Maggie Lake Talking Markets

Maggie Lake sits down with Harry Melandri, senior advisor to Arque Advisors and author of the Respice Finem Substack, to wrap up a dramatic week for markets. Late breaking news that the Trump Administration may levy taxes on Canada, Mexico and China as soon as Feb 1st sparked selling and a whole lot of confusion. Harry talks about the interplay between politics and the markets and why he thinks the Fed may keep rates lower than they want. , Don't miss out on future episodes - get on the list here: https://maggielake.markets/notify-me Connect with me on Substack: https://maggielake.substack.com Connect with me on Twitter: https://x.com/maggielake Connect with Harry on Substack: https://respicefinemmacro.substack.com/ Chapters 00:00 Tariffs and Market Reactions 06:01 Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics 12:55 Fiscal Policy and Deficit Challenges 18:51 The Future of Interest Rates 25:03 Investment Opportunities in a Volatile Market *We know you get this, but gotta say it anyway - this show is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.

The Fed held rates steady, but it didn't take long for President Trump to criticize Powell. Maggie Lake sits down with Kevin Muir, author of the Macro Tourist newsletter to talk about interest rates, the impact of Trump tariff policy and why he thinks US equities are at risk for a big correction. They also talk about why he is bearish Canada and why every investor need to pay attention to foreign exchange markets. . Don't miss out on future episodes - get on the list here: https://maggielake.markets/notify-me Connect with me on Substack: https://maggielake.substack.com Connect with me on Twitter: https://x.com/maggielake For more on Kevin's work: https://substack.com/@themacrotourist 00:00 - Introduction: Kevin Muir on Market Risks and Opportunities 00:30 - Is the Fed on Hold? What’s Next for Interest Rates 01:20 - Market Overconfidence: The Cliff of Overconfidence vs. Wall of Worry 03:40 - AI, Tech, and the Market’s Reaction to DeepSeek 06:15 - Market Euphoria: Signs of a Topping Pattern? 08:38 - Rotation Risks: Will Small Caps and Value Stocks Take Over? 11:26 - Is Gold a Safe Haven or a Central Bank Game? 14:22 - How Bearish Is Kevin? The One-Year S&P Outlook 17:15 - Commodities: Copper, Platinum, and Palladium Opportunities 21:26 - Canada’s Economic Challenges: Housing, Debt, and Immigration 26:42 - Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Canada’s Vulnerability 30:49 - Trump’s Economic Plans and the Market’s Complacency 35:13 - The Biggest Market Risk: FX Volatility on the Horizon 37:52 - Closing Thoughts: How to Navigate an Uncertain Market

China's DeepSeek AI has reportedly matched the performance of OpenAI and other models at a fraction of the cost. The news sent US tech stocks plummeting Monday, with Nvidia shares losing nearly 17%. Jacob Shapiro, Head of Geopolitical and Macro at The Bespoke Group, joins Maggie Lake today to discuss the market and geopolitical implications of the news. Will this help or hinder a deal with China? Jacob also weighs in on Mexico, the Ukraine war and why Germany may be the most important country to watch. Don't miss out on future episodes - get on the list here: https://maggielake.markets/notify-me Connect with me on Substack: https://maggielake.substack.com Connect with me on Twitter: https://x.com/maggielake *We know you get this, but gotta say it anyway - this show is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. 00:00 - Introduction: Jacob Shapiro 01:00 - Is China's DeepSeek What Caused the Market Sell-Off 04:40 - It Hurst Much More to Lose 06:35 - China’s AI Strategy: Threat or Overhyped? 11:10 - Trump’s Trade Policies: Bluff or Real Economic Shift? 18:30 - Could Countries Turn to China? 22:25 - The Risk of Germany Pivoting Away from the US 25:50 - Ukraine, Russia, and the Role of China in Ending the War 28:25 - The Future of US Manufacturing and Trade Policy 34:15 - Closing Thoughts: Filtering Noise and Finding Real Signals

To wrap up the week on Talking Markets, Maggie Lake sits down with Ben Miller, CEO of Fundrise - a company aims to give investors a path to private markets. Ben invests in both commercial real estate and late stage tech which gives him a unique perspective on two areas in the news. He and Maggie discuss where we are in the AI cycle (early innings) and where he thinks the next big movers will be (killer apps). The also talk about commercial real estate which Ben thinks will turn the corner this year. He sees interesting value v. equities in certain areas. Don't miss out on future episodes - get on the list here: https://maggielake.markets/notify-me Connect with me on Substack: https://maggielake.substack.com Connect with me on Twitter: https://x.com/maggielake *We know you get this, but gotta say it anyway - this show is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. 00:00 - Intro with Ben Miller 00:30 - The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: AI vs. Real Estate 02:00 - Fundrise’s Evolution: From Real Estate to AI Investing 03:57 - How Fundrise Gives Investors Access to Private Tech Companies 08:00 - AI Boom or Bubble? Lessons from Past Tech Cycles 12:00 - The Risk of AI Startups: Which Companies Will Survive? 19:15 - Why More Companies Are Avoiding IPOs 24:20 - AI’s Infrastructure Boom: The Future of Data Centers 27:25 - Bond Yields and the Real Estate Market Outlook 36:55 - The Next AI Breakthrough: Where Will the Killer App Come From? 40:30 - Closing Thoughts: Real Estate, Markets, and Investor Strategies

Maggie Lake sits down with Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX Group, to discuss why liquidity issues, the California wildfires, and other factors may mean Treasury market sell-offs are the “new normal.” They also discuss the risks facing some tech companies as they try to navigate the new Trump administration and where Vincent sees the most opportunity as the MAGA agenda moves forward. Don't miss out on future episodes - get on the list here: https://maggielake.markets/notify-me Connect with me on Substack: https://maggielake.substack.com Connect with me on Twitter: https://x.com/maggielake *We know you get this, but gotta say it anyway - this show is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Chapters 00:00Market Dynamics and the Trump Administration's Influence 11:33 Inflation Trends and Their Impact on Treasuries 19:30 The Future of Bond Yields and Market Liquidity 20:02 Foreign Investment and U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics 22:18 Liquidity Challenges and Market Volatility 25:35 Global Economic Comparisons: U.S. vs. U.K. and Brazil 26:59 The Role of Treasury Management in Economic Stability 28:52 Bitcoin vs. Government Bonds: A Future Perspective 30:21 Assessing Risk in Current Market Conditions 33:52 Opportunities Amidst Economic Uncertainty

A listener once joked the Cem is from the future and that doesn't feel far off.! As always, Cem brings his unique understanding of the options and derivatives market to shed light on the short term flows impacting stocks and bonds. Maggie's also gets his take on what Trump's first 100 days might look like, where he sees risks building, and how investors can prepare for what he sees as the long term trend of higher inflation and higher rates. Warning - something will break. Don't miss out on future episodes - get on the list here: https://maggielake.markets/notify-me Connect with me on Substack: https://maggielake.substack.com Connect with me on Twitter: https://x.com/maggielake 00:00 - Introduction: Volatility and Market Insights with Cem Karsan 00:30 - Post-Election Market Trends and Liquidity Flows 03:23 - Counter-Trend Rally or Something More? 05:55 - Positioning and Sentiment in 2025 Markets 08:41 - Options and Derivatives: Their Role in Price Action 13:43 - Rising Treasury Yields and Inflation Risks 18:25 - Long-Term Interest Rates: Breaking Points Ahead? 22:27 - Populism, Fiscal Stimulus, and Inflation Trends 30:26 - Yield Curve Control: Can It Work in This Environment? 37:13 - Closing Thoughts: Navigating a Post-Election Year *We know you get this, but gotta say it anyway - this show is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.

Maggie Lake sits down with Mish Schneider, Chief Strategist at MarketGauge.com, to discuss today's CPI numbers and what they mean for markets, the January trade trend reset, the weather factors putting pressure on energy and grain prices, sectors MarketGauge likes right now, and MIsh's top 3 picks. For more on Mish's work: https://marketgauge.com/ Don't miss out on future episodes - get on the list here: https://maggielake.markets/notify-me Connect with me on Substack: https://maggielake.substack.com Connect with me on Twitter: https://x.com/maggielake00:00 - Introduction: Talking Markets with Mish Schneider 00:30 - Market Rally and Soft Landing Narrative 02:15 - January Trend Trade Reset and Key Levels to Watch 05:26 - Inflation and Treasury Market Outlook 09:13 - Trading in a Headline-Driven Market 13:30 - Volatility Ahead: Commodities and Stagflation Risks 17:35 - Stock Picking Opportunities for 2025 20:29 - Industrial and Made-in-America Resurgence 24:21 - Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Altcoin Strategies 28:54 - AI Investments: From Hardware to Software *We know you get this, but gotta say it anyway - this show is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.

US Treasury bond yields continue to rise and US stocks are under pressure as investors worry the Fed may be done cutting rates. Are higher rates here to stay? Maggie Lake sits down with Darius Dale, Founder of 42 Macro, to preview the inflation data due out this week and what it might mean for Fed policy. They'll also talk about what Darius means when he says investors need to beware the triple S'es - size, sequence and scope. You can find more of Darius's work here: https://42macro.com/?utm_source=youtu... Don't miss out on future episodes - get on the list here: https://maggielake.markets/notify-me Connect with me on Substack: https://maggielake.substack.com Connect with me on Twitter: https://x.com/maggielake 00:00 - Introduction: Darius Dale on 2025 Market Challenges 00:30 - Wide and Widening Economic Outcomes: What Lies Ahead 02:28 - Sticky Inflation: Why the Fed’s 2% Target Is Unlikely 05:49 - Policy Shifts Under the Trump Administration: Risks and Opportunities 09:59 - The Impact of Labor Costs and Productivity on Inflation 14:12 - Treasury Financing Policies and Market Volatility 18:49 - Global Debt Refinancing Needs in 2025 21:39 - Inflation and the Bond Market: Are Higher Rates Sustainable? 26:31 - Economic System vs. Market System: Can They Handle Higher Rates? 30:20 - Preparing for a Volatile Year: Investor Risk Management Strategies *We know you get this, but gotta say it anyway - this show is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.

When Jared Dillian turns his eye toward Canada, we pay attention. Jared has a long history trading Canada and right now, he thinks: "If you want another shot at an economically unfree country becoming free, look at Canada." Maggie Lake sits down with the editor of the Daily Dirtnap and founder of JaredDillianMoney.com to talk about why he thinks Canada might be the next Argentina. They also unpack the stronger than expected jobs number, what it says about the US economy and bond yields. For more of Jared's work: https://www.dailydirtnap.com/ And Co-host of the ‪@MacroDirtCast‬ Don't miss out on future episodes - get on the list here: https://maggielake.markets/notify-me Connect with me on Substack: https://maggielake.substack.com Connect with me on Twitter: https://x.com/maggielake *We know you get this, but gotta say it anyway - this show is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.

Bond yields are on the rise around the world, raising concerns of a sovereign debt crisis. What's driving rates higher and what will that mean for global equities? Maggie Lake sits down with Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Financial Group, to discuss the market action. Peter will also break down the latest economic data and talk about where he sees opportunity in these volatile markets. For more of Peter's work, read The Boock Report here: https://peterboockvar.substack.com/ Don't miss out on future episodes - get on the list here: https://maggielake.markets/notify-me Connect with me on Substack: https://maggielake.substack.com Connect with me on Twitter: https://x.com/maggielake *We know you get this, but gotta say it anyway - this show is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.