Words & Numbers

There's no way to sugar-coat it. Social Security is going to fail. There are, of course, ways to possibly extend its life for a few years, or even decades, but ultimately, like all Ponzi schemes, it will collapse. By the federal government's and the Social Security Board of Trustees' own admissions, the Social Security program will be paying out more than it takes in in just 4 years. At current rates (and assuming the federal government fully pays back the more than $5 trillion it "borrowed" from Social Security's accounts), the program will be completely out of money in about 17 years. What does this situation mean for current working Americans? Is there any way to solve this problem? Join Antony Davies and James Harrigan as they discuss this and more on this week's episode of Words and Numbers.   Quick hits   Splitting up Amazon https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/29/former-walmart-us-ceo-congress-consider-splitting-up-amazon.html   National pencil day https://nationaldaycalendar.com/days-2/national-pencil-day-march-30/   Foolishness of the week: Cancer warnings on coffee   https://fee.org/articles/why-californias-lawsuit-industry-wants-you-to-think-coffee-causes-cancer/?utm_source=FEE+Email+Subscriber+List&utm_campaign=ca27aafa08-MC_FEE_DAILY_2018_04_02&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_84cc8d089b-ca27aafa08-107137661   https://www.cancer.org/cancer/cancer-causes/general-info/cancer-warning-labels-based-on-californias-proposition-65.html   https://www.refinery29.com/2018/04/195249/coffee-cancer-warning-label-california-starbucks-dunkin-donuts-reaction?bucketed=true   https://nypost.com/2018/03/30/de-blasio-eyes-vacancy-tax-for-greedy-landlords-seeking-top-dollar/?utm_source=facebook_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons   Topic of the week: Social Security   https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-jeffrey/social-security-administration-spending-tops-1-trillion-first-time https://www.ssa.gov/policy/trust-funds-summary.html https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v75n1/v75n1p1.html https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v70n3/v70n3p111.html https://www.ssa.gov/history/nestor.html https://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/18/us/how-privatized-social-security-works-in-galveston.html https://www.state-journal.com/2018/01/25/you-asked-can-kentucky-teachers-retirement-system-participants-receive-social-security/ https://www.teacherpensions.org/blog/why-aren%E2%80%99t-all-teachers-covered-social-security https://www.cbsnews.com/news/matt-bevin-kentucky-lawmakers-pass-pension-overhaul-despite-teacher-ire/   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Pundits are declaring that America is a nation divided. In fairness, this is a true statement, but it's not a new phenomenon. America has been a nation divided since at least the election of 1800. That said, the division is not a dichotomous one. Recent data show that a large and growing number of Americans self-identify as neither Republican nor Democrat, but as Independent. It would appear that a large number of Americans are growing increasingly tired of the ever-more extreme stances of the two major parties, instead favoring more moderate approaches to governance. An excellent microcosmic example of this is the recent special election in Pennsylvania Congressional District 18, a district that in the 2016 presidential election voted in favor of Donald Trump by 20 percentage points. Despite its deeply red tendencies and both the President and Vice President campaigning in support of the Republican congressional candidate, PA18 narrowly elected a Democrat to represent it. A Democrat, it should be noted, who publicly distanced himself from major Democratic leaders and campaigned on issues more typically associated with right-wing politicians. What does this mean for American politics going forward? Join James Harrigan and Antony Davies as they discuss this and more on this week's episode of Words and Numbers. Quick hits The singular “they” http://theweek.com/articles/758082/why-need-accept-singular?utm_source=links&utm_medium=website&utm_campaign=facebook https://blog.oxforddictionaries.com/2012/06/06/he-or-she-versus-they/  South Korea encourages people not to work so much https://www.mirror.co.uk/tech/south-korea-start-turning-computers-12237489  Foolishness of the Week: YouTube bans all gun related content https://thenextweb.com/google/2018/03/21/youtube-banning-gun-videos-now-theyre-reappearing-pornhub/  https://reason.com/blog/2018/03/23/youtube-says-it-will-be-shutting-down-gu  Topic of the week: Moderation http://www.insidesources.com/move-toward-moderation/   http://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx        Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The American federal government has a serious spending problem. The federal debt, the sum total of all the money the government has borrowed, has hit $21 trillion, with a cool $1 trillion of that coming from Trump's first year in office. That is, undeniably, a lot of money, and media outlets all over the country are crowing about it being the first time a single-year deficit has been so high, but it simply isn't so. Even by fairly kind calculations, it's happened at least three times before—once under George W. Bush and at least twice under Barack Obama. Regardless, the federal debt is soaring, and eventually, that debt is going to come due. And when it does, what does that mean for Americans individually and on the whole? Join Antony Davies and James Harrigan as they discuss this and more on this week's episode of Words and Numbers. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Rumors have been circulating recently that the Trump Administration is considering including drug dealing among those crimes that can be subject to capital punishment. That's just a nice way of saying "the death penalty." In an effort to signal to his supporters that he's "tough on crime" and serious about the opioid crisis, President Trump has indicated his positive view of the death penalty for drug offenses in countries like Singapore and the Philipines. But what is the current status of the death penalty in the United States today? How has the Supreme Court ruled on the death penalty in the past? And isn't this a legislative issue, anyway? Join James Harrigan and Antony Davies as they discuss this and more on this week's episode of Words and Numbers.   Quick hits Altruistic business https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/new-jersey-businessman-drops-fees-for-shivering-neighbors/  Falling space junk http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5486985/Lower-Michigan-crash-site-falling-Chinese-space-station.html  https://www.npr.org/2011/09/21/140641362/where-falling-satellite-lands-is-anyones-guess  Foolishness of the week https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/scientology-appears-poised-launch-tv-network-1093640  Topic of the week: Capital punishment https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/maps-and-graphics/countries-that-still-have-the-death-penalty/  https://www.cnn.com/2013/07/19/us/death-penalty-fast-facts/index.html  https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/02/world/asia/philippines-drug-war.html  http://news.gallup.com/poll/1606/death-penalty.aspx  http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/09/29/support-for-death-penalty-lowest-in-more-than-four-decades/  https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/death-penalty-international-perspective    Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Last week, President Trump announced his intention to place tariffs on steel and aluminum. Unfortunately for the president—and everyone else, should these tariffs be imposed—more than a century of economic data make it very clear that tariffs are a net negative for the economy. But what are tariffs, anyway? Why are they so awful? And, if they are, why does any country impose them? Join Antony Davies and James Harrigan as they talk about this and more on this week's episode of Words and Numbers.   Quick Hits   United replaces bonuses with lotteries https://www.bizjournals.com/chicago/news/2018/03/02/united-airlines-replaces-bonuses-with-lottery.html   China bans things https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/01/asia/china-letter-ban-trnd/index.html https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5701287/china-xi-jinping-president-winnie-the-pooh-banned/ http://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg-china-reincarnation-law-20160307-story.html Foolishness of the Week http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/bs-md-ci-children-soda-bill-20180213-story.html  Topic of the Week: Trade and Tariffs http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2018/03/that-was-then-this-is-now-13.html http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/23/news/economy/trump-tariff-power/index.html http://www.walkerd.people.cofc.edu/Readings/Trade/iowacarcrop.pdf http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=61826 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_the_United_States https://japantoday.com/category/business/toyota-us-tariffs-will-'substantially'-increase-car-prices http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2018/03/that-was-then-this-is-now-13.html     Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

After the horrific school shooting in Parkland, FL, on February 14th, the "debate" about gun control has reignited in the US. Pundits on both sides of the issue are over-generalizing, taking assumptions to the extreme, and generally talking past each other. But one thing that remains constant is persistent cry for "common sense" gun regulations. What constitutes "common sense" varies from person to person, but they all involve the restriction or outright ban on certain types or styles of firearms. If the War on Drugs taught us anything, it's that prohibition doesn't work, but at the same time, any number of school shootings is too many. So if bans aren't a good option, what might be? Join James Harrigan and Antony Davies as they talk about this and more on this week's episode of Words and Numbers. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In the last two and a half generations, the number of students who go on to attend college, as a percentage of the population, has tripled. In 1959, about 20 percent of high school students went on to college. Since relatively few people were earning degrees, having one all but guaranteed getting a good, high-paying job. As a result, parents, high schools, and colleges began encouraging more and more high school students to go to college. Today, about 60 percent of high school students go on to college. But has the big push to get kids into college done anything to improve outcomes? Is the average $250,000 investment in a four-year degree at all worth it? If not, what alternatives exist? Join Antony Davies and James Harrigan as they talk about this and more on this week's episode of Words and Numbers. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Regulatory capture is a problem in this country. It happens pretty easily. Politicians can't be experts in everything, so they turn to actual experts for help with regulating various industries. The experts tend to be those who have already enjoy some measure of success in their field. The regulatory suggestions that these experts give politicians tend to make life easier for the already-established experts and harder for those competing with them. This kind of thing happens all too often and leads to gross regulatory overreach, such as Uber working to ban private ownership of self-driving cars. How do we prevent this or, at the very least, strike it down after the fact? Join James Harrigan, Antony Davies, and special guest Robert McNamara from the Institute for Justice as they discuss this and more on this week's episode of Words and Numbers. Quick hits http://triblive.com/news/education/career/13275149-74/carlow-university-launches-micro-masters-program  https://micromasters.mit.edu/  https://www.edx.org/micromasters  Foolishness of the week http://reason.com/blog/2018/02/08/jeff-sessions-advice-to-pain-patients-ta  Topic of the week: Occupational licensing and regulatory capture http://ij.org/staff/robert-mcnamara/  https://cei.org/blog/uber-wants-make-it-illegal-operate-your-own-self-driving-car-cities  https://repository.law.umich.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2720&context=articles    Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The fact that the United States' yearly deficit spending is set to soon top $1 trillion — an amount that is itself larger than most governments' entire operating budget — might be an indicator that the federal government has gotten too large. No matter which party is in power, the federal government and its attendant spending never really ceases to grow. We're taught in school a rose-colored tale of selfless public servants righteously chosen by solemn, considering voters to go to Washington to diligently represent their constituency's best interests. But is it true? Join James Harrigan and Antony Davies as they talk about this and more on this week's episode of Words and Numbers. Quick hits Federal deficit to top $1 trillion http://reason.com/archives/2018/01/04/trillion-dollar-deficit-deja-vu The DNC is broke http://theweek.com/speedreads/752743/dnc-reportedly-dead-broke-rnc-nearly-40-million Foolishness of the Week http://reason.com/blog/2018/02/02/inside-the-insane-battle-over-arizonas-d Topic of the week: The Security State and the Therapeutic State https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/omb/budget/fy2018/hist03z2.xls https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POP       Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Immigration is, as happens fairly routinely, an important topic in the national conversation these days. It's generally well-accepted that the United States is "a nation of immigrants," and yet there remains a stubborn skepticism about new immigrants. These concerns generally branch into two broad categories: economic concerns and social concerns. Economically, citizens seem to think that immigrants are "taking our jobs" or "a drain on the system." Socially, citizens are of the belief that immigrants are "undermining American culture." But are any of these concerns warranted? Join James Harrigan and Antony Davies as they discuss this and more on this week's episode of Words and Numbers. Quick Hits: Denver hires homeless people https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/denver-hired-homeless-people-perform-day-labor-city-100-landed-regular-jobs/  Koch donating $400 million to candidates https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/27/politics/koch-republican-election-candidates-donate/index.html  https://nrf.com/resources/consumer-research-and-data/holiday-spending/halloween-headquarters  https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/04/fourth-of-july-spending-by-the-numbers.html  https://www.opensecrets.org/overview/topindivs.php  Foolishness of the week https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/01/24/580228837/a-dozen-camels-disqualified-from-saudi-beauty-pageant-over-botox-injections  Topic of the week https://www.migrationpolicy.org/programs/data-hub/charts/Annual-Number-of-US-Legal-Permanent-Residents  http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/04/27/5-facts-about-illegal-immigration-in-the-u-s/  http://www.pewhispanic.org/2016/11/03/size-of-u-s-unauthorized-immigrant-workforce-stable-after-the-great-recession/  http://www.businessinsider.com/major-us-companies-founded-by-immigrants-2017-2  http://startupsusa.org/fortune500/#appendix  http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/19/news/economy/undocumented-immigrant-taxes/index.html  https://itep.org/wp-content/uploads/immigration2016.pdf  https://www.sba.gov/sites/default/files/advocacy/United_States.pdf https://www.sba.gov/sites/default/files/advocacy/United_States.pdf https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/09/undocumented-immigrants-and-taxes/499604/  http://www.philly.com/philly/opinion/commentary/despite-the-rancor-there-is-much-that-unites-americans-20171116.html    Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices