8/fulltext ONS Data - Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional: week ending 3 July 2020 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/latest The BMJ editorial - Vaccines, convalescent plasma, and monoclonal antibodies for covid-19 https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m2722 WHO report - Draft landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines Research Methods & Reporting The Adaptive designs CONSORT Extension (ACE) statement: a checklist with explanation and elaboration guideline for reporting randomised trials that use an adaptive design https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m115

In this week's Talk Evidence we're hearing about how the death rate has dropped below average, disappointment about HIV drugs for covid-19 treatment, a trial to reduce polypharmacy, and why academic promotions matter to everyone else. 1.35 - Carl gives us one of his death updates 3.30 - Helen asks if it’s finally time to be able to do the international comparisons we’ve been waiting for? 16.10 - New research suggests that extreme PPE prevents transmission - but PPE came with a whole range of other viral suppression measures, and they all work together. 21.30 - The Recovery trial has said that  lopinavir-ritonavir isn’t effective against covid - enough for them to stop the arm of that trial. We talk about this and more treatment evidence. 24.00 - Can a digital intervention reduce poly pharmacy? A new trial on bmj.com says no, but we talk about the composite endpoint and the way the trial is powered. 36.25 - Why academic promotion matters to non academics

This week we're looking beyond the press release for dexamethasone, the long awaited review of antibody testing, and how well people are recovering after surviving acute covid-19. (2.36) The preprint for dexamethasone is finally out - considerably after the press release. Carl digs into it to find out how good the news actually is. (8.49) There are a couple of newly published systematic reviews on antibody testing, so we return to our testing guru Jon Deeks - professor of biostatistics at the University of Birmingham to give us an update. (23.52)Covid-19, it became apparent as the pandemic grew, was more than a respiratory disease - there are systemic effects on almost all organs. As people are recovering from the worst ravages of the disease, the long term consequences of those effects are becoming more clear - Lynne Turner-Stokes, professor of rehabilitation medicine at King's College London. Reading list; Effect of Dexamethasone in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19: Preliminary Report https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.22.20137273v1 Cochrane review of antibody tests for covid-19 DOI: 10.1002/14651858.CD013652 British society of rehabilitation medicine guidelines for rehab after covid-19. https://www.bsrm.org.uk/downloads/covid-19bsrmissue1-published-27-4-2020.pdf